Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Pmk

Pmk

Anyone feel like starting a petition to ensure that the families of anyone shot have to pay for the ammunition ?

I'm actually rather perky about all this. There's a refreshing honesty when government ministers can openly discuss martial law ... it's so unambiguous. It's also coming from the government - gatekeepers of Brexit - which makes it less "Project Fear" and more Project Fear Us

PMK.
OMG
FFS
SOS

I haven't cried over Brexit since 2016. Today I can't stop. That we have come to this horrifies me. This is unbearable.

Do you have any legal idea on whether the government can make a compulsory purchase of my arable farmlands?

DH and I talked about this, this morning. Yes they could BUT the land is effectively worthless without the person who farms that land doing so, because of the skills and knowledge it takes to make that land worth something.

More likely I would suggest the seizing of PRODUCE from that farm.

And there's an issue with that. If a farmer isn't paid decent compensation for this, where is the incentive to work as hard?

Historic seizure of agriculture lands and food hasn't had a good track record in many cases. We tend to think more in terms of WWII dig for victory campaigns as a nation.

I'd suggest that this is possibly the successful example at a time where there were much more knowledge and skills and farmers were treated well.

If we are however resorting to civil contingency laws in a shock situation, with poor planning its hard to think that farmers would be well respected and considered and we don't have the same level of skills available. Plus we have higher expectations of animal welfare etc as a society than we did in WWII.

We personally know a farmer who has recently invested a huge amount on a new venture to help support the farm, and it makes you wonder about his future and what happens to those plans. Many farmers do not simply rely on the basic produce they produce, since it does not generate enough revenue on its own to make a living.

If you lose control of your farm or what happens to your basic produce, then this raises questions for your long term prospects.

Feeding the country to stop it starving, only works if you know you also aren't going to be so financially shafted that you are at risk of starving to enable it. Otherwise you'd fight tooth and nail to retain contain of your land and property anyway.

I think it will be horrible for Continental Europeans living here in heavily pro-leave areas

And for Irish people, or those of Irish descent.

Who else finds themselves wondering what must be going on behind the scenes, if this much shit is being stirred in the public arena ?

I do DG. It's now acceptable for an MP to rip up a German man's letter on national TV while ranting about German arrogance and the second world war. What is being said in private? See also John Humphreys on Radio 4 - not even so much the appalling suggestion, but the phrasing.

Dublin telling this country that we have to stay in the single market etc

What's being said in private? See also Michael Gove and The Price of Peace.

See also Theresa May on HRA. “If our human rights laws stop us from doing it, we will change the laws so we can do it.”

What is being said in private?

As the Mumsnet adage goes when someone tells you who they are, believe them.

And there's an issue with that. If a farmer isn't paid decent compensation for this, where is the incentive to work as hard?

A 9mm gun to the head - or a family members head - is a wonderful incentive. And would only be the Norman heritage in English blood coming out again. Look out Yorkshire !

My partner is a hill farmer. He barely makes a living as it is and he cannot see how he will do so after Brexit. Increases in feed costs, a loss of EU markets and the ending of subsidies will mean the end of his farming.

And almost on time, is a "social media" ban - for our own protection, of course.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47019912

We've looked at "house porn" on line in Dublin before. Thanks for the heads up in renting there. I've got the joy of working out if DP's condition could be managed over there, I've said before that Irish patients come to London to see his specialist as do French.

If anyone is interested from Holyhead the journey is under 4 hours. From Liverpool it takes a lot longer from what I've read. If we go before brexit the dog just needs one rabies shot for his passport.

This is a crazy plan Z...

Interesting article (that happens to mirror my long held view) about tides of immigration
www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/what-goes-up-population-crisis-wrong-fertility-rates-decline

Do you have any legal idea on whether the government can make a compulsory purchase of my arable farmlands?

DH and I talked about this, this morning. Yes they could BUT the land is effectively worthless without the person who farms that land doing so, because of the skills and knowledge it takes to make that land worth something.

