Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

I'm a bit cynical about the sun article...

Also seems entirely plausible that the cons should spend 50 billion but they decided 5 billion...

I need coffee and an optimistic hat on

Pushing hard on her other side, the ones I hope will convince her to woman up:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbac6880-2283-11e9-8d35-0e32f390087a

Conservatives who backed Theresa May’s Brexit plan when it was heavily defeated this month are preparing to abandon her and push for a softer agreement if parliament blocks a no-deal exit tomorrow.

MPs who are loyal at present to the prime minister will get behind alternative plans for leaving the European Union if a proposal by the former Labour cabinet minister Yvette Cooper results in a delay to the withdrawal date.

One MP who voted for the deal two weeks ago said that they could not afford to wait for Mrs May to try to secure more concessions on the Irish backstop before mobilising behind a softer Brexit.

“How long do we have to wait?
People on the moderate and center wing of the party are not going to wait until mid-March.”

Also, a very good roundup of what all the opposing sides plan:

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-into-the-endgame-bradys-bunch-vs-coopers-troopers-scoop-mays-next-move/

which says it would be tough to pass the Brady amendment, as Tory Remainers would vote against and there would be little Labour support

but has a "scoop" that May plans to rewrite the WA to basically require approval by Stormont for the backup to be activated

They don't seem very clever. The backstop was agreed to about 13 months or more ago.

The WA covers how you get out of it, by mutual agreement. Can't be unilateral (for either side) or it wouldn't be a backstop.

They (EU) invited us to study best practise around the world and work towards the most advanced invisible border. We don't seem to have run with that idea.

Hard right Brexiters don't do genuine research, which is hard work, takes years - and takes talent to do

Had a chat yesterday with one of my neighbours who is selling her house. Not many viewings and she doesn't want to drop the price.

Ah well says I there's so much uncertainty at the moment because of Brexit.

She rants " I don't know why that should make any difference, it might make a few of the big companies go under, but it won't affect normal people like us"

Um

She has her own business too. A beauty salon.

The best I can say @MissWilmottsGhost is that your neighbour is stressed by selling her house (my sibling is trying to as well). Or she's a fucking idiot.

Just seen on twitter that Nick Boles is supporting the Brady amendment. . Have no idea what this means for his and Yvette Cooper's amendment.

Just listened to Graham Brady on BBC Breakfast, saying that voting for the amendment to withdraw/change the backstop agreement in the WA will "send a strong message to Brussels"

Yes, it will indeed send a strong message.

.....that UK politicians are prepared to leave the EU with No Deal
.....that UK politicians have cloth ears
.....that UK politicians are numpties

Wow! I wonder what madness today will bring? I'm off to read the cupboard thread for some light entertainment

That article about the US hard right is very true and holds for the UK too, but to a much lesser extent:

Even though the conservatives parties in both countries have won most of the elections over the last few decades,
there is a growing refusal by the US right in particular to tolerate it when the (so-called) left win elections.

They - like the UK Tory right with Brexit - want to change their country permanently, so that it cannot be changed back even if the left manage to win an election through - in the US - gross violations of voters rights and gerrymandering of Congress

Hence the demonisation of Obama right from the start;
his 8 years galvanised the hate and made it mainstream conservatism

The US is more extreme, because demographics mean that the white population on which they depend would become a minority within 30 years,
so the wealthy are desperate for a way to fix their privilege in perpetuity and totally unscrupulous in the means the use.

Couldn't agree more @prettybird . There are fucking idiots inside and outside Parliament who think there is an alternative to the backstop.

This answers my puzzlement earlier about why much worse deprivation in the 1920s & 1930s didn't lead in the US to proportionately more support for fascism:

it was because then, both parties firmly supported democracy and neither to any extent allowed members to whip up extremism

Now, much of the US republican party leadership regard batshit extremism as an acceptable tactic in order to retain power & increase their personal wealth even further

as do an increasingly influential minority in the Uk Tory party

MissWilmott Your neighbour is part of an increasingly large number in the country who have no fucking idea what makes a modern industrialised country and its economy - and what keeps it running

I'm still not getting a 'bigger picture' here.
Apart from relatively few making massive gains from disaster capitalist tactics what might the plans for the UK after the implosion be?
It is OK to suggest the capitalists having gained massively can buy up failing companies but why would they do that, as the 'brain drain' of those who could run/staff the companies will have destroyed the capability unless the intention is to turn them into deregulated 'sweatshops'. Even this is not much of a flyer as an idea because to sell outside the UK the certifications etc and tariffs would need to be retained.
If the results of the collapse were to result in the UK turning to civil war, what purpose would it have for anyone? If you look at African and other countries that have turned into violent 'war zones', they are plundered for mineral wealth, using draconian security measures so that sales of minerals etc are relatively unimpeded. The UK doesn't have sufficient raw materials to make this a viable option.

