Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Post The EU started serious No Deal prep in December and has been continually ramping up
Some countries are better prepared than others and several member countries will hardly be affected at all.

Moving on, has anyone seen any more reactions to Tusk’s comments today in other EU countries ? I’m guessing we’ll see No Deal preparations on steroids as rapidly running out of time.

Just a personal view, but I think the heavy liftings been done. The UKs bleating and navel-gazing have hidden a lot from view. I would find it inconceivable that an EU official of Tusks standing would dash off a stupid tweet without a lot of thought and consideration. To me that tweet is a signal that it's no-deal all the way, baby. Not by choice, but by cold logic. The UK has the WA. The UK knows what to do with the WA if it genuinely wishes to transition. It's all up to the UK now.

I'd be curious to know what boxes had to be ticked before a tweet like that could be considered. Somewhere a Rubicon has been crossed (apologies to Hesta54 for the Eurocentric imagery ) - a die has been cast (oops. sorry Hesta ! did it again). The bloody doors have been blown off ...

If anyone can fault my thinking - if not my prose - be curious to know where ....

No Deal is, frankly, terrifying.

And this government is in charge of planning for it.

I'm guessing no GCSEs for BabyCat this year. ☹️

Yes.

I think genuinely the best we can hope for is for WA to pass.

Still too much game-playing going on, though.

Time for mass emailing of MPs to urge them to vote for WA.

Much as it hurts.

hesta it is an odd confusion that leavers often make, the idea that remainers think that the EU is without fault.
I haven't met a remainer that usually doesn't have a long list of things that could be improved about the EU.
Us leaving the EU won't improve either our position or that of the EU though.

As much as the remainers worship at the EU church, it’s not as nice and fluffy as you think it is

Unless you can cite a specific quote on this board by a specific poster expressing those sentiments, why did you waste electricity posting ?

The one time I have any sympathy with Leavers who find their critical thinking impugned, is when the really moronic Brexiteers try imply that all Remainers considered the EU heaven on earth.

The reality is I haven't yet seen a single Remainer argue with the statement that the EU is not perfect and needs reform.

In other news, things which are not cats aren't always dogs.

#WeAreAllDonaldTusk

.

Cat Lisa Nandy www.techregister.co.uk/mps-must-compromise-on-a-brexit-deal-or-tear-the-country-apart
Sign the WA and use indicative votes to find out what MPs want. Plus ask unions, business and maybe a few people.

Good idea, a couple of years late. Unfortunately not very inline with how our Government currently works.

UK Brexit secretary met with ex-ambassador Rogers

Getting desperate and finally asking the expert what to do ?
First sensible action by a Brexit secretary

Hopefully Rogers didn't just declare: "I wouldn't start from here"

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-brexit-secretary-met-with-ex-ambassador-rogers/

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay held a meeting with the U.K.'s former ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers, a prominent critic of the government's handling of the Brexit process.

I fired off email to my ERG member of an MP last week urging him to vote for WA, he’s taken to ignoring my emails. Will ask DH to email again. It was reading the EU’s no deal preparations that has made my Dad finally realise they are actually serious about it and not bluffing, hopefully seeing more might focus his mind further.

Really I think we should all be out in the streets over this. Not a mass descent on Westminster but a coordinated time across the whole country to get maximum people out without geographical restraints and put pressure on local MP’s. It’s crunch time.

Hesta most of us are very realistic about the EU , don’t think it’s nice and fluffy and acknowledge it has its shortcomings FWIW.

Hesta

Love.

Stop with the Brexit sound bites.

It's over.

You won.

We're leaving.

No-one cares.

You're shouting at an empty wall.

You need to start thinking about what you say - to real live people - about why you voted No Deal on them.

Because they will ask.

And 'Blah, whirr, squeak, EU sovereignty...' ain't going to be worth a hill of beans when people are hungry, hungry, hungry and come knocking on your door, asking if you have anything spare.

mother The way the backstop works is in the legal text.

The only alternative, after transition, is that the UK breaks this international treaty - the WA - and becomes an international pariah like N Korea.

That is always possible, but very unlikely
It's likely even the US would refuse a trade deal in those cirumstances.

Yes, I'm sure there will be problems we haven't thought of
and yes it is nowhere near as good as Remain

However, it would still be a far better situation to a No Deal Brexit

Seriously. Stop being so daft, Hesta, grow up, and email your MP to vote for the WA.

(If you don't know who your MP is, you can google it.)

thecatfromjapan He’s a strict party man, only does what TM tells him, just starting in his political career

I have one of those Hesta.

and there is the hope of an extended transition and a trade deal that is much better than the backstop.

Tusk has finally said it
but most of us realised it quite a while ago:
there is almost NO chance of Remain

So we have to look at the only options actually on the table:

It's WA or No Deal

and no amount of railing at May or the ERG will produce anything else at this stage

Agree.
Start getting your excuses ready hesta
Coz hungry folk will want answers from those who voted for this clusterfuck.
ERG and Farage have a lot to answer for letting the far right out of their box.
They don't play nice.

If we are currently hurtling towards no deal anyway then what is there to stop us reneging on it anyway once we are 250 months into trying really hard to get a conclusion but not managing it?

until the issue of the NI border - which is a microcosm of the UK/EUs relationship - is sorted, no trade deals for the UK from anywhere. At all.

That would be the best case scenario.

Worst case would be UN measures against the UK for reneging on the GFA. So not only no deal and no deals, but sanctions too. Sanctions you can bet your ass the US and EU would uphold. Not all countries are quite as flexible about sanctions as the UK can be.

But what do I know. I've just jumped from "working for the EU" to "working for the UN". Maybe, just maybe since I'm also in IT, I can somehow get to work for UNIT and meet Dr. Who.

Completely derailing the thread, but what a shame Whoopi Goldberg didn't get to be Dr. Who - I think she'd have been ace.

thecatfromjapan I’m not hoping to change your views, just trying to add different opinions in your echo chamber, I can’t understand how you all know the EU has massive faults but don’t want to leave or campaign to alter it,
It’s just a shame that our parliament over a few decades have allowed us to be in this position where we are like a junkie and the EU is are dealer and we can’t break away without the pain of detoxing

It was reading the EU’s no deal preparations that has made my Dad finally realise they are actually serious about it and not bluffing, hopefully seeing more might focus his mind further.

the problem is that should have happened back in July last year, when the Chequers debacle was going on. With less than 60 days to go, it's too late.

Kent's planning for No Deal expects most/all state schools to be closed by week 3.

Actual planning.

Not a game.

That's just one, small, detail. But think about what it implies, and the knock-on effects.

Hesta you're lucky, then. He'll vote for the WA.

My MP is a Remainer. She's going to be more tricky.

Those with an odd - probably not-quite-fitting-in-at-work - sense of humour might appreciate the terrible dilemma facing the ERG and headbanger Brexiteers right now.

If they end up voting for the WA, it will be taken as a clear sign of supporting Theresa May, and that her way is the way. Even if it isn't.

A large proportion of 80% of the voters would understand the unfairness of it all.

Hesta, you’re not going to understand many of our mindsets as many of us don’t get yours. But regardless of what we believe we can all do our bit now at this moment in time. Even if our MPs don’t listen, they do need to know that some of us recognise that from where we are at this precise moment of time (regardless of the events that led up to it), that the WA is the pragmatic solution forward from where we are currently at.

Remember the Health Secretary has said he can not guarantee lives will not be lost.