Westminstenders: Stuck in the Middle With TIGGERS

[RedToothBrush]

Well I don't know how we got here tonight.
We've got the feeling that something ain't right.
We're so scared as we leave the EU
And we're wondering how we'll get out of this stew

Antisemites to the left of me!
Dog Whistles to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

'Cause I'm stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.
And I'm wondering what it is we should do.
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face.
Losing control and running all over the place.

Clowns to the left of me!
Jokers to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

When you started off with rights
And you're starting to wonder if thats for life.
And all the politicians come crawling
Slap you on the back and say
Please . . .
Please . . .
Vote Leave and back EU Withdrawal

But we see it makes no sense at all.

Best to keep your money offshore
Than to visit the bookstore

Deniers to the left of me!
Islamaphobes to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

Its finally happened. FINALLY.

MPs have seen that their leaders have lost the plot and are hell bent on destruction and politicial ideology ahead of practicality and will justify the unjustifable in the face of democracy and they have jumped ship.

Enter stage left and stage right: The TIGGERS - members of The Independent Group.

Will there be more. Hard to say no. It seems almost certain there will be more.

Will it make a difference? Difficult to call, but these MPs would be driven out sooner or later. Such is our accelerating politicial polarisation and narrowing of views. This is their last stand. They have nothing left to lose on a personal level.

Whether you agree with the TIGGERS or still look to the other parties for policy, I do think that the emergence of the TIGGERS marks a feeling of optimism and much needed hope for many many Remainers / Moderates, even if it ultimately does fizzle out.

A reflection from 2017: People voted for Corbyn because they were looking for Hope. When he's failed to deliver that, its led to disillusionment and he can not pull the same trick again at a future GE. This makes that doubly so. People are STILL very much looking for that hope. If Brexit does go tits up in a big fashion, then what happens? To what direction do people look? I'm sure there will be the bitterest of recriminations, but... hope is a big deal. We need something...

Tick tick tick. 37 days til Brexit.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation

Monday’s Farming Today had a piece on pig farming in the UK, concerns about and possible opportunities after Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002llc

It’s at the beginning.

It's only the banks & insurance companies that specifically cite Brexit as the reason
and this is because they have to apply in court to shift funds and state the reasons there

Other companies, which still want to sell to UK consumers, avoid mentioning Brexit, because it's bad for sales to tell half of their customers that they made a serious mistake when voting in the 2016 ref

Probably only companies like Airbus and some component manufacturers feel they have the freedom to speak the truth, basically those who sell to companies, not individual consumers.

So it's not just NDAs keeping them all quiet

For me, it is first about stopping a Brexit disaster.
A single issue.

For that, much better that MPs aren't scurrying around organising a new party and hammering out policies on every other subject

• that brings too much chance of disagreement, which can quickly take the shine off a new grouping.

We need the maximum number of MPs from both parties to join, ideally to exceed the ERG numbers.
Then they become a real force - if there is time ....

Fixed policies on other issues can also reduce support in the country, at a time when we want to maximise support against a hard Brexit

Only after Brexit has been resolved is the time to really work at breaking the mould of party politics.

I wonder if China sees it as a chance to even the balance after the damage the British Empire did to them ? Brexiteers aren't the only ones with a (selective) passion for history.

I’ve been struck by the reporting on TIG particularly on the BBC, it’s entirely through the prism of party politics “show us your manifesto” type stuff. Even if the MPs in question have got it and genuinely want to break the mould, they’re pushing against an obdurate Establishment (for want of a better word) that can’t see beyond the next headline/scandal/manufactured crisis, and whose thought processes lie entirely within the current framework. I expect it’s what happens to the most idealistic of new politicians but on a bigger scale. It’s not just power that corrupts, it’s the whole system.
If we’re seeing the beginning of a political paradigm shift, it’s a very interesting time. If it fails, it’s an even more disappointing time than I thought it was.

