Westminstenders: Stuck in the Middle With TIGGERS

[RedToothBrush]

Well I don't know how we got here tonight.
We've got the feeling that something ain't right.
We're so scared as we leave the EU
And we're wondering how we'll get out of this stew

Antisemites to the left of me!
Dog Whistles to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

'Cause I'm stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.
And I'm wondering what it is we should do.
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face.
Losing control and running all over the place.

Clowns to the left of me!
Jokers to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

When you started off with rights
And you're starting to wonder if thats for life.
And all the politicians come crawling
Slap you on the back and say
Please . . .
Please . . .
Vote Leave and back EU Withdrawal

But we see it makes no sense at all.

Best to keep your money offshore
Than to visit the bookstore

Deniers to the left of me!
Islamaphobes to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

Its finally happened. FINALLY.

MPs have seen that their leaders have lost the plot and are hell bent on destruction and politicial ideology ahead of practicality and will justify the unjustifable in the face of democracy and they have jumped ship.

Enter stage left and stage right: The TIGGERS - members of The Independent Group.

Will there be more. Hard to say no. It seems almost certain there will be more.

Will it make a difference? Difficult to call, but these MPs would be driven out sooner or later. Such is our accelerating politicial polarisation and narrowing of views. This is their last stand. They have nothing left to lose on a personal level.

Whether you agree with the TIGGERS or still look to the other parties for policy, I do think that the emergence of the TIGGERS marks a feeling of optimism and much needed hope for many many Remainers / Moderates, even if it ultimately does fizzle out.

A reflection from 2017: People voted for Corbyn because they were looking for Hope. When he's failed to deliver that, its led to disillusionment and he can not pull the same trick again at a future GE. This makes that doubly so. People are STILL very much looking for that hope. If Brexit does go tits up in a big fashion, then what happens? To what direction do people look? I'm sure there will be the bitterest of recriminations, but... hope is a big deal. We need something...

Tick tick tick. 37 days til Brexit.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation

{67chevvyimpala

1. I'm still on a high from yesterday...the voluntary group I started got £1k funding yesterday }

Well done!

I’ve gone from stockpiling to wondering if we should book an EU holiday for Easter. There are some good deals out there. Exit is not going to happen on 29th March there’s no way that the legislation can be in place in time. I don’t think we have the majority for a crash out or anything like it.

{Exit is not going to happen on 29th March}
Departure on 29 is the default condition. If all the MPs and cabinet simply stay in bed for the next month and a bit, departing will happen.
There are only a couple of options of 'doing' something that will change this.

efferlunt you can book. But the tips are:

1. Budget an extra up to £50pp for visa costs
2. Fly - the ferries might have issues but the EU has already unilaterally confirmed the planes will keep flying.
3. But make sure you only fly direct to destination AND that the flight is one that also was scheduled last year. No ‘extra’ flights will be permitted beyond those that were on last year’s timetable.
4. Pay in advance, but on a credit card.
5. Concert half your spending money now, to insulate against a dove in the pound.

Maybe nobody else is forward purchasing, but they’d run out of tinned peaches

A few weeks ago (29th) my local Tesco ran out of tinned mandarins and tinned pineapple and the shelves had labels that they wouldn't be in for a week (6th Feb).

I was in on Tuesday again. No tinned manadrins at all and no space for them on the shelf. I spent a good five mins trying to find them. Much to DSs annoyance.

(I took a photo of the empty shelf, so I know the dates and where the mandarins were. And they have not been moved to another shelf close by either)

The idea that purchasing habits are not out of the ordinary is one I find very hard to believe. Certainly in my local area.

Maybe sales aren't up in the books, simply because all the stock has simply gone and they can't show any higher because there isn't any more to buy!!

@Camomila I have 2 of those industrial sized bags of Tetley tea bags it comforts me to know I have over 800 cups of tea Our local Asda is slacking on the Easter egg front and have hardly any in. Tesco have loads (full one side of the aisle as normal) yet lots of long life items on the initial aisles.

I'm in Spain for half term - feeling very sad that we are being disconnected from other Europeans.

I know JC is going to Brussels with the agenda of seeing how we can move away from TMs red lines? But he endorses the red lines too, especially stopping FOM - that is the red line that causes most problems with closer Union models. So don't see what the purpose is other than trying to look statesmanlike?

