Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

{It's possible that, by looking for an overarching masterplan, you might be crediting Brexiteers with rather too much strategic intelligence}
For the majority I would agree but there are too many 'minor but important' things going on. Novichok appearing in Salisbury twice just to 'prime the panic' experiments with social media manipulation and so on.
Mrs May suppressing investigations into electoral mis spending and so on. Philip and Theresa have plenty of money to retire to Switzerland to conclude their days so unless megalomania and world domination is one of the symptoms of the menopause why is she doing this?

Yep, the lack of evidence of long term planning always makes these projections of why fail.

However, if Trump succeeds in breaking NATO he will need a European base. The EU will need to work together to maintain resistance to Russia. China after rapid expansion seem happy to sit back a bit and consolidate, plus they already own an impressive number of ports world wide.

Eep, i've gone all dystopian again, apols.

Just an update to my leaver friend's evolution: Last night she informed me the LBC radio debate yesterday with Farage showed that they knew EXACTLY what they voted for. How? Because the remain pamphlet clearly spelled out what would happen if we left CU or SM. Honestly, that's the best they've got against the footage of them all saying the opposite at various times in the ref! So, the blame game is still strong in that one.

Trying to not laugh I suggested that seeing as it's likely heading for No Deal we would be better discussing how to rectify the situation we will find ourselves in after B.Day. She didn't seem to want to engage on this and instead went on about how France + Germany would fail ... I said, well nowt to do with us now. Did you hear about Martial Law, perchance? What, that's not going to happen, that happened in Nazi Germany you know! Back to rant about the war.

After that she mentioned her brother's partner had forgotten to apply for settled status (French). I suggested that perhaps she might want to reconsider options given the bill on EU rights going through today (BUT THEY ARE ENSHRINED IN OUR OWN LAWS NOW!) at which she seemed to let slip that she had discovered she can emigrate to Ireland if it all does go wrong, which is unlikely obvs, but an option for ALL of us .

So despite her apparently knowingly voting to drop out with no deal, she has been patriotically checking out other pastures.

I fear for you Ireland . I suspect you will have an influx of far right goady middle class wankers turning up once they've had enough of slumming it.

The HoC has been too 'comfortable' for too long, there has been no real 'fight' for many years. A state of mediocrity where MPs can call for improvements for constituents, something might happen and if it doesn't they simply say 'Computer says no', and it largely drops out of discussions.
The government handing the responsibility of 'budget cuts' to local councils, just adding a 'buffer' between the public and government so you blame your council for public service cuts, not anyone in the government.

Sorry for mass posts (I don't get out much!) but if anyone wants a truly horrifying experience check out Conservative Politics Today on fb (American). Leaver friend is now posting from it about how A Fetus Is A Human Being - Every Life Is Precious. A scary look into our future politics I fear.

Boles is voting for Murrison II / Brady amendment?!
As well as Cooper-Boles?
Heard it all now. That's insane

Boles always strikes me as someone who thinks we can leave the EU and by adopting his master plan, still have exactly what we've got now......minus any of the downsides.

Tinfoil time. I reckon Russia WANTS Global warming. A reduced Arctic, and a thawed Siberia, plenty of new virgin land for extraction and farming and sea access. No downsides.
So, just when we need international unity, here's a plan to hobble nd distract the traditional world leaders.
And there are a few key guys all ready to throw their weight into this because asset stripping ala 90's Russia is a boat they don't want to miss again.

Apologies for opening the dystopian rabbit hole.

Has anyone got sensible long term advantages?

@LonelyandTiredandLow , that kind of position has been mainstream US conservative view for ages.
I'm old. I'm also a Catholic (a pro-choice one). The fashion for this conservative position ebbs and flows. It's a rare pro Choice person on the American republican side but they are there. Doesn't mean it gets mainstream over here.

bellini I just see that we are sucking up US policy ideology rather rapidly. The white male is needing his pound of flesh.

We had pickets along our high street against abortion last year (well known tourist town in SE). Huge billboards with dead babies and fake blood...on our highstreet. My friend had just had a miscarriage and her 6 year old who saw the pictures somehow got the idea that her mummy had killed her sibling. I won't ever forget that.

Thanks for the knowledge as always!

