Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/02/2019 15:14

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
lonelyplanetmum · 06/02/2019 20:47

There are plenty of leavers who think the loss of manufacturing and retail jobs over the past 2 years is normal and nothing to do with Brexit.

That's the problem things happen incrementally :

Fall in the pound?
( Leave response- oh it would have fallen anyway. TM actually said this in one speech.)

Businesses leaving?
( Leave response- oh they would have left anyway.)

Manufacturing decline? ( Leave response- oh that would have happened anyway.)

Privatisation of the NHS ? ( Leave response- oh that would have happened anyway.)

Insufficient nurses and carers ? ( Leave response- that would have happened anyway.)

Inflation? ? ( Leave response- oh that would have happened anyway.)

Investor decline ? ( Leave response- oh that would have happened anyway.)

Recession/ depression ? ( Leave response- oh that would have happened anyway.)

Loss of our fifth strongest economy place ? ( Leave response- oh that would have happened anyway.)

The reality is we are already lagging far behind the synthetic trajectories that all economists predict we would have followed -but again its pah what do experts know. All the signs of the damage are there- but how can you convince the devotees?

BigChocFrenzy · 06/02/2019 20:49

TiP I wouldn't be so sure we'd lose the optouts
Especially if we decide to Rejoin during an extended transition

The EU would love us back - if most of the public genuinely want that later
We used to be regarded as reliable wrt fighting off populism and Putin
Our adult mode is sorely missed by the other adults.

Unlike the Brexiter cake demands, letting us keep optouts doesn't wreck the SM or otherwise harm the EU
and this is when the UK's clout and the justification that an ex-member is a special case really can be used.

If we have sensible politicians who use our civil service and F.O. experience wisely, I expect we could get pretty much the same terms,
particularly if we agree to move into the proposed outer ring, which is outside the Eurozone.

SwedishEdith · 06/02/2019 20:49

Jon Stone
@joncstone
Retweeted Paul Waugh

I think this is plausible: as @adamfleming tweeted earlier, Juncker explicitly ruled out a unilateral exit mechanism when asked today… but not a time limit. Could just be a coincidence, but worth keeping an eye on.

Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh

Just a thought: Tusk 'hell' remarks today felt like a deliberate smokescreen for concessions worked on w/ UK on legally binding words re bstop.
Add Varadkar vague line that EU will 'do right by Ireland' and seems all sides being lined up to claim victory. Ie how deals are done.

lonelyplanetmum · 06/02/2019 20:49

Not sure if this has been posted?

smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

TalkinPeece · 06/02/2019 20:53

Bigchoc
Staying outside Schengen - no hassle for the EU so will be re allowed
Staying outside the Euro - no hassle for the EU (quite useful in fact) so will be allowed
Optouts of directives - each one will need to be haggled
The rebate - THAT is where the UK will pay for the costs it has made the EU incur over the last three years Grin

LittleSpace · 06/02/2019 20:56

We wouldn't deserve to get the rebate back.

DGRossetti · 06/02/2019 21:00

Meanwhile, on AIBU

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3501203-To-agree-with-Donald-tusk-there-is-a-place-in-hell-for-brexiters

Oh dear, where's Team Brexit ?

BigChocFrenzy · 06/02/2019 21:00

Some of those post-ref changes would indeed have happened in time, but that is exactly the problem:

the changes were too sudden and too large, instead of happening over decades
So some businesses couldn't cope, prices went up, debt went up etc

  • The pound has been falling relative to other major currencies since we left the Gold Standard in the 1930s
This is because of structural problems in the UK economy which have never been properly addressed.

However, the sudden fall of about 15% was damaging because it would normally have happened over say 10, 20, 30 years

Another sudden 25% with No Deal, as Carney fears, would multiply the adverse effects
and be too sudden for most exporters to take advantage even if they don't have much imported content.

