Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Thanks, red 💐

imo, martial law and soldiers on the streets isn't something that would scare Leavers as much as Remainers,
because authoritarians like that sort of thing
For them it would be security, a visible sign of taking back control, over the Remainers and anyone else who has different views to them.

Also, I strongly disagree with a few pp who say May is bluffing about No Deal
She has shown throughout that she will sacrifice the country in order to keep the Tory party united.

You are the ones being naive: thinking that she and / or Parliament will put the country first
Revoke or PV would clearly tear apart the Tory party,
as would an extension
(unless just maybe for the clearly stated purpose of more time for No Deal prepping)^

With the total abdication of responsibility by Labour and the disillusion & apathy of many Labour Remain voters,
the Tories would have a decent chance of winning a GE some time after Brexit, especially under a new leader.
Also, protests may well have been discouraged & intimidated by a military clampdown

We are baking our gingerbread now. It really helps the anxiety.

If nothing else, Brexit has certain provided enough evidence for many lifetimes assertions of feeling slightly wary of your fellow citizens grasp on reality facts.

Just seen a spat via FB, where someone said talk of martial was "nonsense" as "British troops would never fire on British citizens".

I did ask how Bloody Sunday was filed in 1972 then, and (so far) no reply.

Just wondering, what sort of data is kept offshore , if that is the correct terminology, and how that could be effected by no deal ? I remember something in the news a while ago about the NHS being granted permission to offshore their data, not sure about other agencies ?

I suspect the first victims of any martial law gone wrong incidents will be predominantly Brexiteers. Mainly because they've been so gobby all along, but also because I suspect it will an unavoidable function of demographics and geography that Leave areas will be the first to suffer in the event of shortages and distribution problems.

In the constituency in which I live a substantial majority of voters voted to leave but 25,000 here voted Remain.

When bad things happen in so called ‘Leave areas’ they happen to Remainers as well.

Can we grasp at straws?

Netflix will ok whatever?
T.v. in general?
We may revoke?
There might be a PV?
Errrmmm...
Errr...
Cooper amendment might succeed?

I need more straws...

DH and I have tidied up the propagation area in the polytunnel
and I've been looking up how to store excess veg more effectively
but the radio stays turned off nowadays because the news is too depressing

On the other hand, are we being softened up for a revoke

I’ve been wondering about this. May did say failure to support her risked no Brexit at all.

I think if parliament gets the opportunity to vote again for her WA (or a version of it) and the Leavers fail to support it. Then I think she might revoke.

Suddenly Xenias old island looks more and more attractive .....

😾
Thanking with a sad kitty

Can we grasp at straws?

The sun and the moon will continue to rise and set. There is certainty in death and taxes. We will remain united in our national obsession of what will the weather do.

Just wondering, what sort of data is kept offshore , if that is the correct terminology, and how that could be effected by no deal ? I remember something in the news a while ago about the NHS being granted permission to offshore their data, not sure about other agencies ?

Currently all data held outside the EU has to be protected by a certain level of security (whether it is or not is a matter of debate going through the courts as we speak - Max Schrems is your Google point for that).

As regards Brexit, it should make little difference, as the EU will not be allowed to pass data to the UK unless the UK guarantees - in law - a level of protection and privacy. In theory you could end up in a situation where UK citizens have no protection over their data, but EU citizens as customers or employees of UK companies do.

Moving forward, the UK has been slapped down about being involved in EU data protection policies. So the options will either be to flounce out, and give up on dealing with the EU, or knuckle under and agree to provide legal protection to EU personal data.

Meanwhile, the US is starting to look at the UKs regime (best word for it) and make some disparaging noises.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/02/2019_eprivacy_brexit/

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/22/privacy_shield_ombudsperson/

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/28/cloud_act_uk_human_rights_violation/

Quite an eye opener to see US organisations deciding that the UKs human rights record is a bit below par ....

When bad things happen in so called ‘Leave areas’ they happen to Remainers as well.

I know. But if each side lives up to their hype, then Remainers will be keeping their heads down, and Brexiteers will be taking to the streets.

I honestly haven't heard any Remainers suggesting "action." It's all been Brexiteers (which makes their applauding the news a tad silly ...)

Netflix will be ok whatever?

Maybe "stocking up" should also involve building a library of DVDs, VHS tapes and for the extreme Brexiteers, a room of 78s ?

Here's what happened when JRM wanted to upgrade his "system"

On the point of those of Irish descent. I live in a very pro leave area and am dual heritage. With my natural hair I do look stereotypically Celtic. I've had pops made at me about being here for the benefits (I don't receive any but facts eh?) in the immediate aftermath of the referendum and later witnessed a poor Scot being told to eff off home for daring to ask a supermarket worker where the butter was (it wasn't the worker who told him to eff off I should point out). I'm can't say how representative of high leave voting areas mine is but it is used quite often as the go to leave area on tv.

😯

The gym I go to is normally teeming with new people in January, but I’ve not noticed many this year. I did wonder if it was a Brexit thing “no point in trying to lose weight or exercise, I’ll just wait for rationing and having to walk everywhere”

pops made at me about being here for the benefits

Oh Jesus.

As an aside, I've noticed this pervasive belief that Britain is the only country that provides benefits. It's weird.

The UK going down the tubes is going to provide so much anti-socialism fodder in the US.

I was chatting to DS who is a reasonably senior civil servant. He reckons that there is a lot of brinkmanship going on ("normal for negotiations"), that an extension is likely, that in the event of no deal there will be short term- keep-things-going sort of agreements with the EU; he's not sure what the military stuff is all about, other than soldiers marshalling lorries...so far so good...but also that we really haven't begun to understand how grim the long term consequences of Brexit will be.

Oh and apparently smuggling garlic into the EU is big business ... a new trade opportunity for the Isle of Wight?

I predicated a surge in anti Irish sentiment.

I'm sadly unsurprised.

And with tensions rising would we face hostility in our new home anyway. What if we went and it didn't suit us?

DH and I were discussing a possible move to Ireland the other day, but he's worried that if the GFA goes down the tube due to brexit then being English in Ireland might not be a barrel of laughs. As much as I'd like to discount the idea I can't help feeling it's a legitimate worry.

www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/garlic-smuggler-released-early-from-prison-1.1339440?mode=amp

Here we go, blaming the EU for a no deal. This is the Govt's position now.

twitter.com/montie/status/1089500126333337600?s=19

Seems he's getting torn a new one from the responses to the tweet. Diddums.

Peoples Vote campaign asking supporters to email their MPs to back amendments today. Just did the standard PV template and edited it with passive aggressive inputs.

It's a straw to cling to....the email not my passive aggressive inputs.

If brexit happens then I will be hysterical and blaming leavers for the bad weather