Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

He reckons that there is a lot of brinkmanship going on ("normal for negotiations"), that an extension is likely, that in the event of no deal there will be short term- keep-things-going sort of agreements with the EU keep-things-going sort of agreements? With a trade block while we are on WTO rules? Given all that is going on it is worrying a senior civil servant would be so wishy washy.

twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1089530165116485632?s=19

A brexiter so dim he’s saying the secret plan to blame the EU out loud t.co/0YywYOeAd1

So true.

Lonelyand Tired I thought WTO rules applied to countries with which we had no other trade agreement? However, I'm no expert. DS not wishy washy - strongly pro Remain, but thinks the serious problems will be long rather than short term.

There's a bill going through parliament tomorrow that removes existing rights protections from EU citizens in britain. But don't worry the government have promised that they will be protected despite their new law saying that they won't. Bastards.

www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/joint-select/human-rights-committee/news-parliament-2017/home-secretary-immigration-bill-correspondence-17-19/?fbclid=IwAR2oclvVC825KDEXsRaeB-LimLnDdZ5QMUIff6zwHuB4M6ZduSaSxru8wAg

Missbel
WTO rules apply to any goods (but not services) on which there is no other trade deal
so some goods from lots of countries are on WTO, others are not.

Missbel has he said what the long term problems will be? I've always worried more about long term...not that short term looks great either.

Years ago I read a Nevil Shute book from my parent’s bookcase.
Set in Australia I think where people had to earn votes.
Everyone got one but theybcould get up to 7 for things like higher education, working overseas, raising children, earning a certain salary level, being a church official, the last one was very rare and was given by the queen.
Now I thought it was very elitist and that Shute had some interesting ideas but was a man of his time with all the bigotry that involved.
I still do.
Obviously I am not suggesting that anything like that could, or should, be imposed anywhere today.
Makes me think a bit though and wonder if maybe MPs should have to fulfill certain (not the same) conditions before they stand for election.

Hazardswan I think the long term consequences he worries about are a mixture of things including loss of jobs, rising prices, loss of environmental protections (that's a big one for him), security of energy supplies, and most importantly, general economic decline leading to worsening conditions for most of us.

Thanks Ta1kin Peace.

I honestly haven't heard any Remainers suggesting "action." It's all been Brexiteers (which makes their applauding the news a tad silly ...)

I know, I haven’t either. I was referring to you saying Brexiteers will suffer first because ‘Leave areas’ will suffer more through shortages and disruption. This will also affect Remainers.

Sorry, I’m probably over sensitive on this point due to previous posts (not saying your posts btw) that take a slightly gloating view of anything that befalls Kent/Cornwall etc.

Makes me think a bit though and wonder if maybe MPs should have to fulfill certain (not the same) conditions before they stand for election.

Interestingly, there's a thread about an 18 year old standing for election elsewhere ...

I think the greatest harm - in the UK and US certainly - has been how somehow politics has become a "career" - something which it really shouldn't be. If you wanted a list of simple changes that could be made to our system that would effect the greatest change, then limiting all offices to terms of (say) two times would be up there close to the top.

I'd happily accept that, and not worry too much about placing any other conditions on candidacy.

Now the Brexit beast is unleashed, and starting to snarl at all - regardless of who they are - it's not a bad idea to feed some ideas into it's mind for after the revolution.

I used to work in overseas aid.
We lived in an ordinary house in town but things like some food supplies were provided for us.
When there was sudden rebel activity nearby the airport closed, roads closed and thousands of people streamed into the town for safety.
Shops were quickly emptied of all their food and no more could get in.
We shared our food with the people who worked for us but obviously didn’t have enough to share with everyone and what we had we needed for our family, including small children.
We had armed police sitting outside our house guarding us as otherwise people might break in to steal food.
Now that’s an extreme example but I really never imagined that the UK could be potentially getting anywhere near that situation.

Praying here for revoke as is my ex-leaver mum. She is upping her game re food supplies.

SOrry Missbel I didn't mean to snap/sound rude. Apologies. I just worry that even while the Civil Service are preparing for catastrophe (comparing it to the Icelandic eruption, but far worse) some people within don't seem to understand the real possibility of a no deal and the immediate consequences. Sterling will decline, sharply, immediately. That will tip many people into not being able to afford food as prices to import are upped with the uncertain supply line. I guess I just wanted to hear they were actually preparing as we had been reading in the news. Sorry for being short.

Rosetti I also feel strongly that any politician who takes over a sector should have at LEAST a degree in the subject. Gove heading Environmental is such a worry now we have nothing to hold us accountable. How refreshing would it be if the Health Secretary had actually worked in Health and studied medicine or similar? If the agricultural minister had a farm and had studied agriculture?

Sorry, I’m probably over sensitive on this point due to previous posts (not saying your posts btw) that take a slightly gloating view of anything that befalls Kent/Cornwall etc.

