Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

For the booklist:
Laura Ingalls Wilder: The Long Winter
Richard Mabey: Food for Free
Marguerite Patten's: We'll Eat Again Wartime Recipes
Ray Mears: Bushcraft

My opinion re the upsurge in no deal activity on MN: there is some trialling of arguments for a new referendum or a GE going on.

They're not finding MN very fertile territory are they?

Inspired by MissClipson's excellent list and the earlier ones too,there’s actually a book called Hubris: The Tragedy of War in the Twentieth Century by Alistair Horne

From my bookshelf

Nemesis : Agatha Christie

Great Expectations: Dickens

Alice in Wonderland :Lewis Carroll

From google:

The Call of the Wild :Jack London

A Very British Coup: Chris Mullin.

The Coup: John Updike

The Lies That Bind: Kwame Anthony Appiah.

Detecting lies and deceit: Aldert Vrij

Life After Self-Harm: A Guide to the Future Ulrike Schmidt

Demonizing the other : antisemitism, racism and xenophobia:Robert S. Wistrich.

The Little Englander's Handbook: A Xenophobic Guide to Europe and Johnny Foreigner: Oswald Kitchener

Books are both amazing things. So is google.

Oh and finally...

The Turkey That Voted For Christmas by Madeleine Cook and Samara Hardy

Widespread freaking out in the Irish media this morning after the EU said yesterday that no deal equals hard border whether we like it or not.

It's hard not to feel aggrieved that this mess is being foisted upon us by people who didn't give the Irish/Norrhern Irish a second thought when they voted leave.

The upsurge in no deal activity would be consistent with Brexit being a psychological event. Brexit was sold as a concept in the individuals minds eye. It's therefore incredibly personal and embedded into their own personality. Criticism of Brexit is criticism of the person themselves. Thus any talk of revocation is going to spark a certain emotional response which slogans and messages will not cut through. Particularly so if there is a second ref. Indeed a 2nd ref is liable to almost send some crazy. The concept of a PV is born of rational and logic. Yet that's not what people were asked to vote along. They were asked to vote emotionally and on the basis of deep seated hopes and fears. It was weaponised.

See my posts on the no deal thread mentioned above.

The leave vote is an article of faith. You can not question it. You can not deconstruct it.

Indeed the only thing you can do is identify it and lay it bare. And even then most will actively choose to disregard your point because of what Brexit is.

That's the genius of Brexit.

Morning all. I had a day of not reading too much yesterday to have a break from it all.

This morning there's talks of delaying brexit from the ex chancellor.

The border issue is showing people how impossible this all is. The news yesterday made it very clear that brexit equals a hard border.

It's an impossible situation.

Re Irish press today.

How about The Northern Irish assembly should be restored ..and everything put on hold until then. Even if it means a 10 year wait.

After all...If something's is worth having it's worth waiting for?

---

Regarding the bookshelves there should be language diversity. I'm not a German speaker but google just taught me that a German idiom is "Only the most stupid calves would vote for their butchers" ("Nur die dümmsten Kälber wählen ihre Metzger selber").

There's a book by Bertold Brecht the Kälbermarsch ("March of the calves", 1933).

I agree @RedToothBrush , these idiots (no other word for No Dealers) take this personally. No one likes being shown up as a sucker. Which they are.

I think Misti is right that we are seeing/will see trialling of arguments on MN.

Sadly, whatever response we give is useful for them- they can go away and work out counter-arguments.

I also think you are right, Red. The mere mention of a PV will send a lot of people into tail-spin, what with them genuinely experiencing it as an attack on their core being.

In other news, there's an interesting article in The Sun today, claiming that the Conservatives are, finally, hearing back from constituencies who have been doing soft canvassing - and the feedback is worse than they thought.

Contains the immortal line: 'If you look through the window and there are bookshelves, they won't be voting Conservative.'*

Brexit: it's biting them.

*i think I have that right.

Anna Soubrys thread is in Discussions of the Day. I don't recall webchats in DOTD being in that position before.

The leave vote is an article of faith. You can not question it. You can not deconstruct it.

Indeed the only thing you can do is identify it and lay it bare

Very true Red but there are two other things you can maybe do ... not ideal .. but

1. It can be postponed. In stages at first but really permanently. This enables the internal faith element to continue in those for whom it is inextricably linked with self.

1. Alternatively you can gradually encourage that internal faith element to attach to something else? Another name and label with a more positive end goal.

Running Man - Richard Bachman (Stephen King) It's much much better than the stupid film which was rubbish and nothing like the book.

Mario and the Magician by Thomas Mann is pretty accurate about the rise of fascism and how one individual can entrance masses.

www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-01-23/brexit-what-u-k-voters-really-think-about-theresa-may-s-deal?srnd=opinion&__twitter_impression=true
There Actually Is a Brexit Consensus Among U.K. Voters
To find it, don’t ask what they want, but rather what they can live with.

Psychology. It's all about psychology.

Excellent post at 0723 RTB. It is also all a very fine example of cognitive dissonance. (If we pray hard enough the world won't come to an end).
I do agree with the idea that if Brexit gets delayed beyond March 29th it may lead to a softening of attitudes once the deadline has come and gone. Not holding my breath though.

Probably covered but from 14 January...the latest YouGov/ Times voting intention survey was:

39% Conservative (from 41% in previous week's survey)
34% Labour (from 35%).

Liberal Democrats are on 11% (unchanged)

votes for other parties 16% (from 13%).

Next one should be out soon..

Sorry from 17 Jan

I had a look at the no deal threads. Wow! Just wow!

That's what I found interesting, LonelyPlanet. There seems to be a disconnect between the national polls and what activists are experiencing on the ground.

"Just applied for Settled Status, on husband's phone as my android is not 6.0 version. I have been refused! Have lived + worked here 16+ years, married to a Brit. Was told insufficient employment info for 2012-15 but same employer since 05! Pre-settled only."

On my twitter this morning. I'm making a point of monitoring the settled status debacle because it is being very largely ignored in the media and on-line debate.

Pmk

It's the only part of the British political scene which looks alive and dynamic.

On the one hand positive .. but to be a party pooper ...remember 26% of bloody people TWENTY SIX can't distinguish between no deal and no brexit.