Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

I have just made a formal complaint to the BBC about that John Humphrys interview - it was in breach of BBC guidelines.

I suspect the first victims of any martial law gone wrong incidents will be predominantly Brexiteers. Mainly because they've been so gobby all along, but also because I suspect it will an unavoidable function of demographics and geography that Leave areas will be the first to suffer in the event of shortages and distribution problems.

I wonder when the last time martial law was declared on the mainland in peacetime ? Peterloo ?

Tinfoil hatters will have already joined the dots with the story a few days ago that some Tories feel the army shouldn't have to abide by any human rights restrictions ... so their right to shoot trumps your right to life.

PMK

I think people know they were fools to vote Leave.

They will clutch at any straw to stop them having to self-confess the terrible truth.

They have enabled a right-wing coup and devastation for themselves and their children.

The backstop/EU blaming is patent nonsense. But is enough.

It will leave the UK's international reputation in tatters. It facilitates No Deal.

But these last few years have unleashed insanity the like of which I never thought I'd see.

And I include Corbyn-mania in that.

A belated answer to Spudlet: nearly right with 1921, it was 1922.
I had visitors and in that time the thread filled up.

FFS. Beam me up Scotty.

Glad for you elements better late than never?

Dh will never admit he was wrong to dismiss my concerns . Ever. But he's certainly now on board with stockpiling.

I'm sure he'll also be on board with my ideas to save the planet :)

Agreed cat. After the bizarre religious rant I got far too early this morning, a leaver has since assured me he will tell me he told me so when, in a year, Brexit hasn't happened.
They still think they will be swizzled.
I think it is too much to hope for and can't see how it will not be No Deal, forgoeing terrorism or an act of natural disaster in the next few weeks.

Peregrina I'm claiming half a mark for that, due to vomming mitigation

Spudlet - you sell yourself short - I thought you deserved a 3/4 mark at least.

Woohoo!

You know, I sometimes wonder if the whole Leave, 'Brexit will be snatched from us!' Is actually a cry for help. They know it's a fucking stupid thing to do, they can't believe anyone in power is going along with it, they're as scared as the rest of us, they (secretly) want it stopped.

Stupid fuckers.

I've finally figured out how to link to Peston's latest FB post rather than copy and paste the whole thing...

www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2264534777204588/

Peston believes there are signs that the PM may endorse Murrison II but that it will be a 'car crash' for two reasons:

"First, if parliament were to reject an amendment gilded by the PM's imprimatur, all hope for her would then be lost of being able to persuade the EU that any changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit plan would secure the ratification of MPs. At that point the choice for the UK really would be a no-deal Brexit or no Brexit.

Second, even if parliament did back the amendment, what it demands is so big and complex that the rest of the EU might respond by either saying "non, nein, never" or by saying that the change is so hard and complex that Brexit would have to be delayed for months - which the Tories MPs who drafted the amendment would say negated the whole point of their attempted compromise.

Again no-Brexit or no-deal would swiftly ensue."

Thank you apile just reading up on the common travel area. Will do more research and then speak to DP depending on Tuesday's shit show. It would be a plan Z but I love having a plan Z!

Yes, pride is a terrible thing cat and Leavers aren't well known for hubris. Actually admitting that he was unaware of our links to Calais trade needs as an island was the first time I've ever heard a leaver admit any mistake.

Have had another weird message (I think more people have seen Martial Law and been spooked than we thought!) from someone who has buried their head about this Brexit malarky from the start.
"Hi. Do you have any legal idea on whether the government can make a compulsory purchase of my arable farmlands? Is your old boss able to protect against this? Could you email him please. Thx." Now, I've not worked in 7 years...maybe because I post on fb about Brexit i'm getting the brunt of everyone's desperation?

I didn't realise British people could move to Ireland that easily either.

Plan A for us is just to save as much money as we can now and hope we don't get too badly impacted. We're lucky that we have plenty of scope to reduce our outgoings if we need to because of inflation/interest rates/food costs.

I think Plan B would be to try to rent our house out and move in with PILs who live down the road (if I'm out of work).

Plan C might be Dublin (or possibly Plan B if I could get a job there before needing to rely on PILs).

