Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

'Special Place in Hell'

Good for Tusk. Right on the money.

Those who sold this so called brexit lie are damned for eternity.

And those who continue to sell it are too.

But so are we. Crash out is going to kill thousands of us.

Tusk knows that.

The backstop would also retain nearly - not completely - frictionless trade with the EU

whereas with a No Deal Brexit, we would be a 3rd country that must be treated like any other under WTO rules.

There are even possible workarounds in the WA to keep the non-EU trade deals too, such as the FTAs.

@Hesta54 - easy mistake - as lots of English people seem to believe they are the center of the universe......

mrslaughan I wouldn’t say that, nothing wrong with having pride in your country, it seems to be a thing lots of countries have but is sadly lacking here as it seems to be a dirty word

The original NI-only backstop would only have protected NI in the event of No Deal.
The all-UK backstop gives considerable protection to the rest of the UK too

Nowhere near as good as being in the EU, but miles better than No Deal

That is the worst case and it is why the WA is so much better than No Deal
The best case gives us a much closer relationship with the EU, if the political will is there

No Deal Brexit gives us nothing

prettybird

As it happens, No Deal/Brexit will help to achieve one of my personal objectives more quickly - that of Scottish Independence

I've met a lot of ex-Unionists recently including several members of the local Conservative & Unionist party. It's "interesting" times indeed when you meet ladies in their 70s and 80s getting ready for a spot of rioting.

I voted no because I read the white paper and didn't think it made a convincing enough case but at least the SNP bothered to write the damn thing before they held a referendum. Now this mess coupled with the comments my dh (Scottish/Irish mix) faced last time we were in England has me thinking enough is enough.

So, to start a conversation in a different area:

What do you all make of Lisa Nandy?

How much hope has she of being listened to?

Will she be hung out to dry for her compromise position?

(I feel she is acting, to an extent, with 'plausible deniability' of Labour leadership.)

(And you do make me laugh, DGR. I think you might be onto something with the burning-to-save-souls thing.)

Jericho1 How is saying things like that helpful, I just think Tusk and the EU are showing their true colours, acting like spoiled kids when other people don’t agree with them and their wrong ideas

Bit early for half term, isn't it ?

I just think Tusk and the EU are showing their true colours, acting like spoiled kids when other people don’t agree with them and their wrong ideas
The EU has been utterly consistent since day 1
it has to obey its rules
it has to protect its member - Ireland

how is that being like a spoiled kid?
And which of their ideas are wrong?

DGRossetti I don’t know, is it ? Oh sorry your implying that I’m childish, do you work for the EU, sounds like a thing they would say

mother You don't seem to understand what the backstop is:
It is the insurance policy in case there is no deal after transition

It makes sure that we do NOT revert to the same situation as would happen with No Deal Brexit

If the backstop is invoked, then NI is fully protected - they basically continue almost as if they still were in the EU

The rest of the UK isn't that good, but we still retain many of the trade benefits with the EU - and possibly other countries -
and the govt can't reduce workers rights, environmental law etc below the EU regulatory minimum.
We do lose FOM though.

Read the EU summary of how the backstop would work

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseMEMO-18-64233_en.htm

If an agreement on the future EU-UK relationship is not applicable by 31 December 2020,
the EU and the UK have agreed that a backstop solution will apply until such a time as a subsequent agreement is in place.

Alternatively, the UK may, before 1 July 2020, request an extension of the transition period.
Such a request would be dealt with under article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement and must therefore be agreed by the Joint Committee.

In the scenario where the "backstop solution" would apply, this would mean the following in practice:

•	There will be a <strong>single EU-UK customs territory</strong>. This will avoid the need for tariffs, quotas or checks on rules of origin between the EU and the UK.

•	The EU and the UK have agreed on a set of measures to ensure that there is a level playing field between the EU and the UK.

•	The Union's <strong>Customs Code</strong> (UCC), which sets out, inter alia, the provisions for releasing products into free circulation within the EU, will continue to apply to Northern Ireland. This will ensure that Northern Irish businesses will not face restrictions when placing products on the EU's Single Market.

