Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Peregrina don’t worry about the hair grips. I recently found out while tidying up that I have enough for the whole of Mumsnet. And I can guarantee than none have been used for ear cleaning

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Top German MEPs tell Der Spiegel defending the integrity of Single Market is more important than maintaining peace in Northern Ireland. If there's a no deal Brexit, Dublin will have to choose 'between a border without controls or the EU internal market'.

www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-eu-politiker-drohen-irland-mit-zollkontrollen-a-1251148.html

Damon Wake @damonwake (retweeted by Nick Gutteridge)
Not quite the agreed EU line on the backstop but top marks for honesty.

also

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
NEW: Ministers’ private concern over US Congress siding with Dublin. Specifically Cabinet sources point to impact on any US-UK trade deal should UK be seen to renege on commitments to Dublin.

hahahahahaha doesn't that kill off ALL chance of a US deal? We can't get one if we adhere to Dublin, but if we don't adhere to Dublin we can't get one either?!!!

Arlene Foster R4
"We have narrowed the issue down to the backstop. They know that that’s the problem. They have been told that for quite some considerable time, but unfortunately they’re turning their face against that. And it really is time for Brussels to have respect for unionism in Northern Ireland. We have heard a lot about their understanding of the Belfast Agreement, that they don’t want a hard border on the island of Ireland, but they’re quite content, apparently, to build a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, thereby interfering with the constitutional position of the United Kingdom, so that is wrong as well, and they need to recognise that."

NI voted remain.

The DUP and their precursors were they only main political group to oppose the GFA.

292,316 voted DUP and they are holding the country hostage.

440,437 people in Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the EU

It is the ten seats that are enabling the ERG and other fanatic to coerce the Tories (who seem to be a disjointed, incompetent bunch at the best of times).

Top German MEPs tell Der Spiegel defending the integrity of Single Market is more important than maintaining peace in Northern Ireland. If there's a no deal Brexit, Dublin will have to choose 'between a border without controls or the EU internal market'.

This is a dangerous statement though - if violence breaks out again, it will all be the EU's fault in the Leavers song book.

In a way it's a pity that May didn't squeak home with a majority of say 1, because she would have thrown the DUP under the bus long before now, and still would do if it was expedient.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
NEW: Ministers’ private concern over US Congress siding with Dublin. Specifically Cabinet sources point to impact on any US-UK trade deal should UK be seen to renege on commitments to Dublin.

In particular the Democratic Party takeover of the key Ways and Means Committee, the House of Representatives Committee with most influence over trade policy, that has in the past demanded trade deals be renegotiated, and in particular key Irish American Congressmen /2

Eg here is Chairman @RepRichardNeal of that key congressional trade Committee visiting the Irish border just a few weeks ago with Sinn Fein politicians - he also secured Gerry Adams an invite to the Obama inauguration /3

Sinn Féin @sinnfeinireland
@MichaelaBoyleSF MLA and @mcmonagle_gerry meeting Irish American Congressman Richard Neal at Lifford Bridge today alongside Border Communities Against Brexit to see at first hand the impact of Brexit

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Another Irish American member of the Committee @RepBrendanBoyle told Sky News “we’re v sensitive about anything that could possibly threaten the GFA, so specifically that the backstop was removed- the thing that was guaranteeing that there would be no return to a hard border“ /4

Rep Boyle raised without prompting UK-US trade deal: “If you renege, or you go back that does not affect just this current issue, but all future issues. You lose your credibility..we’re going to be looking at US-UK trade deal, so we’ll remember how good one’s credibility is.” /5

* But I can also reveal that some Conservative Brexiter parliamentarians have been lobbying the PM directly in No 10 for her to phone President Trump and get him to put pressure on Ireland to back down on the backstop /6

All these American politicians interfering with our politics and imposing their rules on us...

I voted as an 18-year-old in the 1975 election to stay in the Common Market
(Ted Heath's Tory govt took us in - without a ref - in 1972)

I actually attended a remain rally in London them at which Ted Heath spoke:
"we must get them in the voting booths"

I had read about what I was voting on
and I was perfectly clear that the aim of the then Common Market was ever closer union among the peoples of the different countries

Only people who didn't bother to examine what they were voting on could be surprised at the evolution to the present EU.

Camomila the Netherlands does allow dual nationality in certain circumstances. DD holds both British and Dutch passports (1 Dutch, 1 Brit parent, born in UK), so this could also be the same for your friend? I just had a look and (if I go and live somewhere outside the UK), I can retain my UK citizenship if I get Dutch nationality through being married to a Dutch citizen.

I don’t want to derail, but does anyone have any idea whether the Netherlands or Belgium would be a better bet to move to (just in case). I’m thinking in terms of property prices, tax on property purchase, plus schools, etc. We could live in northern Belgium and still be within easy reach of DH’s family (and the Efteling, obviously ).

