Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Hesta
AS you agree it was an utterly flawed referendum
and you've said you'd have been chilled if remain had won.
Would you be happy for TM to revoke A50 next week?
As you've said that the MPs are in the driving seat now.

So if it’s not right for the country, why are they carrying on with it ?

Welcome to 2019.

Hear, hear, thecatfromjapan

bellinisurge So why aren’t more people campaigning for a GE for a new government ( Lib Dem? )

{1tisILeClerc
Fail to prepare, prepare to fail as I said before it’s Parliament that is letting the country down}
So, in your analysis of the crap that was spouted by the leave and remain parties, you looked at what leave said and thought, Hmmm, that looks like a brilliant plan, I will vote for that, rather than questioning why the government couldn't spend £350 Million a week on the NHS already, and wonder if the problem is actually down to immigrants or whether it isn't the UK government responsibility to make the sovereign UK run properly. NOW you was your hands of your responsibility and want the government to sort you out.
Being allowed to vote places responsibility in YOUR hands.

Hazard The only way the WA ends in No Deal is if the UK reneges on the backstop and breaks the WA treaty
The UK would become an international pariah, shunned by even the US and our usual friends

It is always possible that the Tory party chose to emulate the isolation of N Korea, but it is very unlikely
Hence why the ERG and DUP are so furiously opposing the WA

Far more likely at the end of transition is:
either

• no trade deal is reached, in which case the backstop is invoked - all the UK in a CU with all the trade rules vopied from the SM

or

• we move towards SM+CU in a 3rd EEA pillar, especially if Labour is elected during transition

Both options probably mean an extension of transition, because 2 years is not enough time to negotiate a trade deal.

If UK public opinion is narrowly Remain atm, the extra years could firm up the will to Rejoin.
I know Ultras from both Remain & Leave claim we'd lose all our optouts, but the EU might choose to leave them in, if they think our membership would benefit them.
Unlike a cake WA deal, this would not have to damage their SM or the GFA; so, the UK does have sufficient clout to get special treatment in that case.

Hesta54 your "helpful " suggestion on another thread has been to take over another sovereign nation. Your critical thinking is very poor.

Why aren't you, Hesta?

This is yours, now.

All of it.

Own it.

Don't be so bloody lazy. You're an adult. Not a child.

Own it.

Stop sitting around, whinging that no-one else is helping you tie your shoe-laces.

TalkinPeece Yes, if she believes that is, at this time the best for this country, she should revoke A50 and stand down, it will not put an end to the EU split, it will just carry on festering, unless they can reform themselves, which they so no sign of doing, if anything getting more power hungry, it’s an old saying in business if you stand still you die, you have to keep growing

Hesta54 Fail to prepare, prepare to fail as I said before it’s Parliament that is letting the country down

Completely agree! and as we now are all singing from the same hymn sheet, we need to postpone A50, as there is clearly no plan or the means to construct one in time.

A failure to do so, wont just mean jobs lost in Southampton but whole industries going... needlessly.

Whingeing Leavers.

I'm bored to all hell of them.

I would be the first to say I did not know either at the time of the ref.

I did. Because I’m a proper honest to god real life lawyer who spends all day trying to sort out implementing half baked ideas. And i tried to tell people. But I’m apparently “project fear” and “a traitor” who was “talking the country down”.

Reality is scary. I sometimes wish I didn’t actually realise that though. I’d have a more relaxed life.

thecatfromjapan What are you on about ? Who’s whinging? How possibly can it be mine now , am I in Parliament voting on the way forward, like you it’s out of our hands at this moment

Whingeing Leavers. I'm bored to all hell of them.

'Hesta54 your "helpful " suggestion on another thread has been to take over another sovereign nation. Your critical thinking is very poor.'

Which lucky nation was this? The UK's closest neighbour perhaps?

Hesta Governments often can't carry out what is in their manifesto:

either circumstances change,
or when they ask the civil service to draw up concrete plans, they realise it would be too costly or damaging to the country.

Occasionally - as with Leave - they were totally irresponsible and just posing, but never expected to win
Hence they have no plan, because they made conflicting promises to different groups, just to win the vote
and no plan could fulfill anything like what they promised.

If some foolish young men showing off dare each other into jumping off a cliff,
it would be wicked to goad them into keeping that promise.
Even worse, if they promised to drag innocent bystanders over with them.

Bubastez 'Which lucky nation was this? The UK's closest neighbour perhaps?'

😂😂😂

I’m starting to think that if we’re going to end up with no deal they should just get on with telling us so we can all stockpile/escape/take up day drinking.

I veer between reassuring myself it’ll all be fine and looking at jobs and flats near Milan these days!

Bubastes No not France

Nice try. But I think you'll find there's only a footstep's distance between NI and Ireland. And as far as I'm aware.........NI is still part of the UK. For now.

N'mind though. It's very 'on brand' for Leavers to forget about Northern Ireland.

mother You may have misunderstood the backstop:
it is an insurance policy in case no deal can be reached

No Deal after transition ends is NOT the same as a No Deal Brexit

The whole purpose of the backstop is that if no deal can be reached during transition, then we do NOT end up with the No Deal we currently face

Instead, the backstop is invoked, which is all the UK in a permanent CU - until something better is found - with trade rules copied from the SM.

This is why the ERG - and Trump - say the WA prevents the removal of a US trade deal,
because it retains UK workers rights, environmental rules etc
It preserves some of what we have now.

Since fuck is actually happening, it's interesting to delve into the psychology going on here ....

I wonder how much of the Leaver mindset is affected by some expectation; conscious or otherwise; that as a result of their great insights into the Ways of the World, there should have come - or there will come - a time when the Remainers suddenly "get it" and throw themselves prostrate before the all-Knowing-Leavers who would then gently forgive them for the error of their ways ?

We need to bear in mind most of us have emerged from a society where burning someone alive was viewed as doing them a favour by saving their soul. So it's not too much of a stretch to realise that some Leavers are effectively doing that by proxy. They are burning the UK alive in order to save it's sovereign soul from the devil EU.

Be curious to hear from professionals tasked with de-radicalising Islamist nutjobs as to what points of similarity, if any, exist with the more swivelly-eyed Brexiteers.

DW and I are still really annoyed that there's no immediate plans for a one-way trip to Mars, because we're still game - can't be any worse than another 20 years of this shit.

Bubastes Sorry I thought you said England’s