Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

pesty That's why I posted
"the DUP objections may be only to the backstop"

they are the eternal Party of NO ! 😂
Who could forget Ian Paisley Snr saying NO to every concesion - but th GFA still going ahead regardless

I suspect they hoped to roll back the GFA which they always hated, but now they realise they have actually brought forward the likely date of a reunification vote
and they've pissed off a lot of Unionist voters who would profit from the WA, but lose income after No Deal

Hence I suspect they would dearly love to row back, if they could do so without losing face

So they might dump the ERG if the backstop went

• neither the DUP or the ERG have genuine loyalties to anyone else

Anyone else notice a lot of names returning from the past?

I definitely have. Familiar names working hard and posting prolifically after a 2-year absence. Plus also new pigeons.

Warning, the following includes a long rant from my leaver friend after this morning's telephone update
Just wondering, how likely are we (in UK) to have a recession in the event of a No Deal? Leaver suggests all EU countries will but not us if we break away just in time . She says remainers aren't thinking long term enough - a little bit of hardship now means the future for our kids will be better in the long run.

elements You're right
Let's remind ourselves why we shouldn't get distracted by pigeons ...

"Playing chess with a pigeon:"

it knocks the pieces over, craps on the board, and flies back to its flock to claim victory

I know a lot of you are writing diaries. I was thinking last night how all of these threads will be fascinating for Historians one day, when they try to figure out the psychological mindset that drove us to leave the most successful trading bloc in history. .

Lonely How is she still a friend? I have to put up with less incoherent stuff from my FiL, but that’s because short of divorcing DH we’re stuck with him (keeping visits to a minimum though).

Dont wrestle with pigs, people.
The pigs like it and you get dirty..

Lonely&tired She probably won't listen, but you can post from
a) an "elite" expert she'll hate
b) an expert who is a longterm Leave campaigner

a) Mark Carney, Governor BoE
Bank of England: 'No deal' Brexit could lead to economic collapse

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-no-deal-brexit-could-lead-to-economic-collapse-11566023

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England has warned:

A no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis (2008)

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

• The UK economy could shrink by 8% in 2019 * the consequences could be far worse that the BoE indicates

Its basic problem is you cannot model chaos.

And if that is the result of a "no deal" Brexit,
we could end up hoping that Carney's predictions were right."

I once played noughts and crosses with a chicken. It won.

Maybe the point of Brexit is to try and make Britain more like Germany by taking us through the exact same process ? Maybe it's an experiment on a colossal scale ?

Recession,
Depression,
Fascist Government,
Unspeakable Horrors,
International opprobrium,
Intervention,
Reformation,
Reacceptance.

That thought had occurred to me more than once dg

DGR so we can accept that we are no longer colonial imperialists.

Loving that we renamed Gibraltar, not a colony in 2002. Um, like, do they sit in HoC?

Camomila Holland comprises only 2 of the provinces that make up the Netherlands. It’s as inaccurate as saying England when you mean GBR, but not considered as offensive to the other bits, luckily!

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/we-will-deliver-a-brexit-that-mps-and-northern-ireland-can-support-pm-to-say

Privately, however, there is scepticism within the government about the possibility of a breakthrough before May returns to parliament to make a statement about her Brexit plans on 13 February.

“She’s just burning down the clock,” said one cabinet source.

Downing Street said it was still planning to give MPs the chance to vote on the government’s intentions on 14 February
after rumours in Westminster suggested it could be pushed back into the following week.
“That’s the deadline we’re working to,” said a government source.🤔

Veteran Leaver Richard North on border scams

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87138

"for all the rush to ease the flow of goods at the port,
there is yet another element that has been overlooked – the possibility of VAT fraud.

Once we have left the EU, traders will be able to recover VAT from goods exported to EU Member States.^^
It is the easiest thing in the world to over-claim on the volume of goods exported, or to slip the goods back into the UK, thence to claim again for VAT refunds.

The idea that we are potentially dealing with criminals came up yesterdayy^, and puts something of a damper on the giddy aspirations of Brexiteers for a frictionless border.
If the UK is overtly committed to maintaining a low level of import checks
- and we are no longer receiving intelligence from EU customs operations -
then we become a target for scammers and fraudsters seeking to unload dodgy goods on UK consumers.

Similarly, if the Irish border is open, it becomes a portal not only for British goods but for imports from the rest of the world,
where the UK is being used as a back door into the EU.^
^
Thus, we have Sabine Wayand (Barnier's deputy) declaringg^ that relaxing border controls "would not be goodwill"
but a dereliction of duty by public authorities in the EU
"that have a duty to ensure public health and safety of consumers, protect against unfair competition and enforce public policies and international agreements".
....
Even the BBC < but not yet John Humphries !) has realised that,
although the EU would prefer the withdrawal agreement to be settled,
they will tolerate a no-deal as the price for protecting the integrity of the Single Market.

imo, the lack of checks that is the ERG dream will last only until the first consignment of contaminated baby formula from China takes effect,
or indeed fake insulin from anywhere

Once we have left the EU, traders will be able to recover VAT from goods exported to EU Member States.

You should probably ignore everything Richard North ever writes if he thinks that. It's quite simply not how it works.

imo, the lack of checks that is the ERG dream will last only until the first consignment of contaminated baby formula from China takes effect,
or indeed fake insulin from anywhere

Don't you think it'll just be covered up?

You're still showing a lot of faith in the integrity of our media outlets...

What worries me more than the UK Exchequer losing out to VAT fraud is the real criminal stuff^

• and I don't have the knowledge to quantify the risk or the quantities that could be involved

E27 citizens are no more all saints than are Brits:
a few will take the opportunity to make a killing by unloading dodgy goods for full price:

contaminated / out of date food, unsafe electrics, flammable furniture / with poisonous fumes, toys with lead paint or unsafe components .....
pirated goods to get us in trouble with foreign companies and their host government

Quite apart from weapons, illegal drugs and even people that might be smuggled in

Indeed... no deal is a smuggler's dream (unless proper checks are implemented)

Opportunistic criminals sitting in theirs spotting opportunities for crime!

Probably that Johnny Forriner, up to no good as usual.

The lack of any massive software projects to deal with the UK as a 3rd country wrt to VAT payments suggests a period of no extra-UK trade for many companies.

There may be an option to cloudify to some US-based systems (data protection issues aside). But they're generally pisspoor and you'd probably have to get used to everything being priced in dollars (the same way you have to enter "UK" for your "state" and there's no space for "Country" ...)

I had to work with a it-was-needed-suddenly recruitment system that was an earlier example of SaaS, and it was impossible to change "resume" to "cv" for UK use as all the strings were hardcoded.

Compare and contrast with some wealth management software that I wrote the languages module for. I devised a proto-AI system that meant once a translation had been identified in one place, it could be applied throughout the system. (I was especially pleased as I stored all the flag images in the database which was cutting edge stuff in 2002).

illegal drugs

given the UK is the worlds biggest supplier of medical cannabis (probably best not go into that ), that made me smile.

Thank you! I'll know its The Netherlands for the future.