I could imagine Argentina having another go for the Falklands while the UK has it's trousers down. To a lesser extend Cyprus although Turkey with 'friends' may be opportunistic but Gibraltar might just be a handy place to store materials as Spain would not intervene militarily unless the proximity to N Africa is relevant.

If I hear one more radio or television report telling me the WA is likely to be approved if the Brady admendment is successful...

MPs and journalists - what’s wrong with them?

(Rhetorical question)

It was very busy in my local supermarket yesterday, at a time when there's normally a lull. I was chatting to a couple of staff and they remarked on it. We decided that the prospect of snow was prompting people to get a few things in (lots of problems last year) and then I mentioned that people might be stockpiling for Brexit. They looked stunned. Brexit? Really? they said.
This is a moderately Leave area. There was no long life milk left on the shelves, few tins of beans or tomatoes and I noticed biscuits were in short supply...

Clerc we have discussed 'What is the point'

Short term the market gamblers and asset strippers make some money. That is one reason but not good enough.

Medium term we become a tax haven.

Long term benefits turn into a rabbit hole experience.
What is special about UK - we make whisky and are an island state.
What long term issues does the world face - global warming, sea level rises, over population, running out of resources.
Some research shows that in 50 years there will be 3.5 billion refuges on the move.
So....total conspiracy stuff now...
We subdue the population and start guarding our moat. Not everyone can move to New Zealand.

If anyone has better long term benefits, please let me know.

Theresa May ‘privately told Cabinet ministers she will rule out No Deal’

Teresa May tells a lot of people a lot of things that she thinks they want to hear. For the life of me I can't understand why people keep insisting on believing her word. Unless she puts a legal alternative to no deal through parliament so we don't just drop out with no deal her private assurances aren't worth the use of air.

Apart from relatively few making massive gains from disaster capitalist tactics what might the plans for the UK after the implosion be?

It's possible that, by looking for an overarching masterplan, you might be crediting Brexiteers with rather too much strategic intelligence

It's a bit like wondering what (in the popular narrative of events which is probably not true ) the people of Easter Island were thinking and planning as they chopped down the last few trees, tuning their once-lush and fertile home into a barren wasteland, to carve more stone heads. Presumably something along the lines of "Somebody way back in the past said it was a good idea" and "Well, we've started and invested all this effort, can't turn back now" and "The People have spoken" and "Project Fear, you just have to Believe" and "THEY won't let things get too bad" and "It will be FIIIIIIIINNNEE"

Boles is voting for Murrison II / Brady amendment?!

As well as Cooper-Boles?

Heard it all now. That's insane.

Long term benefits are that we are a far right state and attempt to somehow get our empire back, I suspect. I'm sure some of the hardliners actually think that it's only unpatriotic people leaving but the brain drain will take decades to recoup. In the meantime we can ignore all progress and keep chasing our tails on trade deals and telling the rest of the world off when they don't cow-tow to us as an 'independent state'. More us vs. them mentality to divide and conquer. They get to privitise the NHS, decrease workers rights, erode as many human rights as they like and begin some radical social cleansing until we tie in forever with USA, our only "allies" who are on the same page with us on the idea that taking in refugees is repulsive whilst creating them in their droves. Effectively the USA will buy UK. The whole thing has been a swift exercise in giving control to the far right for as long as possible. I honestly can't see us having a GE any time soon, esp if we end up with Martial Law.

I think we really need to focus on why Russia and USA are so keen for this to happen to us.

I think large coorporations are simply very angry at the rights the EU gives workers, privacy over data etc. They want to be able to rig elections and make themselves almost omnipotent. It's 1984.

Look at Cummings and his bizarre obsession with AI "helping people make better choices" without really explaining 'for whom'.

Some disaster capitalists have drunk the koolaid and genuinely believe in this stuff - there is a certainly class of (almost always white, almost always male) right wingers for whom all government is bad. The sort of people who believe in liberty as long as its theirs but not so much when the liberty in question is being claimed by women or black people. The sort of people for whom "socialised" medicine is a crime. These people are by no means confined to the US (there's one that hands around MN who has been posting again recently, Larry something).

Then there are the opportunists who are mainly interested in making a buck and serving the special interests that fund them (a lot of them have links to Tate and Lyle). I think that many of the leave.eu lot are in this group - Arron Banks does not strike me as someone who fundamentally believes in Brexit but as a man with an appetite for a fight who saw some opportunities to grow his business and his public profile and to make powerful friends.

Then there are the true believers, people like Farage and Rees Mogg with a long history in the eurosceptic movement. Mostly very well insulated from any fallout.

Finally political opportunists like Johnson - this group includes some people with large egos and not much room for anything else up top.

I find I agree a lot with your reading of the situation TheElementsSong. I think I would find the idea of nefarious conspiracy more comforting. At least then someone would know what the hell they were doing. Sadly I just think a lot of people are being very stupid, particularly those who think they are being very clever.