With respect to the brave TIggers have as many people as possible liked and shared the TIggers Facebook page? Even if people would stick with their party in an election, showing support for the independents now has many pluses. I've commented to thank them for their bravery, the more vocal support they get it shows the government how discontented we all are and encourages others to join them - isolating the extremists.

I don't think their website is working yet - but facebook is
m.facebook.com/TheIndGroup/

My purchasing habits have significantly changed. I don't normally buy baked beans for a start but have bought 8 tins. Small one and I have enjoyed beans on toast twice this week. I'd forgotten how nice that meal is. Long life milk is not a normal purchase either, or bottled water. I have 8 cartons of milk and about 50 litres of water. If all goes fine then the milk will get used in cooking and hot chocolate and the water will be nice from the fridge on hot days.

David Phinnemore @Dphinnemore
"It is believed that Gove is using the threat of tariffs on Irish farmers as leverage as the UK seeks a favourable deal. He hopes that the sizeable rural lobby in Ireland will exert pressure on the Government here to yield on the issue of the backstop."

amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/britain-threatens-to-favour-brazilian-beef-over-irish-as-new-trade-war-looms-37837844.html?__twitter_impression=true
Britain threatens to favour Brazilian beef over Irish as new trade war looms
Brazilian meat to escape tariff blockade
UK tactics echo those used against de Valera

Ah that explains what Gove is up to.

Robert Peston @peston
.@PhilipHammondUK implicitly criticises @GavinWilliamson sabre rattling against China - saying trade relationship between UK and China “hasn’t been made easier by Chinese concerns about Royal Navy deployments in South China Sea”

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
Philip Hammond hits out at hardline Eurosceptics, describing them as a as a ‘small hardcore who are not willing to compromise’

Thanks leclerc this one is my baby and something I'm very proud of.

David Anderson @ bricksilk
Highly pertinent trade thread, explaining some of the underlying reasons why @UKHouseofLords has refused to progress the Trade Bill until Govt has published its process proposals for future trade agreements

David Henig @davidheniguk
There’s a trade debate in the Commons today. Only one question really needs to be asked of the government, which is why they have not published a trade strategy. Still if you need more, like what we should know by now… 1/ thread (long)

One of the Government’s stated priorities is a trade deal with the US. Michael Gove says we will not accept US food standards in the UK. The US will not do a deal on this basis. A US deal will also be hugely controversial. Why are we therefore proceeding? 2/

Another stated priority is joining CPTPP. This would also require the acceptance of US food standards. Joining CPTPP or a US trade deal would also mean the UK leaving the European standards community. What assessment has been made of the impact of this? 3/

How many trade deals does the Government think can be negotiated at any one time, and how will these trade deals interface with the negotiations that will also take place with the EU? What is the Government's view of likely timing? 4/

We now know that trade deals with large trading partners like Turkey, Japan and Korea will not be carried over in the event of no-deal Brexit. Why in this situation would these not be of a higher priority than new deals with Australia and New Zealand FTAs? 5/

We have heard a strong case is being made for reducing non-agricultural tariffs to zero and adopting global quotas for agriculture. What would the impact of this be on other countries desire to rollover existing trade deals or agree new ones? 6/

What assessment has been made of the total quantity of agricultural imports than could be imported tariff free without impact on UK producers? How does this affect UK trade policy 7/

What is the role of developing country preferences in UK trade policy? If tariff rates are generally reduced, what impact will have this on developing country exports in products like bananas or textiles which are already tariff free? 8/

What plans does the Department for International Trade have for dealing with the increase in business market access cases once such issues are no longer handled by the Commission? This applies deal or no deal. 9/

There are a range of trade policy tools that can be used for each country, including Free Trade Agreements, mutual recognition agreements, trade dialogues etc? Does the UK have a consolidated global plan for these? 10/

Can DIT guarantee that information for UK exporters that is currently only available on EU websites will be maintained on UK Government sites from the end of March? 11/

In the event of an EU deal is DIT aware of any country that will not agree to have their existing EU trade agreement applied to the UK? What will happen in this situation? 12/

In a deal situation, where UK companies have market access issues with an existing FTA partner how will these issues be handled given the UK will not be present at meetings between EU and the country concerned? 13/