DG - China will have to join the queue to dole out punishment. We've not got a great track record with other countries throughout history . Although, of course, UK is the only country that queues so it may just be a deluge.

Incidentally, were we hoping for a quick trade deal with Bangladesh ?

Yes, I said the same to dp yesterday, born, about the media questioning of the Tiggers. It was a really clear illustration of something that often gets lost at times like this, of how much the media manufactures the news, the viewpoints, the angle, and how much they stick to the same old tropes, same old way of doing things. They seemed to really struggle with the idea of anything new and simply revert to trying to fit it into pre-approved boxes.

I know this is Media 101 to everyone on here, but at times like this it's important to be reminded of it, I think. There was a palpable sense of frustration from the Blue TIGs yesterday when being asked, yeah yeah but what's your policy on XXX?

Yy the media questioning I think it was Kirsty Wark, she just kept repeating about policies you could sense Anna Soubry frustration through the screen.

Listening to Soubry on LBC

James Wong @ botanygeek
Just tried to order something online from Denmark.

Apparently they no longer sell to the UK, as orders accepted now may arrive after March 29 & might not be able to be fulfilled.

I can't even get work supplies delivered in the time frame our gov has to sort their mess out.

I ordered something last week which is through a British company but I know is produced in the Netherlands and I can't get otherwise.

It's just shipped this morning.

But in future it says I will have to pay customs on arrival. Which means having to go to the post office and pay an additional fee, which is a) a pain in the fucking arse and b) more expensive.

I know I will order more from them in the future but probably not as much for the above reason.

But yeah at least I'm not a business.

Me @ Reallooby
It’s incredible isn’t it. @astonmartin have said in January that as their lead times were 12 weeks for a car they were feeling effects then already too. It’s an entire omnishambles!

Eliza B
A thread from my husband and business partner, written one year ago. Not one of the challenges he's listed here has been addressed.

This list is not exhaustive.

There are 36 days until Brexit.

From 13 Feb 2018
Paul Carnahan @ pcarnahan
Thread: For our family business, there's no doubt #Brexit will have an impact - the question is how bad it will be. Meanwhile, the chaos surrounding Brexit leaves us in limbo, unable to continue the expansion which has helped us create jobs and aid other firms. @fascinatorfun

1. We sell cosmetic supplies and ingredients to home users and other SMEs - 66% of our sales are to customers in the EU. We rely on frictionless trade to get goods to these customers cheaply and quickly.

1. We sell cosmetic supplies and ingredients to home users and other SMEs - 66% of our sales are to customers in the EU. We rely on frictionless trade to get goods to these customers cheaply and quickly.

2. We sell to thousands of producers of soaps and cosmetics. The most obvious and possibly most pressing issue is the inevitable increase in cost and complexity of trade without access to the customs union and single market.

3. We already deal with customs clearance and fees when shipping to Norway and Switzerland which adds a few days’ delay on parcels to these places. The extra costs and delays are a definite barrier to tradie with these places. This will be EU-wide in future - a serious concern.

4. Now, we are in a market which allows us to freely move goods within that market. Post-Brexit, we will move from being a partner in that market to a competitor outside of it. Because of extra costs and delays, it will be hard to compete with firms like ours who still in the SM.

5. No one knows if there will be tariffs on the chemicals we sell post-Brexit, or if there will be quotas on how much we can send to the EU.

6. Many of the components used in the chemicals we sell are sourced from the EU. While the exchange rate has made our goods attractive to EU customers, any profits from export are wiped out by the increase in import costs. Even pre-Brexit we have see import-related costs rise.

7. The cosmetic chemicals we sell are regulated by REACH. After Brexit, we don’t know how these chemicals will be regulated. There is very little time for the UK to set up its own effective regulatory body. We have no idea how this will affect exports.

8. The end products our customers make are regulated by the EU Cosmetics Directive. Without complete compliance with EU laws and controls, our customers may face even more problems selling to EU markets. If demand for their products falls, demand for ours will also fall.