Speaking of which, I listen to a fair amount of LBC and as some of the last posts have said, Brexit is a kool-aid drinking cult, thinking has just disappeared! I could understand logical or even feasible talking points arguments even if I disagreed with them but WTF.

I just wanted to post this short vid as an example of the cult, I just came across it and... sigh.

twitter.com/ofocbrexit/status/1089586660470345731?s=21

And I’m someone who hugely sympathises with people who voted leave not realising that it was austerity/Tories/poor govt affecting their life chances.

bellini and BCF sadly my neighbour is one of those people who seem quite nice but are totally oblivious to anything happening outside their immediate sphere. They have managed to fall out with half the street because of self centered parking behaviour, we are about the only ones still on speaking terms.

Her DP is also an EU national. I daren't ask NDN but asked another EU friend how she might be affected by Brexit, and she said she had made no plans at all because the government wouldn't let anything bad happen.

I wish I had such trust in our politicians

It's ghastly. But there is a push back against the people who try to encroach on this.
I'm so sorry for your friend.

A busy morning!

More food bank bins in place locally.

I've also managed to blag another store unit.

Still no word from Trussell trust on brexit planning so I'm going ahead and doing what I think best.

The food security thing is worrying me.

I've added a Primus stove to my supplies.

Fuck it.

{ Destiel Mon 28-Jan-19 10:25:36
A busy morning!
More food bank bins in place locally.
I've also managed to blag another store unit.}

Well done
Remember the saying about first aid, make sure you are safe yourself.
In an 'accident' situation, the worst is to have 2 'injured' for the trained medics to sort out.

Arj Singh @singharj
Tory hard Brexiteers in the ERG still undecided on whether to back the Brady/Murrison amendment(s) on time limiting or scrapping the backstop. Needs their support to become a workable strategy for No10.

As it stands at this exact moment, it looks a lot like both Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles are struggling for numbers.

If thats the case, we will have moved precisely nowhere since the first vote.

If thats the case, we will have moved precisely nowhere since the first vote.

That's not true.

We're 13 days into the future.

Here's some help for any MP wanting to remove the backstop- YOU CAN'T IF YOU WANT AN ORDERLY WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EU.

Does shouting help you understand because you don't seem to have got it yet?

Destiel

Still no word from Trussell trust on brexit planning so I'm going ahead and doing what I think best.

I've been banging on about this at our foodbank meetings for the past 6 months (decline in donations, security of our warehouse - well, Portakabin), but have also heard nothing from Trussell Trust, apart from "we're on top of it" (whatever that means).

We've got a Trustee's meeting next week and I'll raise it again. I got the feeling last time that I'm seen as a bit of a one-issue nutter.

I'd have thought that Trussell Trust more than any other organisation would be making plans, but apparently not.

I was listening to the Today programme earlier in the car radio - the presenter, I don't know who, was interviewing some important Irish man. "But can't you be flexible", the Irishman was asked. He was having none of it, 'You've had two years to say what you want'.

As for going back and amending the WA - that's the agreement, why can't they get it into their thick skulls that more negotiation on it, isn't on the table?

We've got a trustees meeting next month.

I shall raise it. Again.

alternatively, joining the dots ...

how long after martial law, before elections are suspended ?

I can guarantee that thought is crackling through some of the more extreme Brexiteers if that's not a tautology (sorry, Brexiteers, that's another trip to the dictionary ... not that words you don't understand bother you overly).

JRM hinted that's in play now, and the loop of madness is complete.

We can't hold any elections in case the public votes against us which would be profoundly (do people like my choice of word there ) profoundly undemocratic

I wonder if any Westminstenders have spotted the odd tweet in the wild to confirm this ?

Of course some of the people mentioned on this thread would applaud that.

leclerc don't worry. I won't be putting myself in harms way.

But our stores are full due to the Xmas donations and people know that

I'm more concerned with what we do if we get unprecedented demand...I've no idea how we'd cope.

As for going back and amending the WA - that's the agreement, why can't they get it into their thick skulls that more negotiation on it, isn't on the table?

Because they don't want to pass the WA.

This is all building the scaffolding to be able to haul the biggest fig leaf you have ever seen reading Nasty EU ! Nasty man ! over the real cause of "Tory party incompetence"