The Secretary of State has said that digital trade should be at the heart of UK trade policy. What does this actually mean in terms of the contents of trade agreements? 14/

Services are notoriously difficult to liberalise in trade agreements. How will the UK Government therefore deliver gains for UK services companies in trade agreements, particularly given our own defensiveness on Mode 4 (movement of people)? 15/

What will the UK’s policy priorities be in new trade agreements? 16/

Does DIT believe there are any realistic prospect of any WTO agreements being completed in the near future, such as on e-commerce or services? What are they doing to make this happen? 17/

Does the Government have formal proposals as yet for how trade policy should be scrutinised by Parliament, in terms of negotiations, implementation etc? Would they accept European Parliament levels of scrutiny at minimum? 18/

Would the Government agree that a key lesson from Brexit is the importance of demonstrating their negotiating position reflects the view of the majority in Parliament? Do they think a US FTA negotiation would pass this test? 19/

Why did Government not tell businesses until recently that most EU trade agreements would not be replicated in the event of no-deal Brexit? Why have few negotiating updates been provided and will this be improved? 20/

What are the Government's plans with regards to Investor State Dispute Settlement? See letter from third sector groups, how will the interests of these groups, trade unions etc, be balanced with business interests? 21/

Given all of these questions are as yet unanswered, wouldn't it better to publish a proper trade strategy rather than have a fairly vague debate? When does the Government plan to table such a trade strategy? 22/ end

I think the short version of that is - the government do not understand trade.

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/21/uk-and-ireland-retailers-warn-of-40-tariffs-on-food-in-no-deal-brexit

We are hearing this more and more now. Will buy more cheese today as we used a lot of it in cooking.

The Winnie the Pooh elements to all of this are so appropriate.

Brexit is the ultimate heffalump trap after all.

Sparkley apparently you can freeze cheese - it goes a bit crumbly but fine for cooking. I've got 2 large slabs in our freezer. Unfortunately Grandpa is down and has eaten a lot of the part baked rolls I had stashed (how can you get through 16 in 4 days?!). Am also going to buy some tomato and potato plants to grow this week. Dd would live on cheesy pasta given half the chance!

LonelyandTiredandLow yes you can. Grate it first apparently. I bought a big block the other day for grating and freezing. I'm going to freeze it in the right amount for macaroni cheese or pasta bake dishes. I've got butter in the freezer too.

rosa I just read your link about British military în the Troubles trying to persuade the UVF to murder Catholic children & teachers

I knew of allegations that they colluded in the murders of civil rights activists, e.g. the lawyer Pat Finucane, of bombings in Dublin and even trying to murder the then Taoiseach
but premeditated murder of innocent children is a disgusting new low.

High time these allegations were brought to court - several could count as war crimes, so the ICC might take an interest if the UK cba
The number of them also indicates a deliberate policy at a high level, not just individual criminals

As with deValera, I suspect the effect of economic pressure on Ireland will be a renewed fondness for the idea of a 32 county republic in the 26 county republic.

I also suspect this sadly predictable tactic by the UK government has been anticipated by the Irish government and beef industry:
www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/agri-food/more-irish-beef-plants-gain-access-to-chinese-market-36905038.html
More Irish beef plants gain access to Chinese market

On the first day of the Trade Mission to China beef Market access was confirmed for a number of additional Irish beef plants.

The Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Michael Creed met with his counterpart, the Minister for Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Minister Han Changfu, and also the Minister for a newly established Chinese Agency, the State Market Regulatory Administration, Minister Zhang Mao.

Speaking from Beijing Minister Creed said these were incredibly productive meetings with excellent results.

"A number of additional Irish beef plants and one additional pork plant have now met the required approval standards to export to China.

"This brings to six the number of Irish beef plants that will initially be able to export beef. It is intended to complete the final administrative details to register these plants shortly.

"We also held preliminary discussions around the issues of approval for additional plants as well as the prospect of sheep meat access”

The trade mission comes after the announcement in April of the Chinese market opening for Irish beef.

Despite increases in domestic beef production in China, consumer demand for premium imported beef is forecast to rise significantly, driven by increasing urbanisation, higher disposable incomes and health awareness. Ireland has had pig-meat access to China for over 10 years and China has now become the second largest export market. Pig-meat exports were over €100 million in 2017.