  • Polish workers would have returned home gradually because the Polish economy - with the EU regional funding - has been expanding rapidly since it joined the EU

The problem is the sudden drop, both beacsue Sterling is worth 15% less to them and because of the spike in racism towards them

Lucygoeswalkies · 06/02/2019 21:02

Good for Tusk. I’m already tired of the snowflake brexiteer MPs whining for an apology. In fact I’ve emailed the general secretariat of the European Council to express my support for the stance he’s taken. I just hope he sees it along with any other messages of support.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/02/2019 21:04

I'd stand up for our rebate, particularly as we'd be poorer

iirc, the whole idea of regional development funds really took off when MrsT was demanding a rebate because the UK had one of the lower GDPs per head but was paying high contributions because of special UK trade patterns

The EU are generally adults and don't - contrary to paranoid belief in some Brexiter quarters - believe in punishment.
They'll drive a tough bargain though, because that's what a powerful trade bloc does

PerverseConverse · 06/02/2019 21:07

@DGRossetti surfer is on there saying he's done wonders for the leave campaign 🙄

BigChocFrenzy · 06/02/2019 21:14

My main fury is at the Tories, because this whole clusterfuck came about because as iric one EU leader said before
"Brexit is a Tory catfight that got out of hand"

The ref resulted from a chain of errors by Cameron, but all involved risking serious harm to the country, just to rescue a divided Tory party
I would easily forgive mistakes that were responding to a genuine external crisis,+
but I find a Tory-created crisis unforgiveable

May's handling of the mess he left her with has similarly been driven by putting party before country

Labour have been a useless Opposition because of one person: Corbyn - again the Labour Party voters were deceived by an image.
With any other leader, they have a reasonable amount of talent that could have worked with Tory remainers - hardly any will work with Corbyn.

Replacing Corbyn by a normal Labour leader would enable the party to get back on track.
With the Tories, they'd need to replace the entire ERG, plus all those in govt who chose to pander to them - that adds up to removing at least 150 MPs, imo

Hence why I think Labour is rescuable, but the tory party needs to be replaced by a new right of centre party

ElenadeClermont · 06/02/2019 21:14

What campaign? I thought they won. Confused

PerverseConverse · 06/02/2019 21:19

I know Grin Leavers and logic are mutually exclusive I've found.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/02/2019 21:19

Don't forget this part of Tusk's message which was for Remain supporters

It is a reality check, telling us to stop trashing the WA, because at this stage it is the only realistic alternative to No Deal:

"I have always been with you, with all my heart Sad

The facts are unmistakable.
At the moment, the pro-Brexit stance of the UK prime minister, and the Leader of the Opposition, rules out this question.

"Today, there is no political force and no effective leadership for Remain.
I say this without satisfaction, but you can't argue with the facts."

yolofish · 06/02/2019 21:20

added my bit to that thread, FWIW (which is fuck all). I am so depressed by the whole bloody thing atm.

dontcallmelen · 06/02/2019 21:21

Big I totally agree & what I find even more indefensible is the tidies getting into bed with DUP, I just wish the Labour Party would sort themselves out & where the feck are the Libdems in all this.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/02/2019 21:21

They really would welcome us back in a few years, if we build up public support and politicians to stand up for Rejoin

Destiel · 06/02/2019 21:21

The real irony of brexit: no one will be satisfied.

And for what??

dontcallmelen · 06/02/2019 21:22

Tories autocorrect 😡

TalkinPeece · 06/02/2019 21:22

There are certain posters on those AIBU threads who have form for bragging about getting Brexit threads moved off the public boards
MNHQ need to be reminded not to do so at the moment
IYSWIM Grin

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/02/2019 21:23

My sympathy knows no beginning.

That made me snort with laughter Destiel

In other news - I've been feeling a bit left out recently, but my turn came at last: Tim Martin posted my copy of emergency brexit toilet paper wetherspoon's news through my door today.

There are not enough four letter words in the english language.

Destiel · 06/02/2019 21:24

I remember my mums laughter after TM got into bed with the Tories.

Hysterical laughter about sums it up.

Unionists are mad as a box of frogs. Easy to laugh at.

Ditto the ERG.

And yet our whole country and parliament are now in thrall to them.

Horrific.

BjorkShush · 06/02/2019 21:25

Tim Martin posted my copy of emergency brexit toilet paper wetherspoon's news through my door today.

Trolling through the letterbox.

Jericho1 · 06/02/2019 21:26

he's done wonders for the leave campaign
An industrial scale opaquely funded digital targeting campaign is in process right now to promote the crash out on SM particularly FB.

Final push while parliament has effectively been closed down.