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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

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Icantreachthepretzels · 18/01/2019 00:29

My fear is that Corbyn would leap at the chance of a GE and not think about the consequences if May wins the GE
With any sensible Labour leader I wouldn't be worried
but he shows no signs of having sense

Yes this is my exact fear. I just looked the terms up and in order to get an election she needs 2/3 rds of the house to vote for it - which she doesn't have, even with the DUP and all tories voting with her.

But Corbyn is so bloody stupid.

I would hope there would be uproar if it was clear she was doing it in order to shut down parliament and therefore bring about no deal - and that, even if Corbyn was stupid enough to go for it, both he and TM would face a major rebellion from their back benchers.

It would be a marvellous opportunity for him to further humiliate her and prove how weak she is: if she attempts to call a snap election and he thwarts it.
And I would like to believe that he is so stubborn that he would want a GE from a no confidence deal that he instigated but would not be up for a GE she wanted and on her terms.
But I have no trust that he would do the sensible thing. He would leap at the chance - and we will all pay the price.

A general election can only be called if there is a successful vote of no confidence and 14 days elapse with nobody able to form a government, or if 2/3 of the MP vote for one.

Not quite. She can have an election if 2/3rds of the house vote for it - as per 2017s snap election.

Hence the worry.

SwedishEdith · 18/01/2019 00:30

Re brexit and misogyny - there's an interesting school of thought that brexit is driven by toxic masculinity.

That certainly fits with the finger-jabbing, "We just leave, it's not difficult" type of contributor on bbcqt. And, in the Leave voters I know in RL, mostly.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:31

Remember Fox's wild promises that one second after Brexit midnight, he'd have replications of the EU'S 40 FTAs with 70 other countries ready to go...

Nope, he hasn't delivered

https://amp.ft.com/content/c44581c2-1a75-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21?twitterr_impression=true

Britain has failed to finalise most trade dealss* needed to replace the EU’s 40 existing agreements with leading global economies

and will not be close to doing so when Brexit occurs on March 29, according to an internal Whitehall memorandum.

The memo, compiled by civil servants as part of contingency planning for the UK crashing out of the EU without a formal Brussels divorce agreement,
warned that most of the deals would lapse without a transition period that keeps Britain under the EU umbrella once Brexit occurs.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:32

I fear Corbyn going 'let's take no deal off the table' will have the effect in some quarters of making it seem attractive and something that is just bad for the middle class.

They hate Corbyn and what they think he represents that much.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:37

YouGov
48% of Labour voters think Corbyn should take part in Brexit talks with May
30% who say he should only do so if a No Deal has been ruled out

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:39

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Ex-Tory Cabinet minister: “The problem is everybody is still backing their own horse and thinks it can win.
The PM needs to find a way of shooting a few of those horses”.^

Katerinablum66 · 18/01/2019 00:43

Good radio programme on radio 4 about white working class men being seduced by the far right. Apparently many have mainly lost out to women as the latter have gained more rights and equality, particularly with regard to employment and education.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:43

Authoritarianism is much more attractive to men in general as it sets the 'true natural order' of things back. Everyone knows their place. Some of this is very rose tinted.

One of those things is women in the kitchen looking after babies. Which also fits with Conservative religious and political beliefs.

Then there is the concept of punishment and authority that's shared by those who want the return of the death penalty - which was the single biggest common belief that was shared by leave voters.

It a very reactionary mentality.

But yes its very much a feature of Trump supporters. And hard Brexiteers are much more likely to be that small group who are British trump sympathisers.

However support for Trump in the UK is still quite small and certainly isn't something shared by many leavers.

I think it's wrong to characterise leave voters too generally as being part of that mentally. There is an enormous range of people who supported leave.

It is true to say that there is a faction of leave voters for whom those things are important. It's shown up in numerous different pieces of research.

It's this strong authoritarian strong man ideal.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:44

BREXIT KILLER CONFESSION (😂) No10 admits plans for a second EU referendum that could OVERTURN Brexit have been looked at

also, Lib Dems’ 12 MPs are considering backing the PM’s Brexit deal provided that she holds a PV on it

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8221502/no10-admits-plans-second-eu-referendum/amp/?

DOWNING Street last night admitted for the first time that it has looked into holding a second EU referendum.

A No10 document about how long it would take to organise another nationwide poll that could overturn Brexitit_ emerged during cross-party talks with opposition MPs.^
...
The PM’s embarrassed aides insisted it was only “a very short paper” that had been drawn to inform conversations with rival MPs.
< 😂 Natch >

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:47

The AfD particularly in the East has a core vote of men left behind by better educated / more employable / adaptable women

In the East, they are literally left behind - so many women have left the East for work that some areas there have men outnumbering women by 3 or 4 to 1.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:49

Jim Pickard@pickardje
I'm told Theresa May is getting very cross about cabinet leaks and was very strict at this week's cabinet meeting, saying that cabinet secretary Sir Mark Sedwill has spoken to all permanent secretaries to enforce disclipline

they are all getting particularly irritated about cabinet minister's quotes appearing on Twitter before they have even been voiced around the cabinet table

there was then an awkward silence, with our leaders hanging their head in shame or faux-shame or whatever

eventually....after what seemed like forever...Sajid Javid spoke up, admonishing the feckless leakers for (and this could be paraphrasing) their disgusting behaviour

some other colleagues were surprised by this intervention

A-M-A-Z-I-N-G leak!!!