The Minister also noted that another pig-meat plant has also met the approval standards for China. This means that all our major pig-meat export plants will be eligible for export.

China is the world’s largest pig-meat consumer and pork remains the main form of meat consumed here in China.

This trade mission provides the Minister and the Irish industry with a vital opportunity to further develop contacts with Chinese Ministers, Government officials, importers and retailers, and also to promote quality Irish food.

The Minister said: “The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other agencies are undergoing major structural changes here at present. It has been very useful to get a first hand overview of how these structures will operate as this will enhance our relations and market access work in future.

"Both Ministers agreed on the establishment of an official agriculture working group as part of an agreed comprehensive partnership between Ireland and China which will exchange information in the areas of food safety, sustainability, livestock production and rural development.”

The Minister also had a number of agri-tech meetings organised in conjunction with Enterprise Ireland including with Bimeda, Alltech and Dairymaster.

Day one concluded with a trade reception the at Embassy of Ireland, hosted by Ambassador Eoin O’Leary and Bord Bia, attended by trade mission delegates, Irish and Chinese media and local business leaders.

Speaking at this business networking reception in the Irish Embassy Minister Creed said it is a very exciting time for Chinese-Irish relations.

"I am delighted that we are serving Irish beef here today. We are extremely proud of the quality of our beef, and I am very pleased that it will be available here in the near future.”

This particular minister has logged an impressive number of air miles in the service of Irish agricultural exports since the Brexit referendum. I hope he enjoyed his dinner.

Beef production in Ireland is experiencing a lot of market pressure all the same.

However, at a time when food supply might be precarious, it is probably not in the interests of the UK to slap tariffs on beef imports. Imposing tariffs might also fall foul of WTO rules, and conducting international relations by means of a take-no-hostages approach involving the slapping on of tariffs may serve to create leeriness toward the UK in countries with which the UK hopes to strike trade agreements, including agreements that would feature agri-trade.

Maybe this is another example of a heffalump trap. It's certainly an example of a game of chicken.

Sparkly oh well, i've not grated it, so that will be interesting . I've got about 6 pats of butter too. Even have powdered eggs and water cleansing tablets. It's horrifying to me that every week we see even less detail on how we are going to prepare nationally for this issue. The fact it is being buried in the press should be classified as a Public Health scandal.

Marking my place, I always read although I hardly ever post.

Gove spoke of plans to impose tariffs generally on farm produce, to protect UK farmers.
Legally, that would have to include tariffs against Irish goods too, unless the UK can obtain a temporary WTO exemption re the NI border.

Fitch may cut UK's 'AA' rating on Brexit uncertainty

That's the debt rating and also the BoE rating

https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/21/fitch-may-cut-uks-aa-rating-on-brexit-uncertainty

Fitch said it currently assumes a "no-deal" Brexit will be avoided

Aviva, NatWest to join 'Brexodus' of business to EU

Aviva is the UK's #2 insurer

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1Q81YW?fbclid=IwAR0DP57mDRezCqwAgyb5olsbVVzv6ZXzoZIkAAki3X_qKbUjoERa6j

Roland Smith @rolandmcs
^Perhaps we're seeing the Independent Group through the wrong prism - the prism of party politics.
Perhaps it really is a unique experiment to introduce true independent MPs, as an antidote to the Westminster party cartel.^

Heidi Allen got closest to saying this. /1

In other words, it's not "the Independent Party" but a loose group of Independents - deliberately loose to avoid becoming "just another party". This explains their chosen name and why they haven't joined the Libdems. /2

And this is the perfect time to try such an experiment. The two main parties are in a shocking state with appalling leaders. Libdems are bombed out.

Brexit has also helpfully revealed the true state of Westminster party politics. /3

This may be a genuine attempt to "break the mould of British politics" in a way the SDP didn't.

Essentially smashing the cartel. /4

The downsides of this initiative are:

1. Are these the Right people to do it (with the right motivations)? Wollaston & Allen, yes. But the others?

2. There needs to be much wider change to Britain's politics. This initiative alone will sink without that change. /5

But if I've got this right, it feels like an initiative worth supporting. Breaking party politics and calling a halt to the idiots and "manifesto automatons" that infest the airwaves seems well worth a try. /ends

Replies are interesting and are both supportive and dismissive.