Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

Pesty The idea of a time-limited backstop is regarded as ridiculous in Germany
and in all statements I've read from Brussels

A time-limited backstop is not a backstop

It only keeps being raised as possible by UK sources

At some point people need to take a stand and change things rather than just complain.

You mean like go on marches even though every time you do you get grief and each time your slightly more afraid that someone will get violent with you?
Or emailing those in power and letting them know what it is you want and making sure that they are aware of where public opinion really lies - and that we won't forget if they destroy our rights and prosperity - either because it what they want or through cowardice and inertia.
Or encouraging other people to do the same so that mps actually feel the weight of public opinion.
Or signing petitions.
Or helping to crowdfund the various legal challenges that are standing up to what is going on.

Thanks - but - I do all that. Plenty of people are fighting and not just complaining. But we are powerless fighting against those with power and on a very strict and unforgiving timetable. The reason the govt and ERG are getting away with this is because they are the ones that hold all the power to decide what happens. And they have a lot more money.
But that doesn't mean that people aren't fighting - that they won't continue to fight and it doesn't even mean that they won't eventually win - even if terrible things are inflicted on them in the meantime.

They'll never win if they give up and email their support to the W.A though.

That "average" MP is so ignorant and so lacking in knowledge of what the EU thinks
but it's no surprise
It's why the chance of No Deal is so high

Anyone writing to their MP, but can't bear to ask them to vote for the WA:
at least demand they stop No Deal by any means possible

It's amazing that UK expats are being treated so well in all 27 countries

It's not.

You are beneficiaries of people like us who have stood up for your human rights.

So.

Children are being arrested in Westminster today.

This man in Westminster wasn't arrested yesterday.

This is the political environment in England now.

Brexit.

My only real plan to avoid No Deal is to campaign as hard as possible for the WA
Shortages of meds & food are just not an acceptable risk

The WA means belt-tightening, but a slow decline is manageable

Actually, ERG is in the Brexit Abbreviation thread . I'm sorry - I can't link as I'm on the app on my phone at the moment.

Why British expoats are not suffering:

The UK has suffered 30 years of constant hate speech against the EU, by both the media and many politicians

This is not normal

There has not been any hate from the E27 media or politicians directed against Britain
Even now, there is exasperation against British politicians, but none against Britain

So there has never been any need to stand up for British expats
If Germany had 30 years of hate speech, I'm sure I'd be fleeing now

btw, when it come to Muslim migrants & refugees, rightwing parties in the EU are as bad, probably worse than the Tory party.
It's just they regard Brits as fellow Europeans

The British regard anyone outside the Anglosphere as furrin
That's a big difference

Marina Hyde's latest column:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/15/rees-mogg-robot-sidekick-steve-baker-brexit

Russia and the far right - directed from the USA - keep whipping up anti-Muslim hysteria, in the UK and across Europe

but noone is whipping up anti-British feeling

ERM! Germany has only very narrowly avoided being in a recession. Not so great then. And I suppose they are not an inchy winchy tiny bit worried about having to find extra money if we leave with no deal?

I'm feeling quite traumatised tonight. I have a friend who works in pharma here in the EU27. Today they've all been briefed on the no deal situation for their company and their customers. He says that the worst case scenario being touted by hard line remainers is nothing compared to the reality of how bad it's going to be.

{ERM! Germany has only very narrowly avoided being in a recession. Not so great then. And I suppose they are not an inchy winchy tiny bit worried about having to find extra money if we leave with no deal?}

Your point being?
A 'recession' is an arbitrary figure put on a predicted growth rate. The figures are never particularly accurate.

Ah well. I've thought of all worst scenarios so no point worrying anymore. What will be, will be and I will hang on for grim life. I don't die easily.

Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourkee@kevinhorourke*

Does @BBCkatyaadlerr^ have any evidence that the EU is willing to ditch the backstop, or agree to a time limit, ^ or allow the UK to exit it unilaterally?^

Listening to her reports you might be forgiven for thinking that this is in fact the case @BBCNews

I look around the world which is changing rapidly, both politically and economically. It is ripe for world wide recession. Where there is rapid growth a recession follows. Trade wars all over the place old alliances and treaties breaking up. Yes, a very volatile world and Europe is also volatile and changing. In 30 years time things can be very different for all in the world. Oh, and figures are figures, stats are stats and like reading a book can be interpreted in many ways. Whose to say which way is right though!

I think a quick pass around of a bottle of might be appreciated.

Followed by a reminder that we all need to take part in some of that awfully phrased 'self care'. Seriously. Make sure everyone takes a bit of time out this weekend to step away from the news, do something that you enjoy. Get a bit of fresh air, find something amusing to watch, whatever it takes. Lots of people here are struggling with sleep and anxiety. That's understandable, but we need to develop a pool of resilience also.

It may well be tough coming up, but we will get through things better if we have taken care of ourselves.

sos Germany says No Deal could be as bad for the most affected 5-6 EU countries as the financial crisis
(btw, they say the damage to the UK would be an order of magnitude worse)

BUT
The concessions the UK demand, especially on the backstop would be MUCH worse:

either
political disaster: the EU force Ireland to choose between a goods border or Irexit

or
economic disaster: the EU let its Single market be damaged

The fundamental mistake people in the UK keep making is not realising that Germany - and the rest of the EU -
would suffer MORE from making the concessions than from No Deal^

0% growth means 0% growth. 00.3% is neither here or there really. That tiny increase can be wiped right out just like that. But I don't really care.

Bollox I've been thinking about all of the animal carcasses/waste/lack of meds and potential traffic issues for ambulances ... thinking how all can contribute to some serious public health concerns. I don't want to get too paranoid but I was saying to a close friend today that I'd not be surprised if we had an epidemic. Part of me wanting to be at home is that I want to ensure we are out of that contact zone. Yes, I sounds pretty paranoid, but these things can happen, esp I imagine in a country that hasn't had to deal with raw waste hands-on for decades.

I was working in Germany in the Naughties when it was officially deep in recession,
belt-tightening and wage freezes everywhere,
not skirting the edge of recession like now - it still feels booming, btw

I was there because ... Germany in a recession was still a lot richer than the UK not yet in one

The thing is bigchoc you may be right but it is true that the EUs growth is slowing. Italy and Greece are already suffering. Spain's not that rosy, France has problems too. It is a sure sign of a recession coming.
It would be a real turn up for the books if we don't suffer as much as the EU says/wants us to with no deal. I'm never, ever complacent and I think the EU should not be either ( nor the UK) the unexpected can happen at anytime.

Toddling off now nite nite to all!

Some businesses here have warned that profits would fall in the event of No Deal

However, all prepping is business and government only.
Noone is worried about food or medicines, planes or ships

It's the difference between an economic downturn and falling off a cliff

I know Brexiters keep hunting for any bad news happening in the EU
However, that's all distraction from what would happen to the UK in the event of No Deal

True badkitten but there are far more serious things to worry about than brexit in my life I'm afraid. I don't allow anything to get me down because you can't cope/deal with it if you allow it to do so. So stiff upper lip is called for sometimes, head down, shoulders into the wind and all will be well!

P.s I'm not a brexiteer( sigh)