Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

louise If you want Leave economists, you are pretty much left only with Prof Minford,
(who was one of MrsT's advisors back in the 1980s and supported her deindustialisation policy to eliinate any business that needed govt help, even temporarily)

The Leave campaign strictly control Minford's outings, because he has said many times that
an inevitable result of the hard Brexit that most prominent Leavers advocate
is the "inevitable" destruction of all UK mass manufacturing and the farming / agriculre sector

All that will be left are a few niche businesses and niche organic farms producing food for the wealthy, while the rest enjoy the products of the inustrialised food industry: chlorinated chicken, hormone-ridden beef, rat hair and rat droppings

There are other publications from politiciand like Redwood, Priti Patel & chums, which talk about a "Bonfire of Red Tape"
but they mean a bonfire of workers rights - maternity, disability, holiday pay, unfair dismissal etc - health & safety, environmental rules ...

i.e. anything that benefits ordinary people, but reduces profits of the fat cats

I think more and more that the best outcome (for me personally, selfishly) would be for the UK to split up and Scotland to remain in the EU.

That's unlikely as a done deal ... Theresa May is hellbent on ignoring the will of the people when it suits her, so the UK would be crashing out as a whole. At which point, I would imagine a mad dash for exiting the UK will occur. NI will get first dibs, as they already have a plan. After that (assuming unification of Ireland) Scotland would need to agitate for another IndyRef. In the event that were to pass, I'm sure there would be a lot of goodwill and assistance from the EU in fast tracking a Scottish application for membership. (This time, the currency issue shouldn't be so contentious).

If nothing else, an independent Scotland would solve one growing problem the UK MoD is having - getting people to work at Faslane

theferret.scot/submariners-scottish-independence/

Scotland to remain in the EU

I honestly don't think that is an option - at least not a short/medium term one. Spain has a strong vested interest in not allowing Scotland to join the EU on any kind of fast-track basis as it would set a precedent. So Scotland would have to go through IndyRef2, sort out ceding from the UK and THEN apply for EU membership. If we exit on No Deal or a hard Brexit I really wouldn't blame them. but it would take an awful long time.

NI is a different case because their choice wouldn't be joining as an independent country, it would be becoming part of a united Ireland (not sure what the correct terminology for that would be so sorry if that phrase upsets anyone). That of course assumes RoI want NI.

From a selfish point of view (I'm in North West England) I wouldn't want either to leave. I genuinely believe we are all stronger together and feel more connection to Scotland than London. Obviously I accept that it is up to the residents of those countries to decide.

I'm sure there would be a lot of goodwill and assistance from the EU in fast tracking a Scottish application for membership

I thought that the Spanish government was seriously opposed to that when it was discussed during IndyRef1 because they didn't want to set a precedent that Catalonia might emulate. I might be misremembering though.

The Spanish have re confirmed that as long as Scotland goes through the proper constitutional process , they have no objection to Scotland joining the EU. It's why the Section 30 notice is so important.

The Catalonian situation is different, as apparently the Spanish constitution does not allow any part of it to secede (now, there 's a whole separate debate as to whether that is right or not).

Mother, DG, Isobel, oh, I know, but please let me have my little fantasy...!

I honestly don't think that is an option - at least not a short/medium term one. Spain has a strong vested interest in not allowing Scotland to join the EU on any kind of fast-track basis as it would set a precedent.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu

The Catalonian situation is different, as apparently the Spanish constitution does not allow any part of it to secede

Scotland has always been a separate country within the British Isles, hence the Spanish view. Their problem with Catalan is more akin to having Yorkshire agitating for independence from England ... AFAIK despite it's inhabitants opinions Yorkshire has always been in England. Certainly since 1066.

It’s clear that Ireland will be affected badly by any form of Brexit, but the irony is that it could also benefit, rather in the way the Leave campaign claimed the UK would.
Ireland has a young, well educated, English speaking population. The lack of natural resources and human opportunity that held it back in earlier centuries are not problems in the 21st. It already has burgeoning financial services, tech and pharmaceutical industries. It is a destination for inward investment. It has strong traditional links to the US, Australia and other countries of the Irish diaspora.
And most of all, it’s in the EU, so benefits from EU free trade agreements with much of the rest of the world.

Louise is fully demonstrating the point I made in my question on the Webchat today. These experts do not have a biased opinion either way - their assertions are based on researched fact. If what they are saying lines up more with a seemingly Remain perspective, that is because the facts support it. It is like arguing that somebody has a “gravity bias” because they state that a dropped object will fall to the floor. We do not need a “non-gravity” bias to come in and balance the ‘debate’.
Feelz is different - we are entitled to the feelz on either side. But do not disguise them as equally valid, alternative facts.

