Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

@louisecollins If you want a prominent Leave voice, so you can believe the warnings of disaster:

Veteran Leave campaigner R North (comment #200)

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87068#comment-4216339094

"If EU trade collapses and we suffer knock-on effects, < and we don't roll over non-EU deals >
the consequences could be far worse that the BoE indicates

Its basic problem is you cannot model chaos.

And if that is the result of a "no deal" Brexit,
we could end up hoping that Carney's predictions were right."
........

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87116

"when I wrote Flexcit, I devoted minimal space to the WTO option because I thought I didn't need to.

It was so self-evidently flawed that I thought that no sensible person could even think of opting for it.

Yet here we have a bunch of Tories pushing for it, floating their arguments on a raft of lies."

I like that idea too square however I’m betting the SNP doesn’t. I’m sure if that went to a referendum Scotland would vote for that rather than full independence.

Looks like MPs are all over the place in trying to stop a no deal. This is catastrophic and 8 can't see anything but a no deal now.

Thanks for the clarity on Spain/Catalonia/Scotland joining the EU. This is why I need these threads.

So does everyone think that it'll be no deal?

I may be mistaken but I'm sure I read that Poland would veto an extension to A50.

DH voted Leave, he's not concerned in the slightest. I voted Remain but I'm so worried. My anxiety is sky high. Off to check my prepping cupboard now to take my mind off things.

IsobelKarev - it's not surprising you didn't know. The MSM hardly shouts it from the rooftops, preferring instead to publicise the slightest whispers of concern from Spanish politicians - even retired ones . Scotland couldn't possibly survive on its own and would go to the back of the non existent "queue" to join the EU

The problem with the solution discussed in the link from square is that it's predicated upon the idea that Brexit was only every about the UK leaving the EU. When it wasn't.

The best way I can describe what it seems the real situation is, is to use an example from my past which might resonate with some here (it's about relationships - what first got me onto MN )

At Uni, I returned home at holidays, and earned some money helping DF who ran a motor repair workshop. One of my continued grumbles was that we always went in on a Sunday - even though there were no customers.

One Saturday, I mentioned I wanted to go into town (London) on Saturday, but DF said there was "work to do". Carefully I managed to elicit what "work" there was to do, and did it. Every last bit (and then some).

(I'm guessing some might be ahead of me here).

Anyway come Sunday, and DF is all geared up to go. I say there's no need to go. I then list out every "job" that was so important for Sunday and how it had been done. Which really pissed DF off, and, after some lame backpedalling, he was forced to admit that it didn't matter how much work there was - or was not - going in on Sunday was "the rules".

So returning to good ideas to break the deadlock ... I fear they're doomed to failure if they don't deliver what the architects of Brexit wanted. Which never was about the EU directly, but more about their getting control of the UK.

Partners of abusive spouses might recognise the MO here

imo, this means EU now believe No Deal is almost inevitable.
Hence they want an additional year to prep, build infrastructure, train customs staff etc

Ole Ryborg@OleRyborg(Danish TV EU corresp)

EU leaders are expected to insist that any Brexit delay will be of one year
and that UK hold an election to the European Parliament if article 50 is extended.

A 3 month delay because of lack of clarity in UK Brexit politics would not be acceptable to EU27

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/ole-ryborg-brexit-forsinkelse-kan-tvinge-storbritannien-til-afholde-ep-valg

LouiseCollins have you ever considered that the reason there are so few pro-Brexit experts is that the actual evidence suggests that Brexit is not A Good Thing? Balanced reporting does not mean a 50/50 split of opinion - it means reporting the evidence as it presents itself. There just isn't that much in the way of positive prognosis for no-deal Brexit.

And I got told today that I'm being made redundant, so hey-ho what a great day. Fortunately I have a very decent financial buffer in place and they will do everything they can to redeploy, because after 11 years in post in the NHS, I am a very expensive redundancy. I've started jobhunting already and it's not looking too bad - need to get that settled status sorted fast though, in case HMRC don't understand breaks between jobs.

Michel Barnier: Brexit extension would require ‘stable majority in London’

(he's still an optimist !)

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-extension-would-require-stable-majority-in-london/amp/?

"I have the impression that the backstop is not the central issue.
Ultimately, the debate in Britain is about what the future of the UK will look like.
I believe that we can overcome the current difficulties when we discuss that issue together.”

He described the Irish border issue as a “pan-European problem.”

Barnier also reaffirmed the EU’s opposition to a time-limited backstop, as has been demanded by Theresa May:

On "balance"

Sorry to hear that, Pointy 💐
but you sound very well-qualified to get a new job asap

pointythings

pointy that really sucks. Sounds like you have a plan in place - good luck!

prettybird, it's not just MSM - the "Madrid won't let Scotland join in a hurry" argument was used (and went unchallenged) in a HoL debate I watched on the future of the UK union on BBC Parliament. Thankfully, you lot are pretty well informed and even provide references!

Bosscastle - not sure that Poland has explicitly said that it would veto an extension to A50 - but Daniel WhatHisNameWithAPolishSurname has apparently written to the Polish PM asking him to veto an extension (Funny how "foreign intereference" is ok if it's something you want )

The BBC is reporting that, and I quote:

That Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing."

I think they said this came from a treasury source.

I'm having a

'Don't know whether to laugh or cry moment'

Daniel Kawczynski, Conservative (Brexit supporting) MP

That does suck pointy. I hope it leads to something even better - it sounds like you are in a really strong position.

IsobelKarev - the problem with any debates on independence in the HoL is that the SNP on principle do not put anyone forward for peerages

So you'd need to have an informed independent in the chamber.

BigChocFrenzy Thank you for the link to Peter North. I don't agree with him on everything but it's the first rationally argued and thought through "Leave" rationale that I've encountered...so different from those who "knew what they were voting for" and "why don't they just get on with it and get us out?"

Has anyone seen any predictions of numbers supporting the WA and/or any of the amendments?

We had lots of commentators giving their view of numbers in the run up to the last vote but haven't seen much ahead of Tuesday...

pointy 💐

I think I've sort of lost the plot a bit about the 29th and what they're voting on...

Is it just various amendments showing different options (Boles, Cooper, etc)?

My head hurts

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. Interesting, another move from No 10 to show its mind as well as the black door is open to ideas from Brexit critics - they've just announced a consultation to increase protection of rights of new parents going back to work

2. That's promises of environmental protections, these parental rights now, and the EU citizens' fee being scrapped - PM seems eager to show that when MP s go in and explain their positions they might get something out of it but they have a long, long way to go

3. Biggest piece of jigsaw is still to get something new on the backstop - and note, No 10 not expecting anything before the next vote on Tuesday altho EU is clearly doing a less good job than usual as sticking to one line!

4. And importantly, as we reported yday - UK govt insiders now say they recognise they need to look at the withdrawal agreement, rather than just moving words around in the political declaration and behind the scenes EU MIGHT be up for it - more on #brexitcast later

The smell of desperation...

Simon Cox @simonfrcox
GFA = no new barriers between IRL & NI (says IRL, correctly)
GFA = no new barriers between NI & GB (will say NIrls, even DUP - correctly)

So GFA already means no new barriers between London & Dublin.

And that 🐘 ‘s been in the room since before EUref...

Oh.

Ohhhhhhhhhh.....