Just turned on LBC to Farage

Is it just me or the political debate is actually getting worse by the week? See John Humprys's suggestion that Ireland could do us a favour and leave the EU to solve Brexit or the martial law suggestion.
FFS where are we going to end up by this time next week??

Thank you for the round up, Redtoothbrush - informative as ever. there's a very good Opinion piece in the Gaurdian this morning about the extent to which the Britain ahs failed to understand Europe. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/27/britons-do-not-grasp-the-eu-essential-motivation-a-quest-for-the-quiet-life

Sadly I share the view of others that if/when Brexit goes badly, the Brexiteers will blame it on the EU and the Remainers. I've already seen the argument that The EU isholding out and being difficult because the Remainers (whoever they are) are priming it to do so. It will ALWAYS be someone else's fault.

Elements, DH had a FIRM job offer of work in the EU on FRIDAY.

He turned it down in favour of another new job. Partly cos he is happy in the UK and partly because there are some complex politics involved with him taking the job which he wasn't keen on dealing with.

It's unlikely he would have been able to start the EU job before 29th March anyway though. Even if we could go that quick the no deal implications for workers in the EU are incredibly uncertain at present. We could move only to find he can't work for some reason and be forced to return to the UK anyway.

The job offer seems to be somewhat open ended, so it's a potential backup plan. The words 'travel ban' were amongst the ones I don't like hearing in the newspaper though for this reason.

I am left wondering whether he has made a huge error of judgement. The new job is much better hours and closer to home, and still pretty secure (but perhaps less so than his current one). And it's not in central Manchester which is a big plus.

The thing is there is a risk involved in any option we currently have and the uncertainty of knowing where this is all headed makes it incredibly difficult to know exactly what to do.

All his comments about how I was hysterical, have evaporated though, and he's no longer questioning some of the things I've been saying for months.

We've just had a quick trip to the supermarket for bread and milk, and I didn't broach the subject of 'forward purchasing' whilst there, which I possibly should have done. I'm not ready to have that discussion with him yet. Instead, I think I will continue to do my shopping expeditions on days when he's away or at least very busy and working late so does not notice what is coming into the house. It's just makes my life easier.

That Murrison rubbish has to be voted down, it's vital against a no deal.

PMK

For anyone planning to move to Dublin check out rents first. There is a shortage of rental accommodation in Dublin at the moment. Fine if you have a good job but housing benefit falls way short of actual rental costs and a lot of the people in homeless accommodation are newly arrived in Ireland.
Homeless accommodation could be one hotel room for a family for 2 years.

Who else finds themselves wondering what must be going on behind the scenes, if this much shit is being stirred in the public arena ?

Bearing in mind there's usually a huge disconnect between politicians (the bits you get in the press) and the bureaucrats who actually run the machine ...

I'm imagining US military sources being less than impressed that one of their allies is considering imposing martial law (what would that mean for any US service personnel here ?) so the behind-the-scenes conversations must be ... charged

I wonder what Her Madge thinks ... two days after she appeals for "common ground", she's opening a red box with details of martial law, rules of engagement and projected and acceptable casualties (probably in the hundreds right now).

Being a practical and slightly inappropriate sort of thinker, I wonder what bullets the army will be issued with ? Civilian police tend to use dum-dum rounds to protect bystanders (not so good for the target). However in a military setting, less care is afforded to people who might be in the area (probably up to no good anyway, so no real harm done).

I didn't realise the Bloody Sunday inquiry had decided on a re-enactment

Maybe selling off those water cannon was a tad premature ?

I'd love to know if anyone is close to a serving member of the forces, whether they would be prepared to open fire on the mainland UK, against unarmed civilians ? And when I say "unarmed" I mean "not in possession of firearms". Someone waving a table leg might be fair game for the police, but against a high power SLR ?

I think it might be Sunday .

Place marking with a surreal pickup from the last thread
I wonder if a certain well known Mumsnetter regrets selling this
www.privateislandsonline.com/central-america/panama/platanal-island1
and I am pretty certain that is the exact island as it was mentioned in the really old daily fail article about her