Ah Louise...all those pesky facts.

LouiseCollins28 remainers asking the profs Q's about no deal Brexit are looking for facts not opinion!

And on the funding question: a lot of UK funding involves EU money - it doesn't stop it being UK funding! It would be different if the EU had directly provided the funds to complete this work but even here academics provide answers based on their assessment of data.

From what I've heard (my cousin lives in Spain ..) the Spanish governments political position is opposed to Scottish independence, nothing to do with Catalan (they're not happy that the two places get conflated for reasons above) but more simply because their view is it's not the direction of travel for Europe. (Now that's a subject Leavers could and have been engaged on).

All of that said, their diplomatic stance has already been articulated (presumably they're big fans of clarity and certainty). And it's that they would not block an application from an independent Scotland.

Somehow, I suspect France would not be able to do enough to welcome an independent Scotland into the EU. For them, it would be like the Auld days.

All we need now, is a Hollywood film to get the blood up for a renewed run at independence

X post Squareofthehypotpotenuse!

Implying that the ESRC is in some way a minion of the EU is disingenuous to say the least.
esrc.ukri.org/about-us/what-we-do/

Many people don't appreciate that Britain has received massive investment from outside the EU, mainly because it is an English-speaking gateway into the huge EU market^

That has paused since the ref and would stop if we go to No Deal soon, or even a Canada-type hard Brexit later

The Japanese govt in particular has let it be known that it and its multinationals are mightily pissed with Brexit which breaks promises of successive Uk governments going back to MrsT

We can expect in the event of No Deal that not only will they be running down their uk businesses and leaving as soon as their current product cycles have run out,
but also they and other foreign investors will use the international laws protecting some foreign investors to sue the UK govt for billions in losses
Hammond reportedly has allowed for some billions in damages when doing his budget sums.

Ireland, as an English-speaking EU member, is poised to take much of the foreign business that leaves the UK.
So after maybe 2-3 years of serious economic pain, Ireland's economy could rocket

And pesky experts actually supporting the concept of an economy which actually employs people and sharing predictions of a future where that economy is damaged

Minford explicitly does not care about the demise of agriculture and manufacturing. Not quite sure how he thinks the services will supply enough revenue to support the whole of the UK, but I'm sure natural wastage will help I suppose the whole country could become a giant theme park. God knows, if farmers can no longer make a living from farming, what else is going to keep the countryside the countryside?

@louisecollins28, the ESRC is funded by the UK government under the UKRI umbrella.

It does have some collaboration with the EU among many other international research funding blocks, but again the funding and governance is primarily and solely UK government led.

esrc.ukri.org/about-us/governance-and-structure/

The link you posted is only asking for UK based EU grant holders (which would have been applied for under The ERC which is completely independent of UKRI and vice versa) to ensure that the information from those grants is uploaded to the relevant portal.
Probably because the UK govt has promised that in light of Brexit they will honour the funding as UK recipients will fall foul of Horizon 20:20 (EU funding) criteria.

Ummm... or in short, what @borntobequiet said in a single sentence

@Imnotswallowingthat

I didn't miss page 17 but I think their commentary on the front is a bit misleading.

They say there's no significant decline based on project numbers (which is factually correct) however the decline in $ is HUGE.

www.ktvz.com/news/national-world/brexit-fears-prompt-some-to-stockpile-food/987604296

CNN piece with a very small bit of Mumsnet on it.

I like this solution to the whole Scotland/N.Ireland problem:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/semi-brexit-england-wales-leaving-eu-solution

Ireland, as an English-speaking EU member, is poised to take much of the foreign business that leaves the UK.

As someone who can't help but feel shame at some of the actions of England historically, it appeals to my sense of humour that by retaining the English language, Ireland could see it helping them in the world ...

So after maybe 2-3 years of serious economic pain, Ireland's economy could rocket

Maybe less ... the only pain will come from the UK dicking about. And (as we're seeing) international business doesn't have much time for that. It seems that - amazingly - the fact the UK still hasn't got a clue about anything just over 2 months from B-Day has been interpreted negatively by pretty much the rest of the world.

Mark Carney / the Bank of England warned of their No Deal predictions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

• The UK economy could shrink by 8% in 2019 < 1% would be bad >

• ^GDP would take until nearly 2024 to return to current level

• Unemployment would rise to 7.5%^

• ^Inflation would rise to 6.6%

• House prices would fall by 30%^
  commercial property prices collapse by 48%.

• The pound could fall by 25%