Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

PS

I should say I used up my question on that thread (because I was exasperated about a post which perpetuated the ‘bus’ myth about the low level of the EU membership fee).

I was trying to think of a clever question about public responses to legal and non legal immigration and the economic benefits?

Clearly Leavers and undecideds are loitering on the thread so it’s a useful opportunity to disabuse some myths just in case a PV does happen?

Sorry Born I cross posted. We are both always awake at this time I notice.

On the subject of cats I had a courier who refused to deliver a parcel the other day because he had seen my cats through the window! He telephoned me and requested I go outside and close the door to collect the parcel because he was frightened of my pets. It was the day of the WA vote and I wondered if Cat phobia was a strange new omen!

"Extra security" ... "near schools"

This isn't the thread I thought it was, if none of the more historically aware posters don't see the subtle direction that suggestion is pulling in.

"Logjammed lorries ? ... from foreign land ? ... Well, we all know what foreigners are like, eh ?"

All that needs is a B&W educational film with the requisite racial stereotype(s).

To be fair @DGRossetti , strangers en bloc near schools is never a good thing. Forget the furriners, disorderly traffic jams and parents unable to get to school to pick up their kids because of them is also a possible consequence.

What a happened to my nn change!!??

Oh! There it is :)

In theory I think the 2 year degree option is a good thing, especially for those who are returning to learning. Do you disagree with them Mother ?

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/celebrity/henry-hoover-voted-remain-20190123181694

In theory I think the 2 year degree option is a good thing, especially for those who are returning to learning.

Personally I feel that education should really be regarded as lifelong, and something people can dip in and out of at the appropriate times in their careers and lives ... maybe averaging a year in ten ? There are too many people who could not get a degree aged 18-21 who might be able (and even exceed) 28-31.

It's a peculiar notion that your education is all done at 21. But that's what everything is geared to.

I did say in theory because of course the Government is perfectly capable of taking a reasonable idea and completely buggering it up

born brilliant

I luffs my Henry

Some one could ask a question about JRM on the web chat with Jonathan Portes ,Catherine Barnard and Anand Menon today at 11.30.! There haven’t been very many questions so far.

Lots of potential questions that contributors and lurkers here could ask

I've asked about problems with settled status

Perhaps someone could ask about rules for ethical conduct in public life, given yesterday's news about Boris and David Davis taking money from JCB?

I love my Henry too ❤

Perhaps someone could ask about rules for ethical conduct in public life, given yesterday's news about Boris and David Davis taking money from JCB?

Good idea. Let's put some good questions to people who probably know more than the whole of the cabinet put together.

I've used my question up on that thread. I was ranty at an extortionate membership fee (bus) type post! I get so 😡 at the small 'cost' of the EU being used as an excuse for justifying the far, far greater cost of leaving it.

May I ask, who would shut parliament down? I mean can TM do this on her own or would she have to ask the queen for permission? And would this be just to run down the clock?

May can advise the Queen with a couple of members from the privvy Council to shut it down. But she's actually added hours to the parliamentary schedule yesterday so MPs have more time to do parliamentary work. Plus the wisdom after the Canadian parliament was prorogued was that if the governor hadn't approved it the Queen would have refused to get involved. I think that most likely to be right since historically the last time it was done in England it was by Charles 1 and he lost his head over it all.

amp.businessinsider.com/brexit-uk-food-companies-increasingly-scared-about-no-deal-theresa-may-2019-1?__twitter_impression=true
British food and drink industry warns that Theresa May is ignoring their concerns about a 'catastrophic' no-deal Brexit

Project Reality

Why are the Tories ignoring business when it is shouting from the rooftops to stop Brexit? I thought they were meant to be the party of business?

Did someone mention Airbus yesterday ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46984229

bbc.co.uk
Airbus warns of Brexit 'harmful decisions'
2-3 minutes
Airbus A380 wing and tail Image copyright Getty Images
Image caption Airbus makes wings for the A380 and other models in the UK

European planemaker Airbus has warned that it could move wing-building out of the UK in the future if there is a no-deal Brexit.

The firm's chief executive, Tom Enders, said the firm "will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the UK" in the event of no deal.

Mr Enders said it was a "disgrace" that businesses could still not plan for Brexit.

In all, Airbus employs 14,000 people in the UK.

That includes 6,000 jobs at its main wings factory at Broughton in Wales, as well as 3,000 at Filton, near Bristol, where wings are designed and supported.

Mr Enders said: "Please don't listen to the Brexiteers' madness which asserts that, because we have huge plants here, we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong."

He said that while the world's second-largest aerospace group could not "pick up and move our large UK factories to other parts of the world immediately", Airbus could be "forced to redirect future investments in the event of a no-deal Brexit".

"And make no mistake, there are plenty of countries out there who would love to build the wings for Airbus aircraft," he added.

"Brexit is threatening to destroy a century of development based on education, research and human capital."

MPs are putting forward alternative plans to Theresa May's Brexit plan after it was voted down by Parliament last week.

The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March this year.

Why are the Tories ignoring business when it is shouting from the rooftops to stop Brexit? I thought they were meant to be the party of business?

This is a really good question? Have you asked it on the chat kicking off at 11.30 today.

Rant warning- I'm feeling really ranty about many Brexiteers and Leavers today. On the one hand they often say no one understands or listens to them. Yet they are still in the bloody lead and they listen to no one.

With any other winning eg in sport, comes being gracious and reaching out to the losers and listening to them too.

Yet many Leave, and all Brexiteer politicians and posters, still love to diss experts and trade industry specialists. Yet rarely can they produce experts to support their own view. A Mum in DDs class worked for the FT and before the ref organised some debate / press conference thing. She bent over backwards trying to get an economist to come and put a positive view of ditching membership. She couldn't find anyone. It's literally Minford the maverick and that's it. This can be seen on the debate thread.

It's so maddening.No one with expertise supports this fiasco, yet we are bloody doing it. If the electorate voted that we must all cure illnesses with a daily tobacco enema ( which people did previously believe) would we all have to do that against expert advice?

On the 2 year degree options I think these will appeal more to mature students. Numbers of nature students have dropped massively since the introduction of student fees and loans. I can see 2 year options that appeal to mature students wanting to gain a qualification to advance their career such as business or marketing for example being a much more attractive option than a 3 year degree. It would also be more attractive to someone wanting a second degree as they wouldn't need as much hands on time with tutors on the basics.

I think mature students is a big potential market for struggling universities and one that is hugely put off by the fees system. So while I do agree there are reasons to be cautious it could also be a really great thing and help out unis that are being hit hard by changes to the way funding is calculated and potential falling EU student numbers after brexit.