•	The UK in respect of Northern Ireland will <strong>remain aligned</strong> to a limited set of rules that are related to the EU's Single Market and indispensable for avoiding a hard border: legislation on goods, sanitary rules for veterinary controls (“SPS rules”), rules on agricultural production/marketing, VAT and excise in respect of goods, and state aid rules.

The other thing I dislike about whingeing Leavers - and this is a general point - is that they try and bludgeon people into submission through a boring repetition of homilies and platitudes.

It's a thing.

They never get to grips with anything. Or do anything.

But always with the reduction of complexity to quotidian homily.

Peter Bone's at it in the HoC.

I'm tired of it.

They own this. They need to stop farting around.

Remainers have run round in circles, analysing stuff, being called elitist fifth columnists, working their arsed off ...

It's time we sat back and did a bit more of the:

'Your show now. What have you got planned for this pig of yours, then?'

About the Southampton thing: The EU loan was to reduce CO2 emissions, not for transitioning from Southampton.

The relocation was a restructuring by Ford.

twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/895966891684048897

The scam of holding an advisory referendum and then changing it to a ' ta da, we're regarding it as in essence binding, now' was the trojan horse. If it was put forth as binding, then there would have been more safeguards. And this mess of dodgy goings on would have to be addressed. But no. Worst of all worlds. Run without any honour, yet an insistence it has to be honoured.

Lisa Nandy.

Lisa Nandy.

Any opinions on Lisa Nandy?

The other thing I dislike about whingeing Leavers - and this is a general point - is that they try and bludgeon people into submission through a boring repetition of homilies and platitudes.

When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

s/hammer/low intelligence/

How is saying things like that helpful, I just think Tusk and the EU are showing their true colours, acting like spoiled kids when other people don’t agree with them and their wrong ideas

Personally I think his comment was pretty apt. I don't believe in Hell but those politicians responsible for this well, I think Kipling had it nailed.

I could not dig: I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?

As I Have said before under previous names I am giving up on the Union, despite having and English DH and house. Brexit has no interest in the UK only England.
DH was talking to a good friend, who is a kind and decent person about Brexit and explaining how concerned I was getting about the English nationalism we were seeing and his instinctive response was if Scots as a nation didn't like it they knew where the door was. If this is the response of someone I know is basically decent it makes me wonder about the long term future of the U.K.
You cannot stoke the fires of nationalism without consequence.

Any opinions on Lisa Nandy?

Not really - the TL;DR bit which caught my eye involved the words "if" "could", "prepared", and "red lines". Almost a paradigm for filtering out chaff from news.

Need a bit more substance to invest anymore time on it, I'm afraid.

Brexit has no interest in the UK only England.

And even then, as some English Brexiteers will find out, only certain parts of England anyway.

We are in what has been described by some as the biggest peacetime crisis since the war. So many people’s lives are on hold until they know what will happen, people are worried about being able to stay with their families, worried about having insulin to keep them alive, jobs have gone, many more will go. This is having a huge effect on people’s mental and physical health.

Tusk has said what a lot of us are thinking but don’t say in public as it’s not the British way. The situation we are now all in is ridiculous, needn’t have happened and there will be (fruitless) enquiries over this in the future and yet you say Hesta about the EU’s true colours and being spoiled. ? It is beyond belief that you are trying to blame the EU for this, it really is, though clearly you will never see this as you appear to be worshipping at the altar of the sacred church of Leave.

Moving on, has anyone seen any more reactions to Tusk’s comments today in other EU countries ? I’m guessing we’ll see No Deal preparations on steroids as rapidly running out of time.

Breaking News

EU says No.

DGRossetti I don’t know, is it ? Oh sorry your implying that I’m childish, do you work for the EU, sounds like a thing they would say

Oh the irony

PostNotInHaste As much as the remainers worship at the EU church, it’s not as nice and fluffy as you think it is