Indeed: look what happened as a result of the land grabs in Zimbabwe and the eviction of the skilled farmers. From being the bread basket of Africa to not able to feed its own population

Not as critical to food supply, but I've a seen a similar thing happen in South Africa. The tea plantations near where my aunt lives were appropriated by the local chief. They are now thickets of overgrown camellias, 10 feet high They will never be productive again unless they are grubbed up and re-planted. And there are not many other crops that grow well in that climate, nor employ as many people

What will happen to UK cancer patients, without radium or maybe drugs? Is there an option to travel abroad for treatment?

Actually I'm enjoying the current LBC debate...a good fact-based remainer host is tying up leaver arguments in knots...

I'd suggest that this is possibly the successful example at a time where there were much more knowledge and skills and farmers were treated well.

At the end of the last war, the nearest village to me had five working farms. Now there are two, neither of which are profitable solely with farming. So it's the now usual stuff of car boot sales, renting out buildings and such like.

I've got plans in place.

If dh insists on staying then I can't stop him :(

I've seen the words "social media" and "purge" in the same sentence in relation to that story. Which yeah... Troubling.

Actually I'm enjoying the current LBC debate...a good fact-based remainer host is tying up leaver arguments in knots...

But to what end? Who is listening? Only people who already know this is a disaster.

I've lived under martial law in another country. I followed a strict policy of keeping my head down, staying in and eating what little supplies I had - chocolate hobnobs and weetabix. I was single and lived alone and all was ok until my water pipes burst. I lived inside an exclusion zone in the capital city and my usual "fixer" lived outside. I managed to turn off the stop cock and waited it out.
I left that country soon after.
I prep so that I never find myself in that situation again as far as I can manage. Obviously there is always the unexpected but as long as I have the means to feed our family, keep warm and keep cheerful, I can cope with the unexpected.
I don't think Brexit will come to what I lived through in that other country but I ain't taking any chances. Not with my daughter and dh.

FFS. Plan Z is dead. The Irish patients have to fund raise to travel to London every few months which I would take to mean the local services are shite. DP couldn't manage the travel regularly.

Tonsilss not quite what you asked but some Kent cancer patients already go to France for treatment, paid for by the NHS and last I read that would continue post brexit. Room to extend that to all the SE perhaps? Think they travel by eurostar. As for how well that'll run is anyone's guess but I say probably not great.

And for Irish people, or those of Irish descent.

I guess it depends what you mean by 'of Irish descent' (I.e. how many generations back?) but a lot of pro-leave areas have a very high population of Irish descent. I don't know how many of us that are English have Irish descent but it must be very high?

Stoke for example had a lot of immigration from Ireland and is heavily pro-leave.

DH had a FIRM job offer of work in the EU on FRIDAY.

Gosh RTB - At this late date though, it's actually really hard to contemplate moving abroad, with all the complications and legalities involved. With the possible No Deal crash-out so close, there's a real fear of being tangled up in a bureaucratic mess of paralysed services (leaving aside more chaotic, bad, possibilities).

That's why I'm annoyed (and trying not to show it) at DH, because since mid-2016 there were several possible jobs abroad that he could have gone for which would have made for a pretty smooth, easy move (as far as moving abroad goes). The last one, instead of just going "oh look, they're advertising for [perfect senior academic post] at [university abroad]" and then doing nothing, he actually applied - and made it through various layers of selection, then just as they were going to fly him out there for final interview decided that he wanted us to stay in the UK .

Anyway, no point crying over spilt milk. We just have to sit tight for now and wait for the Sunlit Uplands to arrive.

The Irish patients have to fund raise to travel to London every few months which I would take to mean the local services are shite.

I'd imagine that won't be happening in the event of no deal in any case.

but a lot of pro-leave areas have a very high population of Irish descent

Well won't they be in for a great big surprise.

PMK

If you’re of a nervous disposition DO NOT read The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver. All too close to home.