9. Post-Brexit, we have no idea how VAT will work when importing raw materials from the EU. If we are expected to pay VAT up front (we don’t right now), we’ll experience a negative impact on our cash flow.

10. Given the shambles the Government is making of negotiating and planning Brexit, we have little confidence they have had time to even consider the needs and complexities of our particular sector, or others out of the main industries. Chances of smooth transition? Near zero.

From an hour ago
UPDATE: A year on, with less than a month to go until Brexit, not a single one of these points has been answered, settled or otherwise resolved. We're in limbo, along with hundreds of thousands of other businesses.
This is criminal incompetence on the part of Government.

(sloppy editing turned this into 'less than a month to go...' rather than 'just over a month to go...' but since we'll be in the same position next week anyway, I'll leave it as it is)

It's easy for politicians to explain away the car industry stuff and think Brexit is going to be just fine. It's noticeable they are not remarking on how it affects smaller businesses and the massive affect of that. We have a high proportion of small to medium sized businesses in this country.

This could be catastrophic.

Me too for a bit, there’s a very angry chap on! AS doing well, good range of appropriate expressions on her face...

I should watch the webcast!

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/21/uk-and-ireland-retailers-warn-of-40-tariffs-on-food-in-no-deal-brexit

40% tariffs on some food. If it is even HALF that figure some people are in deep trouble.

My main question is WHY do ordinary leave voters still want this? I can understand the hyper rich ones still wanting it as they will be able to take advantage in a Dickensian world.

I agree with BigChoc. A cross party coalition of the sensible is needed to sort out Brexit-that is the overwhelming issue
I've found myself wondering if this is what the run up to a war is like. We are heading towards disaster but so many people have their heads in the sand and Theresa May is pursuing a policy of appeasement that isn't going to work.

They don’t understand what it will mean for them. Some people are really not good at drawing conclusions, especially uncomfortable ones.

Sorry that was in ans to littlespaces

PMK.

I've seen a little wavering from Leavers I've spoken to, but they still think it's going to be a difficult year where they class difficult as we won't get bananas or tomatoes. Even people who work as small business owners in the food sector.

Even people who work as small business owners in the food sector.

I suspect a no deal Brexit will shake out true businesspeople from the lucky ones ?

Never underestimate the power of the "it can't happen to me" delusion. People simply find it hard to really accept that really bad stuff can happen to them. There is still the idea that somebody will stop it, that 'they' won't let it happen. Bad things happen to other people in other places.

There are people who can't identify basic fruit and vegetables or name the PM in this country.

The idea that they can comprehend complex supply chains and pick apart and scrutinise what celebrity politicians Boris and Nig say, is probably a bit of a stretch. They just like what they've been told.

Then you have the rich types who will profit from No deal.

And the risk takers who think it worth a gamble.

And the low to middle incomers who are just plain apathetic to Brexit and politics who just think 'well the politicians wouldn't support it and do it, if it was going to be THAT bad - its got to be the rich professionals lying instead'

And there's the just plain racists who don't care as long as it hurts the immigrants more and if that upsets the liberals in the process 'haha bonus'.

And then there's who just see Remainers as arrogant do gooders who they want to take down a peg and punish just by getting Brexit through - some of whom are quite happy to cut off their nose to spite their face if it upsets the right people too.

There's loads of reasons.

Lots of different groups and lots of ignorance, denial and plain spite out there.

It's not pretty.

Oh there are definitely doubts creeping in.

I think that's going to get bigger in the next couple of weeks.

The last week in March will be interesting in terms of stick on shelves, if we still have no deal.

When will the penny drop? Been said before, but probably when shelves are bare, prices are up and holidays screwed in some way. By then it will be too late and already all done and dusted.

Laura Hughes @laurakHughes
Justine Greening: “If we simply become the Brexit party, then I do not believe we have a successful future ahead of us …. I don’t think I would be able to stay part of a party that was a Brexit party that had crashed us out of the European Union.”