We all take things as we find them ... I don't think I was being gloaty (hears voice of Sir Percy oo you heartless gloaters ... ). However it's only human to view misfortune that befalls your enemy in a slightly differently light to that which befalls your family.

I think the most dangerous long term consequences will be how such a divided nation can be united in a period of adversity where each side blames the other ? "No jobs for Leavers" ? "We only serve Remainers" ? For now, I can use question marks. But for how much longer ?

(Note you won't be able to accurately check if someones a Leaver or Remainer. But then racists and benefit bashers have never checked their facts either and that's been acceptable for ages)

A more real - and already emerging - consequence will be the flight of skills that 90% of the Great British Public have no idea about. Because below a certain level, it will become impossible to sustain certain industries or areas of industry. Leaving the UK dependent on the goodwill of others.

Are MPs genuinely confused about Murrison II, or just ingenuous ?

Paul Masterton MP@PM4EastRen

Plus, I supported the deal with the backstop as is (and would do so again), so why would I be whipped to vote to say I'll now only accept it with a fundamental change?

This is for those who voted against to show what they need to accept, surely?
Not for Gov to change position?
.........

Ok, I'm confused. The WA and PD provide for the backstop to be replaced by alternative arrangements which secure a clear border. If you think those arrangements already exist, then they'll be part of the future relationship so the backstop won't be needed, so what's the worry?

Rosetti I also feel strongly that any politician who takes over a sector should have at LEAST a degree in the subject. Gove heading Environmental is such a worry now we have nothing to hold us accountable. How refreshing would it be if the Health Secretary had actually worked in Health and studied medicine or similar? If the agricultural minister had a farm and had studied agriculture?

... and I feel the exact opposite . We pay a fucking Kings Ransom to provide our elected leaders with information, analysis, data and current thinking in science. In order that they can make political decisions. It's one guarantee against government by expert.

In my world, anyone who can vote, can stand. But only be elected twice.

I have a mild terror of scientists who think they are right.

Also, the UK doesn't do evidence based policy - the public wouldn't stand for it. Much better to deal in feelz than facts.

What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they are taking more notice of anonymous phone-ins and polls whilst ignoring the thousands who have actually turned out to march.

When it comes down to bodies on the ground, the Remainers have vastly outnumbered the paltry, pathetic Leaver numbers they managed to scare up. I suspect "No Deal" fanatics would be even thinner on the ground.

It is so easy to manipulate social media, phone-ins and polls. The Trans movement have been openly boasting how they have multiple accounts and numbers to make themselves look far more than they really are.
Have we learned nothing from the Cambridge Analytical scandal?

This is why your friends and family don't want to talk about it. They feel just as helpless and manipulated as you do. It's the rabbit in the headlights syndrome, isn't it? People feel they are utterly powerless to do anything to stop this: many have tried and been ignored. So they feel there's no point in doing any more: they have no real power or say in what happens.

The only way you would have found out what people really want is with a People's Vote. Perhaps that's why they didn't want to have one: they couldn't give a damn what the people really want.

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

“Ireland, you’re using the Border, no wait,
the EU is using the Border, no wait
you’re using the EU for, no wait
you’re being used by the EU, no wait
you’re naive, no wait
you’re our best friends ever, no wait
you’ve always hated us, no wait
OH JUST DO WHAT WE TELL YOU IRELAND”

Had a horrible thought on my dog walk - the army wouldn't commandeer food banks, would they? Just thinking it would be an easy target for hungry leave voters to descend on en-mob (was imagining placards with justifying slogans like "get a job" or "we gave to you now give to us") then I realised volunteers wouldn't want to risk life and limb...so army steps in. But how will they decide who gets the food? People on the food bank books or will all of the food be 'repatriated' if needed? Going a bit dystopian here, just realised huge warehouses of food aren't going to stay secret for long

I asked my manager last week if Trussell trust had issued brexit advice.

No.

Corbyn may have decided he wants the blame for Brexshit ...

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

Worth noting, in case it happens,
there is a chance Corbyn might decide late not to whip Labour MPs in support of Cooper's amendment

I also feel strongly that any politician who takes over a sector should have at LEAST a degree in the subject
Nope. Utterly disagree.
The Civil Service provides the expertise.
Ministers come up with an idea.
Civil servants produce the evidence papers / the implementation.

The missing part is the politicians listening to the evidence

Rosetti see I would rather have someone who reviews evidence based policy, but that's probably due to my degree bias .

I just don't see why having someone who studied classics is going to make us a cutting edge leader in Environment, for example. David Cummings has ranted about genetics and intelligence but got a BA in Ancient History. People listen to them despite them never having proved that they understand what they are reading in completely different sectors to their highest qualification.

@LonelyandTiredandLow , I'd guard against going all dystopian over Brexit. Even as a prepper, I say this.