Westminstenders: Stalemate

[RedToothBrush]

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

I think a GE is very likely at some point, but I’m not convinced she’d call it in that scenario. Commons would kick up an almighty fuss if she didn’t extend for it. And she may end up with a hung Parliament.

Anyway I’m off to bed. What will tommorow bring...

Plaice cat king

Listening to Blair on R 4 Today. Set it all out perfectly. Complex issues rendered simple. JH put back in his box. The likes of J H have had an easy ride for their prejudicial reporting due to,the deluded lying incompetent or absent politicians we now have.

With some noble exceptions from all parties who have been listed on here many times.

Going by the Question Time audience, No deal is the most popular choice.

If there was a snap election I think the Tories would win by a large majority. It would mean No Deal by default?
Maybe TM wants to be remembered as the PM who took us out of the EU

Well, that last thread didn't last long!

PMK/OMG/Plaice Catkin

Just listening to bbc question time. So many of the audience are hooping and cheering about the possibility of a no deal egged on by Isobel oakshott ( archbrexiteer). Diane Abbott got a very hard time off the audience, understandable maybe, but their reaction was vicious and the Tory rep got off unscathed

Sorry cross posted darien

So clearly some very sensitive little flowers are lurking on these threads.

Hazard's fascinating post about the link she has observed between our current political situation and a broader tendency to misogyny has been deleted on the previous thread.

Ridiculous.

Katerina
No worries.
These threads move so fast, I can't keep up!

It didn’t seem like a particularly balanced panel on QT this evening. I was grateful for Anand who seemed to be more balanced and clear in his responses - particularly highlighting the difficulties of a No Deal situation.

“They sell us their cars, they’ll be on the phone” made me want to weep. Definitely took me another step away from a PV. Too many people just do not understand how difficult No Deal will be. Parliament and the MSM need to communicate much better about that.

Cannot stand Rory whatshischops. He just confirmed that the PM has no intention of budging on anything.

May can save either the party or the country. That’s where we’re at now.

Lots in that BBQT audience (Leavers, obviously, I mean) conforming to the type hazard was describing on the previous thread.

Re: snap election - due to FTPA doesn't she have to get it voted through parliament? She can't just call it?

Now - I recognise I'm clutching at straws because this would require sense and JC has none but ... couldn't the opposition refuse to give her that election? And she surely can't be banking on DUP support because in essence they would be voting to remove their own power. And in the event that she was calling a GE which would run over the brexit deadline then I think she would even get a pretty serious rebellion from her own backbenchers.

Would there be a majority in the HoC for a soft Brexit? Dropping the FoM red line and staying in the SM?

Would the 202 who voted for the WA still go for that and are there 120 others to go with them?

Potentially Ballyhoo but May won’t relax FOM because it would tear her party in two.

Oakeshotte on that qt - "hope is not a strategy"
Well said that woman.

I've been listening to LBC on my commute for the past couple of days to keep up with what's going on...so about 8 hours of LBC!

I'd say 8/10 people calling in wanted a no deal Brexit (again stacks up with my anecdata of Leavers I know).

A general election can only be called if there is a successful vote of no confidence and 14 days elapse with nobody able to form a government, or if 2/3 of the MP vote for one.

I can't see sufficient tories voting for one, and I think if the government lost a confidence vote you'd risk a coalition of "everyone against No Deal" lasting long enough to revoke / extend A50.

In short, I think that a GE meaning the clock runs down is highly unlikely. About as likely as May revoking of her own accord.

Oakeshott on that qt - "hope is not a strategy"
Well said that woman.

It followed Diane explaining that they shot up 20pts during the last GE so that’s why she wasn’t deterred by a 6 or gap this time.

I don’t rate DA or want a GE but that seemed a fair enough point to me and not just “hope”.

Irrelevant anyway as they won’t get one.

My fear is that Corbyn would leap at the chance of a GE and not think about the consequences if May wins the GE
With any sensible Labour leader I wouldn't be worried
but he shows no signs of having sense.

Now is not the time for a GE.
They need to pull up their big girl pants and work together to sort something out.

I'm not convinced by Labour's assumption that the polls will jump again in another election. There's been a lot of water under the bridge since the last one for a start. And you would assume that people who came round to supporting Corbyn would have carried on doing so, not stopped only to start again as soon as another election is called.

Re brexit and misogyny - there's an interesting school of thought that brexit is driven by toxic masculinity. That men who have never had a chance to fight in a war but were brought up on ww2 stories are trying to create a conflict that's not there. That they see things from an us and them, friend and enemy perspective. Cooperation and compromise is viewed as weak rather than beneficial. A bit like Trump and it not being enough to win, but someone's got to lose and lose badly. See endless hopeful gloating that brexit will cause the collapse of the EU.

I think it was in David Aaronovitch's programme on radio 4 that I heard a suggestion that TM could call an election and call the party's bluff, make them.campaign on.her deal in the manifesto or lose their seats. Would be a hell of a gamble though.

I think JC would go for a GE
It's what he's wanted all along. I doubt they'd get a majority though