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Not aware that this proposal was taken particularly seriously, or that even if it did happen that Trump would want to help. But it is interesting... /7

pesty As I posted earlier, the DUP objections may be only to the backstop,
but the ERG object to more.

For them, as Andrea Leadsome said: the backstop is only #1 on the ERG list of objections

and many of the ERG said they would STILL not vote for the WA even without the backstop

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Irish deputy PM Coveney is on Capitol Hill today, it is worth saying.. /8

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coveney-to-discuss-brexit-with-powerful-figures-in-washington-1.3776467
Coveney to discuss Brexit with powerful figures in Washington
Irish-American caucus opposition to hard border has implications for UK trade deals

I have to admit, the restraint from the US (and Senator Mitchell) over the GFA situation is to their credit. It makes the "sudden" appearance of concerns over the GFA from the US view more weighty

Either way, it's another plate for May to keep spinning.

Only people who didn't bother to examine what they were voting on could be surprised at the evolution to the present EU.

I don't entirely agree with that BigChoc, because I for one, didn't foresee the collapse of Communism. So I didn't foresee that the states of the old E Bloc would ask to join the EU, encouraged by the United Kingdom, of course. (Just in case Leavers have forgotten the last bit.) Hence the increased size.

I was under the impression that the new GDPR rules that have been forced on us by those pesky EU lot were largely Brit led too or at least the Brits were very heavily involved in them. Bloody Europeans, coming over here and making us use our own ideas.

BCF bollocks the DUP also object to everything They just do it one by one to appear normalish

That does sound like my friend :) It did seem a bit drastic.
While we’re derailing is The Netherlands more correct than Holland? I see people use both.....or I said it like a Great Britain/UK thing.

red I've been waiting all along for the powerful Irish American lobby in Congress to jump in
It's mostly Democrats, but has a few powerful Republicans, e.g. Peter King, a Trump supporter

I had expected that they would block any trade deal with the UK, if Ireland said they had been screwed.

^The only real "Special Relationships" that the USA has are with Ireland and Israel,
purely because both have sufficient influence among both politicians and ordinary voters to break almost any political career.

We saw during the Troubles that even Congressmen & Senators who didn't belong to the Irish American caucus also backed away from siding with the British govt when the irish govt - or even Sinn Fein / iRA - wanted something^

e.g. I remember the continual stream of NI Sec of States visiting there and the refusal of almost all US politicians to be photographed shaking their hands

Also the extradition of IRA suspects being blocked both legally and politically

God that was terrible grammar....’or is it like a’ is what I meant.

So I didn't foresee that the states of the old E Bloc would ask to join the EU, encouraged by the United Kingdom, of course.

Which made sense at the time ...

peregrina I meant I expected the further integration between members

I also expected that EFTA / Nordic members would gradually join

I obviously hadn't expected the East European countries to join - which was pushed by the UK and USA far too early imo and was intended to increase UK influence in the EU

Anyone else notice a lot of names returning from the past?

Should we expect a lot of remainers to return too?

We saw during the Troubles that even Congressmen & Senators who didn't belong to the Irish American caucus also backed away from siding with the British govt when the irish govt - or even Sinn Fein / iRA - wanted something

If memory serves, for all their Sonny & Cher vibes, Reagan never obliged Thatcher by repudiating the Irish position. Ultimately what "Irish" Americans think outweighs anything someone British thinks. Unless or until that British person has a vote in a US election.

Ed Byrne made a funny - and true enough - joke about if you go to New York you can't throw a stone without hitting someone of Irish descent. And even if you managed, you'd be arrested. By someone of Irish descent.

From Michael Deacon:
When it comes to Brexit, few predictions can be made with confidence. But this one can. After the UK finally leaves the EU, the Commons will spend the following decade locked in a continuous bellowing row about whether Brexit is to blame for pretty much anything that goes wrong, in any sphere of national life.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/04/row-nissan-brexit-just-taster-great-blame-game-come/

About episode 2 of the Inside Europe documentary in the Indy:

There is a lesson, too, right at the end. Tsipras seeks to heap pressure on the EU by holding a referendum in his own country over the austerity measures enforced on Greece by the EU. He wins the referendum, 62 to 38 per cent. Then, staring in the face the appalling consequences of being thrown out of the bloc, he ignores the result. “Step back from the desirable and reach for the feasible,” is how he puts it at the time.

He ignored the will of the people, and in the middle of civil unrest that was real, rather than threatened or imagined. Six months later, his people, having stared into the abyss, acknowledge he made the right decision by re-electing him.

www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/reviews/inside-europe-ten-years-of-turmoil-episode-2-review-greek-debt-crisis-brexit-a8762951.html

Dudes, has everybody forgotten the mantra never to play chess with a pigeon?