Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Quite a few jobs going in DHs area of expertise in Dublin. Even a couple I might go for.

I don't want to leave this country, it's my home. We have a life here, and a house in a nice place and our friends and families. We had some really bad, unexpected family news yesterday and only being a couple of hours drive away is really comforting at the moment, if we're needed.

But it's good to have a backup plan. I can't believe I feel the need for a backup plan...

Where have all the flag waving leave posters gone? You still see them all over the BBC.

And for Irish people, or those of Irish descent.

Already happening in small ways. I'm dual national English/Irish. Over the last two years the amount of friends who have said 'it's alright for you, you can just go to Ireland'.

Well, no. I haven't lived there since I was three.

Yes, I would get a higher rate of benefits, but there could be no guarantee of free healthcare. I have a chronic, disabling medical condition and I don't have €50 for each doctors appointment and €fuck knows how much for each hospital admission.

I'd have to live in Dublin to get the treatment I need. All the family live in the West or on the south coast - no treatment there. Would have to go to Dublin.

Oh yeah, and I don't want to.

Popping out of lurkdom to ask whether anyone else heard The Food Programme on R4 just now? Sober listening - literally, the production felt really sober, not sensational, speaking to a range of people who we absolutely not "ra ra this will be great". Obviously had the numpty saying it'll all be OK and if our farmers go out of business as a result of US trade deal/chlorinated chicken etc then so be it, they weren't good enough (am paraphrasing!) And someone saying we need to go back to not being as reliant on importing food (when was the last time that happened?)

But it did also talk about stockpiling, JIT and supply chains, possibility of disruption etc. All a bit chilling (although clearly not anything I am not aware of and preparing for)

And by the way - late to the party but Y9 child: said England and then United Kingdom - didn't know longer form but did at least know the constituent parts... I have had arguments at work with grown adults who don't know that..

Where have all the flag waving leave posters gone?

MN is very infertile territory for leave: most users have dependents and will be in the front line of any Brexit disruption to food/medicine. If you have small kids or care for a disabled child or relative, not having food or medicine is one of your greatest fears.

Plus, you can't mute or block users here, so if leavers want to participate on Brexit threads they can't tune out the remainers. And the MN remainers are many, loud and mostly well informed and eloquent .

Basically I think MN is one of the very few places where remain has won the culture war.

Yes, I would get a higher rate of benefits, but there could be no guarantee of free healthcare. I have a chronic, disabling medical condition and I don't have €50 for each doctors appointment and €fuck knows how much for each hospital admission.

People on benefits don't pay for health care though you might be on long waiting lists, depending on the condition. People on disability allowance are also entitled to free public transport.

Aside from the Burn's night work of genius (Prettybird's DH ) I have nothing to say, for once in my life.
I'm doing more 'forward purchasing' instead.

Bellini We're having most of our stocks delivered with our usual groceries. DH asked if it's a bit naive of us to do so, because the supermarket delivery men sometimes comment, and therefore know we have it/our address. (I laugh it off as 'a few supplies just in case of snow' but even so, should we buy buying it in person in shops instead?)

Hope you enjoyed your weekend away, Somerville.

We're all NHS workers here. I'm googling work in Ireland right now. Hard to find because there's no 'NHS Jobs' but senior clinicians like myself seem to be paid about £20k more.

It wouldn't surprise me if it all goes tits up if English-speaking nations heavily recruit from the NHS. Clinicians like myself have a high level of qualification and expertise.

With an elderly parent, family and old friends all within a 2 hour drive I'd be reluctant to leave my home. Im not sure how my SEN DS woukd cope.

But I'm not living in a country where we end up with poverty and hunger and a return to near-feudal times.

What will happen to UK cancer patients, without radium or maybe drugs? Is there an option to travel abroad for treatment?

Of course there is.

If you can afford it.

I have just deactivated my twitter account as my stress levels are becoming stratospheric. This thread is now by go to source of information as I know some of you bring us the key developments so I don't have to obsess over journalists accounts and get drawn into the comments. OMG the comments.
DD likely to be starting university in the Autumn so feeling pretty stuck here. We've got Irish passports though. I am taking some heart from the comment that we could rejoin the day after we leave but without the perks. The kick up the arse we so richly deserve.

Given how long it is between now and 29th March, another interesting angle is to consider the degrees of freedom available to the press.

If 29th is B-Day: day zero, then we are currently at B-61 days ? If we take that the current reportage is hovering around the "90%" mark (not really sure how much you can minimise official contemplation of martial law to make it under the 100% mark ?) then what scale is available to get us from 90% to 100% in 61 days ?

At that trajectory, the Queens death would be lost after 48 hours.

Of course, looking the other way - that talk of martial law is a load of bollocks is the fact that unless there is a very well rehearsed mechanism available for the design, production and issuing of ID cards (you could call them "pass cards") it's very likely to be ALOAB . After all, the Great British Public have hardly got a good track record at applying reason to news headlines.

