To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

Why would anyone want a no deal?

In short, the Dunning-Kruger effect.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123855220000056

The less you know about something, the more likely you are to overestimate your understanding of it.

Given the huge complexity of the network of international agreements between economies, no one is going to be an expert in everything. When it comes to Brexit we all suffer DK to some degree, but the further away you are from direct experience of the areas No Deal will touch, the more likely you are to underestimate the issues No Deal will create.

So people who have had no direct experience of operating under EU regulations are almost certain to underestimate how deeply our trade and services rely on the frictionless borders created by the EU. And people who don't have direct experience of how business is underpinned by legal frameworks won't understand that taking UK out of the EU's legal framework without putting an equivalent one in place means that companies no longer have the contracts in place they rely on to trade, not just with companies within the EU but also with non-EU companies who contracted with them as an EU entity.

(DK also works the other way - people who know a lot about something typically underestimate the gap between their knowledge and others, and are thereby surprised when those with less knowledge make poor judgments)

Clavinova
Your post about DP world would be worth more if there was any evidence that any of the Container ports had the foggiest how to deal with chilled groupage loads.
What works for clothes from China for Next
will not work for peppers from Italy for Morrisons

I checked South Africa;

Brexit will not disrupt trade relations between UK and South Africa

South Africa’s Trade and Industry minister Rob Davies has stated that Brexit will not disrupt trade relations between the UK and SA Davies said the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), of which SA is a part, is close to finalising a deal with the UK to replicate the existing economic partnership agreement which the customs union has with the EU. Sacu is a customs union in Southern Africa which includes SA, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Eswatini (Swaziland)

www.freshplaza.com/article/9055285/brexit-will-not-disrupt-
trade-relations-between-uk-and-south-africa/

Your post about DP world would be worth more if there was any evidence that any of the Container ports had the foggiest how to deal with chilled groupage loads

www.londongateway.com/news-media/news/sh-pratt-group-to-set-up-halo-a-multi-temperature-product-handling-facility-at-d

@goldengummybear - you're right of course. I have recently marked some essays on a poem written by a Catholic living on the Falls Rd during The Troubles. The essays are full of how the poet is under attack from the IRA. Nope.
Intriguingly, when Derry was City of Culture the BBC called it Derry primarily. All coverage of the bomb refers to Londonderry. Anyone know if this is a change in editorial stand point?

Clavinova

The South Africa stuff is great but the entire African continent accounts for just 3 per cent of all UK goods and services exports. By contrast, Europe takes the lion’s share — 54 per cent — of UK trade.

I don't think redandyellow is here to discuss facts. It's patently about the polarisation.

I suspect you’re right, but it does nothing to convince anyone that Leavers have thought this through does it?

Our trading partners in order (2015).
S Africa no 21 on the list.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_United_Kingdom
We do import far more than we export overall, but leaving the EU is unlikely to improve that.

Sorry, no 26.

Why the hell to remoaners CONSTANTLY tell leavers they either a) didn't know what they were voting for or b) state those who say they voted on a No Deal basis are lying!?

Clavinova - have you any examples from countries other than the former (white) Empire?

Probably because Leavers can’t answer the questions they are asked now pink.

Do you want to have a go at commenting on the questions I asked redandyellow?

Mr champagnes profits go down

Not really. The EU WTO tariff rate that the UK is replicating on champagne is €0.32 per litre, about 22p per bottle.

We pay way more (£2.86 per bottle) in UK excise duty.

However, I am fairly relaxed about WTO, as we already trade with some of the biggest and emerging economies/countries in the world, including US, China, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand under WTO.

Not just on WTO we don’t. We have hundreds of bilateral treaties with these countries to ease the trade in goods and services - over 100 with the US alone. Look them up in the EU treaties database.

No Deal seems like the only way to leave. The only way we can untangle ourselves.
It's like Alexander and the Gordian Knot.

No Deal seems like the only way to leave.

You’ll have to forgive those of us who think ‘seems’ is a bit vague when we’re talking about the future of an entire country

The only way we can untangle ourselves.

It’s really not - careful planning is the only way we can untangle ourselves - pulling the plug is not the answer.

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=<iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/tmtAG4RtAp8" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen>

@millyonth - No Deal seems like the only way to leave. The only way we can untangle ourselves.

And how do you suggest the UK does no deal without breaking the terms of the GFA?

{No Deal seems like the only way to leave. The only way we can untangle ourselves.
It's like Alexander and the Gordian Knot.}
It depends really. A 'No Deal' will plunge the UK into a massive pit of uncertainties.
Leaving by signing the WA allows the UK to leave with relative ease over several years.
If you are not interested in eating properly and having medicines etc when you need them for 6 months or probably more, then yes by all means crash out with no deal'
The £19 Billion needs paying either way and good luck doing any trade deals with anyone if you decide to default.

Wanting No Deal is like jumping out of a 10th floor window because you want to go out but the lift's not working.

And how do you suggest the UK does no deal without breaking the terms of the GFA?

This ^, a thousand times over

25% of our power is imported Clavinova. That's why no trade deals at all will mean power brown-outs.

South Africa about 300 billion and Australia 1.3 trillion gross domestic product . EU $20 trillion. Add to that the distance. Getting beans from France, salad from Holland and oranges from Spain is doable. Getting fresh food from Australia is ridiculous, terrible for the environment, expensive and impractical.

And pretty much everyone negotiates as a bloc or within a trading group. Because it's really stupid not to. Unless you're a massive powerhouse like China. Which we aren't.

25% of our power is imported Clavinova. That's why no trade deals at all will mean power brown-outs

I'm just not clear abiut the connection between trade deals and imported power. Can you expand?

{I'm just not clear abiut the connection between trade deals and imported power. Can you expand?}
While I thought it was nearer 10% but anyway, a significant amount of electricity comes undersea from France and other EU countries.
NI gets quite a higher percentage from Ireland I think.
A 'no deal' means tariff for electricity will have to be renegotiated.

Why the hell to remoaners CONSTANTLY tell leavers they either a) didn't know what they were voting for or b) state those who say they voted on a No Deal basis are lying!?

Speaking for myself, because the alternative is to believe Leavers knowingly voted to trash my country.

Depends what you mean by 'tariff'. There's no import tariff on power so that's not an issue. If you mean the cost of the actual electricity, then yes, it'll be outside the EU system and presumably open to negotiation between the generation and distribution companies. I cant see why that would cause power cuts though?

I've just read that we're net importers of 4.5% of our electricity needs.