To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

We haven't been able to reform the CAP from within. It is more likely to be reformed without us as a net-contributer helping to prop the whole thing up.

Misti. Many of us believe that a no deal is the only possible way to leave!

Except a "Trade Unionists Against the EU" is not a non partisan website.

"Bogtrotter et al, your belief that the EU is a totally benign organisation is just an opinion, not a fact! "

Strawman argument, never said that.

"For example thousands of tons of unwanted EU milk powder were dumped in West African countries at a cheaper price than the local cattle farmers could sell their milk driving them out of business. Or the fact that frozen chicken was exported to Africa and sold at rock bottom prices putting local businesses out of businesses."

This may or may not have happened without the CAP, food surpluses have been almost eradicated already. However, what do you think will be different with UK trade deals with African countries?

"We haven't been able to reform the CAP from within. It is more likely to be reformed without us as a net-contributer helping to prop the whole thing up."

Except CAP reform is on the table in the next fudning round, and has been reformed over time with Blair winning concessions.

The African point is an attempt to make an appeal to morality, it doesn't work.

Found it , it was in the boot of the car

Double, Milly

I too don't like the CAP but it is being heavily reformed for this year, budget slashed and more environmental standards introduced.

However, CAP does still seem to damage African farmers, i don't see how leaving will change that, without our contributions, they'll be more cuts & more dumping as eu farmers seek markets further afield.

The big danger here is that we end up in a CU/SM arrangement to protect the NI border, paying in large amounts with zero say........

I would like the UK/EU to start negotiating to stay iN the EU, we could could potentially win some big reforms to FOM and CFP/CAP by this change of tack.

Many of us believe that a no deal is the only possible way to leave!

Whereas in fact, this hubris risks resulting either in no Brexit, or no UK. You "patriots" are a funny lot.

Also, I'm not pretending that the EU is a benign institution, but what you are discussing is another example of a leave voter, voting for their own personal outcomes, not for what was on the ballot, or what will occur.

Thank God, @frumpety . I'm sure there is an excellent and well thought out reason for it being there.
My dd is off with a heavy cold and, for reasons too complicated to explain, I am off work with her. We were both sending "findy" thoughts your way.

Jas The big danger here is that we end up in a CU/SM arrangement to protect the NI border, paying in large amounts with zero say........

I totally agree. That's why I prefer a no deal.

I think the fears regarding the SM/CU are accurate but unfortunately this is the position we are in.

In any trade deal with the EU, US or China we are going to be rule takers anyway, I know this is an issue for leavers but it was always the truth.

I would like the UK/EU to start negotiating to stay iN the EU, we could could potentially win some big reforms to FOM and CFP/CAP by this change of tack.
This is a good idea - but you probably have to be happy to leave with no deal first.

"but you probably have to be happy to leave with no deal first"

Nope. No deal was never discussed as an option prior to the vote.

"{ You don't need trade deals to buy things from other countries.}"
Of course you do. So you buy 'cheap' nappies from China that have harmful chemicals used so that babies bums get ulcers etc. It all needs certifying and checking and a legal framework around it. Leaving the EU with no deal rips it all up.
Why is this so hard to understand?

@1tisILeClerc, as someone who spends so much time 'explaining' to people what trade deals are all about it might be helpful to everyone if you actually do some research and realise that you have some fundamental misunderstandings.

Imagine 'Newland' becoming independent and starting out without any trade deals.

Shortly before independence they publish their WTO schedules and join the WTO. Those schedules describe how they will deal with other WTO members, what tariffs they'll charge for imports, and what conditions have to be met to export each commodity to the newly independent Newland.

Straight away businesses based in other WTO member states can sell goods to businesses based in Newland 'on WTO terms' - the terms which Newland has advised the WTO that they will operate. If it's Newlandish law that your Chinese nappies need to pass certain tests before being allowed in the country then that requirement is notified to the WTO.

No trade deals are required because WTO membership itself provides a legal framework for international trade.

