Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Also to see Labour's number of seats decrease?

Asa Bennett @ asabenn
Tory ERG MP explains to me why they're wary of the Brady backstop amendment: "It doesn’t deal with what we will be potentially endorsing. “Alternative arrangements” could be a rebadged backstop."

Hmmmm...

Would there be anything positive in a general election being called?

Let me know if you think of any...

dad NO, May didn't promise she would resign before the next GE

• just that she wouldn't lead the Tories into a 2022 GE

During the tory leadership challenge last month, she refused to say when she would quit,
but gave the impression she would stay at least until after Brexit, even if this was after an A50 extension and / or a GE

Well, Corbyn says he wants to remain in the Custom Union, and EU would agree to that, so by his measure it would be a better deal.

You know, if the hard Brexiters "cancelled" Brexit they could avoid all the pain it brings and having to explain that whilst being able again to throw stones at the glasshouse and live in outrage. It's a win/win for them!

'The way for the ERG to win is to cancel Brexit'

That's too devious for me.

BigChoc - OK, I'd forgotten that distinction. Even so, surely if she called a GE now, her leadership would be so undermined that she would be under great pressure to step aside?

A50 - Article 50
B Day - Brexit Day (currently 29th March)
BINO - 'Brexit in Name Only'
CU - customs union
DM - Daily Mail
ERG - European Research Group (name of group of c.86/87 hard Brexiteer Tories)
FT - Financial Times
HoC - House of Commons
HoL - House of Lords
NDA - Non Disclosure Agreement (legal agreement put in place to prevent certain people/companies from sharing specified information)
PMK - place marking on the thread (which somehow became plaice mat king and sometimes plaice cat king)
SM - single market
WA - Withdrawal Agreement
WTO - world trade organisation

PV - People's Vote

NI - Northern Ireland
ROI - Republic of Ireland
GFA - the Good Friday Agreement (AKA Belfast agreement) Which has been in place in NI for 20 years.
rUK - Rest of UK - often used to mean UK aside from NI, so as a synonym for Great Britain.
rEU - Rest of EU
EU27 - the EU without the UK

ECJ - European Court of Justice
HRA - Human Rights Act

PD - Political Declaration (the non binding future relationship wish list for the EU and UK going forward)

TM/PM/Treeza - Theresa May/Prime Minister
Chuck - Prince Charles
Brenda(?)/Her Madge - Queen Elizabeth I/II
BoJo - Boris Johnson
JRM - Jacob Rees Mogg (Smug)

RTB/Red - RedToothBrush, OP of these threads
DGR - DGRossetti a frequent poster
BCF - BigChocFrenzy another frequent poster

That list is starting to read like a cast of Jilly Cooper characters...

There's also the Council of Europe, the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and the European Council. Only a mad person would abbreviate those.

Maybe some more inspirational 'mood music'.

Well, Corbyn says he wants to remain in the Custom Union, and EU would agree to that, so by his measure it would be a better deal.

He says he wants to be in a customs union and one which has frictionless trade and no FoM unless you are English (OK, I made the last one up )

He's after just as much everlasting cake as May and some of the Conservatives - just a different flavour

I can't see the point of a GE, other than to gain a short-term extension, but surely after the election we'll be in the exact same mess we are now?

Don't see the point of a Citizens' Assembly either. If even MPs are clueless about Brexit, are average citizens going to be any better informed? And even if they are, why would TM pay any attention to their recommendation? She's not likely to take any advice which would split the Tories (i.e. any sensible option) so why bother?

Robert Peston@peston
Why Tory Brexiters see the Brady amendment calling for the backstop to be dumped as “bait and switch” - or a seductive con - on behalf of @theresa_may

m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2265385997119466/

The ERG trust May that little.

I THINK Murrison II failing and Cooper-Boles succeeding is the best result tomorrow.

Murrison II and Cooper-Boles both succeeding scares me. And both failing also is troubling as it means we really are at full on stalemate.

But Cooper-Boles passing is also dubious right now.

I do consider Murrison II failing as a relief though.

apileofballyhoo - rUK isn't a synonym for Great Britain. Scottish indy supporters also use it to denote the UK minus Scotland (which may or may not include NI - depends on when Ireland re-unites/Scotland re-achieves its independence [win]).

BCF has defined it nicely in her OP on the Westministender Abbreviations thread.

Thanks Grinchley ...
*
*
The adaption is starting to come to me...

Gove lay in a somnolent posture
With the side of his face on the bars
Now Leavers 'ad 'eard about Tories-
'Ow they was ferocious and wild;
To see them lyin' so glibly
Just didn't seem right to the child

red Nothing positive in a GE for the country as a whole, but for different group / individuals:

• Brexit Ultras get to waste 5 more weeks and run down the clock almost to No deal

• May gets 5 weeks without pesky Parliament trying to represent the interests of their consituents

• She probably hopes to win a comfy outright majority and no more threatening phone calls from Arlene

• Corbyn gets his face on the telly, people pay attention to him - but probably won't sing his name again unless its with "Oh, useless fucker"

• Boris gets his face in the papers again, writes the same artcles and earns more for his divorce settlement

• JRM gets to campaign again with his nanny driving

@1tisILeClerc

Albert and his horses head handle was a regular feature of childhood car journeys.

I would love a Brexit twist, especially as it was played by my DStep-F who is a hard Brexiteer, Trump loving 50's (possibly Victorian) throwback.

dad No way the Tories would have yet another leadership Confidence vote and she won't budge on her own
Even if they pushed her under a bus, it would be suicidal to run a leadership contest with a GE going on.
Don't expect the EU to grant an extension just because Uk politics has gone even barmier

So, any GE would 100% be with her leading

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but I was wryly amused by a R4 interview with Joe Haines and Bernard Donoughue, two prominent members of Harold wilson's "kitchen cabinet". They talked about what Wilson (known as an arch fixer and manipulator) would have done and what advice they would offer now. their suggestion was for May to promise Corbyn that if he (and his party)supported her WA, she would call a General Election - thus ensuring that they would both get what they claim to want. They went on to say - with, I'm sure intentional sarcasm, that this would then allow Theresa May to stand down with "some honour" and take her well deserved rest!

APlie
Charles' nickname is Brian .... both it and Brenda come from Private Eye

So someone has found out how to write a plausible manifesto?
Very funny, I don’t think so. Maybe they’ve also found an underground Magic Money Mine to pay for an election, seeing as their regular donors are fed up. Didn’t Sainsbury’s donate to the Tories in days gone by?

'If you think I'm going to raise kids to feed lions'.

Prettybird It was me who wrote NI/rUK=GB which is just being quoted by others I think; not their error but mine not to include the Scottish example etc...

depends on when Ireland re-unites/Scotland re-achieves its independence
Let's face it, whichever of us leaves first will result in the other following pretty sharpish afterwards. I used to think it would be you leading us out, but since Brexit I'm not sure... and if no-deal we'll be racing each other to it.

Just reading that last line I could hear the recording so here it is

I do think if both Murrison and Cooper-Boles fail, a GE starts to get attractive to May. If she can find enough donors...