Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they are taking more notice of anonymous phone-ins and polls whilst ignoring the thousands who have actually turned out to march

Well Theresa May has already said that it's far more important to pander to people who only voted in the referendum than anyone else. So they're just following her lead. Although that probably takes second place after it's potential for bumping up the numbers they use for charging for adverts.

I suspect someone very high up at the BBC has cast the runes and decided to back Brexit all the way, so that when the revolution comes, they'll get a nice reward. You could only contemplate such a course of behaviour when you are pig-ignorant of pretty much all of history .... things never go well for turncoats - as people called Campbell might agree with.

Somewhere in Fenland, there's the ruins of an old Abbey which found itself besieged (by Vikings ?). Eventually a young novice managed to arrange to betray the abbey by leaving the doors open if he was allowed to become abbot. The raiders duly stormed the abbey, but out of respect for the Christian devotion the monks had shown spared them - except the novice who they made abbot and then hanged for treachery.

(DS used to love bedtime stories ....)

Had a horrible thought on my dog walk - the army wouldn't commandeer food banks, would they?

I'd hope they'd be the first targets. Not because I'd want that. But because I'd hope we had an army that still had a clue or two.

prettybird That Brexit poem is awesome, can I send it to family members?

I did wonder if it was a Brexit thing “no point in trying to lose weight or exercise, I’ll just wait for rationing and having to walk everywhere”

That did make me laugh, a lot.

On your next big Tesco shop, tell the checkout person to take off 50 quid and then you'll pay.

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

May close to a Commons majority for her Brexit deal after she and ERG now likely to accept 1922 Committee demand to strip out the backstop

< which is NOT the agreed WA, just their own invention >
.....
Coveney: “The European Parliament will not ratify a Withdrawal Agreement without a backstop in it. It’s as simple as that” #Marrr^
^
"^Ireland will insist on the United Kingdom keeping its word”.< good luck with that >

I've been having my extra bits delivered with my shopping as I don't have a car and with DS quite often not being able to go out I can't guarantee being able to get to the shop.

But I have been ordering bits and bobs so not really noticeable. I just order two or three tins of custard instead of the one I want, or I order a four pack of tuna one week for general use, and then another the next for the store. But I've been putting bits away for a while so hopefully it will add up to enough.

I agree, TiP
Ministers - and for that matter all MPs - should have an enquiring mind and good analytical skills, so they can weigh up expert civil service advice

The problem is that ministers have refused to listen to public service experts and instead force them out if they speak truth to power, e.g. Ivan Rogers

I just don't see why having someone who studied classics is going to make us a cutting edge leader in Environment, for example. David Cummings has ranted about genetics and intelligence but got a BA in Ancient History. People listen to them despite them never having proved that they understand what they are reading in completely different sectors to their highest qualification.

I can't help but feel the start of a circular argument here

The drooling acceptance of most of the public about what the combination of media and politicians deign to dribble into their mouths is indeed a problem. But because it's a problem that generally helps rather than hinders the system, it's not going to be changed from within.

I also like the idea of a non-expert who has to carry the can at the ballot box as a safety catch on being dictated to by "experts". A leisurely stroll through recent history will turn up a few cases where what was accepted science turned out to be at the very best poorly understood ... if not downright wrong.

Ultimately, it's all moot. There isn't a country on earth that is based around evidence as opposed to policy - even if the policy is to claim it's based around evidence. So the UK isn't unique. In fact, in some respects (AIDS in the 1980s) the UK was at the fore.

Above all, MPs should have a sense of duty

The problem is that ministers have refused to listen to public service experts and instead force them out if they speak truth to power, e.g. Ivan Rogers

It's not that simple.

The problem is they refuse to listen to some experts. All depending on which way the policy of the day is blowing.

If we had real evidence based policies our criminal law system would be unrecognisable for a start. As would our education and social welfare systems.

But then, I'm afraid we - as "society" - are to blame. A case in hand was a post recently on MN where the OP made a comment that "it was great being drunk" (I paraphrase). There was a pretty much unanimous succession of posts agreeing - mostly noting the "sweet spot" between tipsy and drunk was best. These are probably the same posters that would then virtue signal about how they would never "do drugs" without the slightest sense of irony.

