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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 16:20

Thanks bigly, lonely, mrsr8. So glad you liked it too (goes away blushing)

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 16:28

I liked it too, QuietRebel.

What a good use for the dark hours of wakefulness: finding the words to say it. For yourself and others.

I do think it helps.

💐

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 16:29

Good poem, rebel
I like how Westministenders can have such cultured threads, with clever & talented women (and a few chaps too)

PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 16:33

The rhubarb crumble is in the oven

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 16:34

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 16:36

That's gonna get deleted isn't it?

I would say i need to learn to shut my mouth but that's how I got my butt disowned so I feel it works well for me Grin

DGRossetti · 19/01/2019 16:37

Oh dear, poetry Grin

since Graves was mentioned (and the "Claudius" books are sublime) I always loved the quasi-mystical idea behind "Lost Acres"

These acres, always again lost
By every new ordnance-survey
And searched for at exhausting cost
Of time and thought, are still away.
They have their paper-substitute —
Intercalation of an inch
At the so-many-thousandth foot:
And no one parish feels the pinch.
But lost they are, despite all care,
And perhaps likely to be bound
Together in a piece somewhere,
A plot of undiscovered ground.
Invisible, they have the spite
To swerve the tautest measuring-chain
And the exact theodolite
Perched every side of them in vain.
Yet, be assured, we have no need
To plot these acres of the mind
With prehistoric fern and reed
And monsters such as heroes find.
Maybe they have their flowers, their birds,
Their trees behind the phantom fence,
But of a substance without words:
To walk there would be loss of sense.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 16:37

Interesting scenario from John Rentoul... but I'm not sure if the votes are there

Also, Yvette Cooper's bill needs wholehearted Labour / Corbyn support plus at least 12 Tory MPs to vote for it

In a bizarre turn of events, Theresa May could get her Brexit deal through after all
– the key lies with Yvette Cooper

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-theresa-may-second-referendum-vote-election-yvette-cooper-a8736216.html?

It could lead to parliament being forced to make a straight choice between Theresa May’s deal and postponing Brexit in order to hold a new referendum.
If that is what happens, I think there would be a small majority for the prime minister’s deal.

The importance of Cooper’s bill is that it changes the default setting in law.

At the moment, if parliament fails to act, the UK will leave the EU on 29 March. Cooper’s bill says that, if a deal has not been approved by 7 March, the government would be required to seek an extension of the Article 50 deadline.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/01/2019 16:38

QuietRebel I have shivers reading your poem.

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 16:39

How...interesting. But, still, mn's compliance in that is odd. Think of the things that are posted about other political parties and/or their members. Thanks for posting the "explanation" but I'm still none the wiser.

Mrsr8 · 19/01/2019 16:39

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 16:40

Well, we've always suspected that there were lurkers and posters on MN who might be ... interesting.

That's awful, Hazaed. Glad you were there for her. Glad you're where you are now.

DGRossetti · 19/01/2019 16:43

Can't source at the moment, but someones thinking ...

Remember that note that the EU could offer to extend A50 without needing the UK to ask.

I wonder if that was put out there as a signal that should the stunt below be attempted, the EU would pause A50 and simply wait for a new parliament to explicitly vote for a no deal ???????? Leaving the UK to have to try to pretend A50 had expired ?

In the same way you don't solve problems caused by a shit referendum by having another referendum, you don't solve a constitutional crisis by provoking another constitutional crisis.

QUOTE

If a General Election is called then Parliament is Dissolved but the Executive continues.

If the new Parliament is unable to meet before 29th March then it can't stop Brexit.

Tory Constituency Parties have already been instructed to get ready for a snap General Election.

So expect a General Election - called by Theresa May !

If that were the case, then, contrary to what was promised, she would be leading the Tories into next Election.

The General Election proceeds on a fixed timetable. If, however, after it was called there were some significant unforeseen event, Polling Day might unfortunately have to be delayed.

Parliament would not be able to do anything about it because it wouldn't exist.

If the Fixed Term Parliaments Act were to be repealed, Parliament could be Dissolved on the whim of the PM.

END QUOTE

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 16:46

hazard If those cryptic remarks refer to UKIP and
their excusing a UKIP official who brutally murdered his wife, expressing equal sympathy for murderer and innocent victim 😡

then I agree:

No other major - or even minor - party has ever afaik allowed an official to excuse serious domestic violence committed by a member
Any other party would immediately have disowned the official and condemned the member convicted.

If they didn't do so, it is reasonable to assume that those disgusting views are shared by the UKIP party hierarchy

and that other crimes of domestic violence that might be committed by UKIP members or officials would be similarly minimised and excused.

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 19/01/2019 16:48

Heard back from MN. My post was reported more than once by MNers who thought it wasn't ok to make generalizations about an approved political party.

Ive seen eleventy billion times posts that say similar to;

The (insert political oarty) are a bunch of cunts

Is that not a generalisation?

Or are things like that not reported...unless you are really really sensitive

(Disclaimer: id report the shit out of a personal attack that said that...but a quote that was obviously exaggerated, meh)

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 16:49

I understand the ethos of this site to be about making life easier for women, especially mothers

Excusing and minimising the murder of a woman by her husband must be anathema to this ethos
and hence I would expect that condemning a UK party for allowing this would be allowed.

DGRossetti · 19/01/2019 16:49

I wonder if they show "Yentl" at UKIP meetings ?

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 19/01/2019 16:51

I wonder if they show "Yentl" at UKIP meetings

Yeah

But not for the right reasons

Somerville · 19/01/2019 16:51

I didn’t see your now deleted post Hazard but HQ’s response doesn’t make much sense. I’ve laid into the DUP often enough on here, including sweeping generalisations. Never been deleted for those that I’ve noticed.

Poetry should accompany every discussion of politics, IMO. Who has some more for us?

DGRossetti · 19/01/2019 16:51

Incidentally, the very clandestine nature of this forum should have indicated to people which way any bias might factor. What with Brexit being a man thing and all*

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 16:52

What's that bigchoc? Another bad egg involved in ukip?

So surprised...Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 16:52

If such posts are deleted,
then the zillion posts stating "Tories are lying evil scum " / "Labout are lying evil scum"
should logically also be deleted

and politics threads will become rather .... threadbare

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 16:54

Somerville I think it might be because it's a) ukip and they are sensitive and b) i was writing from my perspective as a relation to the bad eggs.

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 16:55

{Poor poor ukippers. Did their widdle feewings get hurted???}
Mrsr8, if that is to be added to your maiden speech as an MP it think it might need toning down a bit. It definitely won't do in Brussels.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 16:56

I don't think my posts calling the DUP a fascist party have been removed, although I did justify why I considered this to be the case.

Does this sensitivity only apply to mainly English parties ?

So if I say that I consider UKIP to be a neo-fascist party, will that get deleted ? Hmm
(I can give several justifications for this opinion too)