You can see May turning red in anger just reading it.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:49

The hard right in the UK are all fanatical Brexiters
Most Leavers are NOT of the hard right, obviously, but they are a powerful group within the Leave camp, more so than their numbers

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:52

red Some are "leaking by photo"
Too many visible documents snapped going into No 10 alone, as well as other ministers' offices

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:52

May's revolt

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:52

Corbyn's revolt

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 00:56

Darren McCaffrey@DarrenEuronews

NEW POLL
Remain highest since referendum with 12% GAP

REMAIN - 56%

LEAVE - 44%

Source: @YouGov
taken after Tuesday's defeat for May's deal. #Brexit

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:57

The politics of Brexit is revolting.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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purplecat27 · 18/01/2019 00:58

Wow QT was particularly depressing tonight. I don't think I want a PV anymore, I'm becoming steadily convinced that it wouldn't go the way I want it to. Most of the audience tonight seemed to be behind a no deal Brexit on 29th March, the supposed random people in the street who BBC reporters chat to mostly seem to share that view, as do most of the people tweeting Victoria Derbyshire this morning, and even a few on my Facebook (and many on yours it seems too). I think my view on this has been a little skewed as of course I choose most of the people that I surround myself with, and I suppose I tend to like those people because they're a bit like me, with similar views and interests. I now feel that we may be in the minority and there are a lot more no deal Brexiteers out there than I've cared to imagine.

I'm frightened of what a no deal Brexit could mean, both short and long term. However listening to what's being said in the HoC it looks like a majority of MPs are too, so perhaps all hope isn't lost quite yet.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 00:58

Big Choc unfortunately unless that figure in in the high 60s we retain a big issue.

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Icantreachthepretzels · 18/01/2019 01:03

A No10 document about how long it would take to organise another nationwide poll that could overturn Brexitit_ emerged during cross-party talks with opposition MPs.

David Blunket (who today reluctantly* came out in favour of a people's vote) said a referendum would take 3 weeks to legislate and then 2 and half months for a campaign.

Though obviously they could spin it out much longer if they wanted to.

*he recognises the same lies will be trotted out again and the 'left behinds' would feel this was just more evidence that they weren't being listened to ... but there really doesn't seem to be any other way through the impasse, other than running the clock down.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 01:04

Jim Pickard@pickardje
Liam Fox once said he could replicate our existing 40 trade deals (via EU) with countries like South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey etc by “one second after midnight” at the end of March 2019: now Whitehall estimates hardly any will be ready by then @ft
t.co/1CU2EgDlJf

Oh that's good news if we get no deal and go to WTO terms then...

Westminstenders: Stalemate
Westminstenders: Stalemate
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BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 01:07

red Each of our available our choices would cause big problems Sad

but at least support for Revoke looks to be growing to significantly outweigh Leave support
with presumably another chunk of people who would accept either outcome

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 01:11

The Columnist @sime0nstylites
Over the next week or so I suspect we’ll see anothe big move away from No Deal. I don’t think we’re quite yet at the revocation stage but I think we’ll see a clear statement of intent against.

If we don’t, the anti no deal majority in Parliament will reach 400 or more and people will start to act. Mass resignations from the government. Labour backbench rebellion etc.

The Conservative and Labour front benches would be well advised to get ahead of this. A necessary step is to begin negotiations with the EU are the preconditions for an extension which will be required in most circumstances.

I expect that the principal condition will be an acceptance of the key principles of the WA of which the backstop is the only one that is politically controversial.

I have little doubt that when the choice is starkly presented there will be a very large majority to accept the WA. The post extension debate will be principally about the PD and whether or not there is a second referendum.

Given that the deal, whatever it is, will be light years away from the referendum promises, it makes sense for it to be ratified by a deal versus remain referendum. We have conclusively proven that No Deal is not an option.

This is where we are. Like it or not. Each day that passes costs precious money and political capital. Let’s get on with it. /ends

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RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 01:17

Travel advice for no deal.

www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/wizz-air-no-deal-brexit-passport-valid-uk-warning-renew-expire-a8732171.html?amp&utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
You may need 6 months left on your passport to travel to countries where this wasn't previously an issue.

And one for you particularly if you are in NI or plan to drive to Europe for your summer holiday:

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
... insurers announce to all motorists planning to drive their car in EU including Republic of Ireland to now obtain and pay for a green card from insurer or “you will be breaking the law” because of No Deal Brexit

How much trouble are those both going to cause?

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 01:31

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
Extraordinary moment tonight at the Leave Means Leave rally in central London: former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and Ex-Cabinet minister Esther McVey are about to share a platform with Nigel Farage. #Brexit

This surely is what Theresa May's team are flirting with by considering watering down Brexit: a huge split in the Conservative party.

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