Elector asks "So what does the Clerk do?"
Clerk replies "Every four years you elect a bunch of opinionated amateurs. I turn their whims into reality"

The UK has a strong split between the apolitical civil service and the legislators unlike the USA
Long may it continue.

If only we could get evidence based decision making into the mix, things might improve

Rosetti yes quite possible - am distracted by a dog with a cut paw bleeding over everything in the house refusing to sit and let me look
I suppose I want them to have at least a mild interest in the sector they get put in. I'm sure I saw a post on fb the other day with a country who elected ministers based on their qualification...Canada?
Think I need more sleep.

I think the greatest harm - in the UK and US certainly - has been how somehow politics has become a "career" - something which it really shouldn't be

I totally agree. Politicians should have had a career before entering politics. I also think we should pay them more.

freezinguplands - yes, of course you can. I told dh I was going to post it on here, so he knows it is in the public domain. All he wanted to check was I'd mentioned that he does a topical one every year

He was particularly proud of the "deranged" to rhyme with "nothing's CHANGED" which we often wail at each other : he was really struggling and ended up looking up what rhymes with 'changed' - and the first word that came up was deranged

If only we could get evidence based decision making into the mix, things might improve

Really ? How about evidence you are much more likely to be killed by a policeman than a terrorist, for example ?

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
Hinds told @SophyRidgeSky earlier he couldn’t envisage No Deal Brexit becoming govt policy. 1) Is default position if May deal fails: Presumably he thinks govt will keep on with Plan A (A+) until bitter end 2) Knows it will unleash a series govt resignations if it does (inc his?)

But Hinds position tallies with senior Treasury source who told me last week (as per @PhilipHammondUK’s Davos remarks) that taking No Deal off table silly because removes jeopardy from negotiations. But making it policy also non-starter because it’s last thing govt wants to do

And... govt would struggle to get the necessary emergency legislation through parliament for a No Deal Brexit.... Piece from last week > Ministers brace for Brexit delay - with or without an exit agreement
news.sky.com/story/ministers-brace-for-brexit-delay-with-or-without-an-exit-agreement-11615621

The Treasury think taking no deal of the table is a bad idea.

Politicians should have had a career before entering politics. I also think we should pay them more.

For myself, I couldn't really care too much about what career a politician may - or may not - have had prior to standing.

I would really care if they thought they could turn being an MP/Councillor into a 50+ year "career", as eventually all we'll end up with is a legislative body with the collective mind of an ant.

The Treasury think taking no deal off the table is a bad idea.

Maybe we could hire a new Treasury that don't think that ?

DGR
Yup, that sort of evidence should be used to nuance policy.

DH goes into schools. They ask for copies of his DBS. Cos magically a DBS makes everything OK.

If evidence was used to tweak legislation, we would get better laws.

If evidence was used to tweak legislation, we would get better laws.

All depends on your philosophy of laws. Are they there to ensure the greatest good for the greatest number ?

Or are they there to protect the ruling class from the rabble ?

At the risk of committing a debating error, I'd suggest that given it's clearly not the former, it must be the latter. Or have I caught Brexititis ? (Defined in my dictionary as an inflamed sense of self importance).

But they can't take it off the table without another plan/Eu agreement.
It isn't up to them. If a new deal/extension or anything parliament agrees is blocked in HoC we are on No Deal by default on 29th March.

One of the challenges that teachers face is that everyone has been to school, so they are all epxerts in education

I don't mind MPs who are not experts in a particular field heading up departments in that field provided that they are prepared to acknowledge that they are not experts and listen to a variety of experts and not "balance" for the sake of it

Our current government has shown a blatant lack of desire to listen to experts No, worse, they have demonstrated a blatant choice not to listen to experts, verging on a positive dislike for experts

Sky:
"Ms Rudd warned Gavin Barwell, Number 10's chief of staff, that up to 40 ministers could resign from government next week if they are forced to vote against the (Cooper) amendment."

They should put duty first, vote for the Cooper amendment .... and dare May to sack 40 ministers

MPs who voted for May's deal, so leavers, are being hounded and threatened with deselection by Leave.EU

Only no deal is the real deal, WTF??

twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1089515620927000577

leave.eu/deselect-your-remainer-tory-mp

This is getting quite hardcore.

Sorry, HoL
I'll step away from the screen for a few mins...