Sometime down the line 'Newland' may want access to export its fish to its former colonial power 'Oldland', which usually operates a strict policy of no fish imports. They do a deal with Oldland so that they can export their fish to Oldland's otherwise-closed market and in return they lower the tariffs charged to Oldland's car manufacturers for cars imported into Newland. The agreement's notified to the WTO and both parties continue their original arrangements with other WTO members.

That's your basic (and very simplistic) trade deal. You can see that it's perfectly possible to trade 'on WTO terms' without any trade deals at all, but you can offer (and receive) more beneficial terms if you enter into preferential arrangements with other countries.

Thank you Fishes. A very good post.

But the UK isn't Newland is it ?

{Bogtrotter et al, your belief that the EU is a totally benign organisation is just an opinion, not a fact! Other people have different opinions. That does not make us stupid.}
Arguing over the CAP is far too spurious. the foreign aid policies are generally unfair, paying 'approved' companies from the UK or whichever, who absorb a significant amount of the 'aid', distorted policies, ex colonial remnants in terms of procedures etc.
Then the fact that China is rapidly becoming the dominant player in many of these countries by 'loaning' their governments vast sums of money and using Chinese made equipment for railway, road and city building projects on a scale WAY beyond the UK or even EU foreign aid funding. New ports, cities, rail and road all around the South China Sea coast and spreading inland. I am not saying that CAP is a detrimental effect, but on the scale of other factors on the lives of Africans and others, it is pretty small.
By voting Leave you have nearly destroyed any possibility of the UK to do anything to really help them. Admittedly it wasn't on the voting paper, but in your wisdom and research had you considered this?

And if it is such a marvellous system, why do no other countries in the world just trade on WTO terms alone ? Why do they join trade blocs ?

{@1tisILeClerc, as someone who spends so much time 'explaining' to people what trade deals are all about it might be helpful to everyone if you actually do some research and realise that you have some fundamental misunderstandings.}

In the grand scheme of things I don't really give a shit about people who are negative and are deliberately making the lives of others worse.
Leavers are doing just that.

Furthermore @1tisILeClerc, if your understanding's correct that my business can't sell goods to a business in the EU in the absence of a trade deal, what do you think all these trucks queuing up at Calais are going to be carrying in the event of a no-deal?

"No trade deals are required because WTO membership itself provides a legal framework for international trade"

Except no country in the world trades only on WTO membership.

However your analogy is flawed because its too simple, and not like the situation that we are in.

fishes the whole problem with Brexit has always been that we are not prepared to give up the bits of membership that we like.

So we’re not prepared to have trade deals with the EU that are worse than they currently are.

But we have to accept that if we want to leave, that’s what has to happen.

{That's your basic (and very simplistic) trade deal. You can see that it's perfectly possible to trade 'on WTO terms' without any trade deals at all,}
That sounds fine and dandy UNTIL you factor in that ALL other countries that trade in that particular product have to be at the negotiating table and can veto your plans.
Welsh farmers selling lamb to Spain, have to negotiate at a table with New Zealand, Australia, and all other countries that export lamb, any of which can object and demand that the tariff is set different to how you would like it.
Your 'simplistic' world has just hit a brick wall.

Except no country in the world trades only on WTO membership.

That wasn't the point I was addressing though, it was whether it's possible to continue to export goods to the EU in the event of no deal.

My analogy wasn't flawed at all though. I was explaining in the simplest terms possible what a trade deal is, as 1tisILeClerc clearly didn't understand. I wasn't trying to imply that all trade deals are that simple.

I can't believe people are saying that leaving without a deal wasn't an option on the ballot paper. Of course it was, it was the other option. There ere no guarantees or promises about deals. In fact, the horror stories published to get people to vote to stay in carried some very stark warnings indeed that this is what it would mean.

No deal is the default implied in 'leave the EU'. Any deal negotiated to soften that process is not a given, was not proposed in the referendum and is a bonus (providing said 'deal' is not a tool designed to keep us in by hook or by crook).

The ignorance, fear and anger displayed on this forum is embarrassing. Thank god you are the vocal minority.