If you’re of a nervous disposition DO NOT read The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver. All too close to home

I’ve been wanting to read the Mandibles for ages (have a vague idea of the plot) but I’m too scared.

Dh and I have no escape route from the U.K. I don’t know what the hell we are going to do.

Some poor fool has been naive enough to post about martial law on our local FB site which is full of white middle aged wealthy MC Brexiteers.

It's like turbo charged Brexit bingo:

Of course they're planning martial law, how naive to think they wouldn't? Any sensible government would.
Only sensible of the government because idiot Remoaners will be rioting once we get our no deal.
If we don't get no deal we'll need it because the people who voted for it will riot.
It's all project fear.

So, no one horrified at the thought then. All gearing up for civil war by the sounds of it. I'll keep prepping, stay indoors and try to dodge the rubber bullets.

I deactivated Twitter last year.

There's a certain irony in the fact that as we edge closer to B-day and fuck all of any of the Brexiteer predictions have come true, they really are starting to look - and act - like a paper tiger.

There must have been a point at which Remainer discussions which were dismissed as "scaremongering" somehow slipped behind Breixteer discussions about the same topic- which are of course "sensible" ? It would be too perfect if it were true, but it feels like it's coincident with the crossover from Leave to Remain of earlier this month ....

I really considered retiring to Ireland. DB and DSIL have a property (her family home) in the South East, whereas my Mum’s family were from Kilkenny/Cork, so I looked in a number of places. In the end I decided that being near DCs and DGCs so I could do some childcare easily when required, was more important, so I stayed in England and just moved three stations further down the line from London. The other thing was medical care - the NHS is creaking and groaning but is still free at the point of delivery, and I have a couple of conditions that need monitoring. The third thing was work. So here I am...

Bellini We're having most of our stocks delivered with our usual groceries. DH asked if it's a bit naive of us to do so, because the supermarket delivery men sometimes comment, and therefore know we have it/our address. (I laugh it off as 'a few supplies just in case of snow' but even so, should we buy buying it in person in shops instead?)

Somerville I’ve been wondering the same thing for a while now and will be very interested to hear Bellini’s view.

It’s been logistically difficult for us to get to the supermarket lately and I’ve done quite a few online ‘forward purchasing’ shops. I tend to vary the companies I use though. None of our delivery drivers have actually said anything though I think I noted a raised eyebrow at the number of tins of tomatoes I had.

I just commented to ds1 that I don't remember food and meds stockpiling or martial law in the leave.eu propaganda.....

Elements, it is what it is. I can't force DH to do anything. I can only advise him and express my opinion and preference. We do potentially have an exit, and if we stay I think we will fair better than most anyway. Not that I like that thought and want to take the gamble. It's more that it's out of my hands.

The only control I have is to speak of what I know, to keep informed to what's happening and developing, to get comfort from all you guys and 'forward purchase' . DH is a smart guy and I know the preferences and decisions he's made haven't been completely without me, they just aren't necessarily what I would choose for us all alone either.

As an aside to points above from others about being Irish. My great grandfather was living and working in France and the outbreak of WW1. He was a trainer of race horses. He returned to London and married my great grandmother (also Irish) very soon after. He then tried to take work with horses in the UK, but as you will know if you've seen Warhorse, his opportunities were limited. In the end they only work available with horses was for the army. So he enlisted.

But as an Irishman who did so at this time, it also meant he could never return to his home town in Tipperary. He had to stay in the UK.

He and his family suffered much abuse after the war as Irish Catholics. He could only find work as a docker.

This story is also a worry for me, in the sense that if we did move abroad could we return? And with tensions rising would we face hostility in our new home anyway. What if we went and it didn't suit us? What if everything went bad and DH lost his job? What security would we have in that situation? What if we divorced? What about my pension? Etc etc.

These choices are not easy, nor clear cut. I think even now, as a family, we have more choices than most. We have a home in a good place and we aren't currently mortgaged up to the hilt. DH's prospects are good. And we are all fit and healthy.

I have to keep reminding myself of these on my more difficult days. And reading the situation of many others here, I often find it heartbreaking and difficult. Things could be harder.

It's the 'what ifs' and the double questioning of yourself that are hard right now. The uncertainty plays with your mind.

Just how bad is it likely to get? Teenage DC has friends in an EU country, and speaks the language. Should I think about asking them to take her in, before Brexit, with me paying their expenses?

RTB

On the other hand, are we being softened up for a revoke ?

Thanks ballyhoo we did. And was mainly successful in taking a break from all the political turmoil. But couldn't avoid noticing that the people we were with were noticibly more hedonistic than usual... had given up on dry January and were living it very large. I wonder if it's the start of a semi-conscious rebellion against the rapid rise of authoritarianism.

((({{{ ]}}})))
Stockpiling brackets