Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?

[Somewhereovertheroad]

HMRC projects additional Brexit red tape will cost UK businesses £6.5 billion/year. NHS estimates cost of satisfying new visa requirements on behalf of staff at £490 million/year.
*
That's nearly £7 billion in annual Brexit costs, or close to the £9 billion we pay as EU members!*

Why wasn't the homework done so we could have known things like this in advance?

assuming it's true

The problem with a lot of leavers is that it was all based on feeling.

I know quite a few leavers. I had a combination of 'we want to stop all the immigrants' (we live in Cornwall and the immigrant population is microscopic), 'they are coming here taking our jobs' (which would be a thought if the people who said it weren't all retired), 'we pay in more than we get back/more money for the NHS' (except we live in Cornwall and are one of the places that do get more back than we pay in) and the usual 'we want our country back'.

Most of the people saying those to me were either retired people, so a lack of employment etc would not affect them, and people in the lower paid jobs and the types of jobs that are likely to get cut and would be at risk.

I think Ricky Gervais had it right when he said (to paraphase) that people should not have been allowed to vote on such a complex issue in a country that still has to put 'do not drink' on a bottle of bleach.

{ but the EU have no incentive to give us any decent deal. }
The EU doesn't need to make the WA suit the UK, it is the UK that is leaving. The shoe is on the other foot and as with any 'club' non members NEVER get a better deal than members.
Yes the best deal is to remain.
Norway and other countrties in EFTA don't want the UK as it is a smaller organisation with a much reduced range of goods traded and the UK will destroy it.

Nobody but Uk could actually get the Backstop deal. It's a lousy arrangement for EU; means that UK could stay there definitely without paying a penny into customs union membership. EU very motivated to get hell out of it quickly and get a proper deal set up.

Contrary to myth, EU isn't power hungry or wanting to impose on other nations. EU wants enthusiastic members & friendly partners, not hostages.

You are all arguing that we must stay because leaving is very complicated and we will be so much worse off if we leave.

So that gives the EU free reign really to treat member states as badly as they want because they will know that no one can ever leave.

You keep saying that we vote on changes etc but the members of the European Parliament are elected by member states. So if some of those countries suddenly start electing far right MEPs who then start changing the very nature of the EU we can do what? If we revoke A50 and continue how do we stop the other 27 countries deciding that they will punish us and vote against us in everything?

You are all taking the future of the EU on trust. Trust that it will continue in the same style that it currently is. But you cannot guarantee that because you can't guarantee the future political developments of the other EU states. You all talk as though the future with the EU is guaranteed and it isn't.

You are all viewing the future outside the EU pessimistically. Well I view the future of the EU in the same way.

I'm taking No Deal pessimistically because it obviously will be immediately.

And if course I can blame the politicians - the voters haven't been conducting the negotiations, the voters haven't delayed allowing HoC to vote on the deal, the voters aren't now refusing to work together to find a deal that all can agree on.

But what deal could we all agree on? It doesn't matter if politicians work together - we won't get a better deal than the (lame) deal that Parliament has just rejected.

I do think people need to stop passing the buck. Yes, politicians share a lot of the blame, but it's not as though they held guns to people's heads and forced them to vote Leave. Until Leave voters admit that they made a mistake, politicians are going to keep trying to appease them instead of moving forward.

{You are all viewing the future outside the EU pessimistically.}
So what are YOU going to do to replace the industry that will be lost when the UK leaves. It needs to be good employment for say 2 million people.
A blank sheet of paper, jot down how you see the UK progressing.

While there is a tiny possibility of all the EU turning to the far right in umpteen years time, the disaster of Brexit is 73 or however many days away.
Besides, if the EU had turned far right, Britain would not be able to defend itself. In WW2 almost all of Europe, the UK with all it's colonial troops, Russians and Americans were needed to stop Germany.
The UK would be no match for the EU27.

frumpety

Clavinova but if the NHS cannot entice staff from within the EU any longer as a result of Brexit, then of course they would need to look further afield, thus increasing the cost surely?

Not an increase of £490 million!

Have you read my link?
The recruitment costs are based on overseas recruitment figures from 2016/2017 - we already recruit more NHS staff from outside of the EU;

www.rcplondon.ac.uk/news/490-million-question-new-cost-overseas-health-workers-post-brexit

Based on the best system-wide data available, in the year to September 2017, 12,303 EU nationals started work in the NHS and 14,032 staff joined the NHS from outside of the EU

Further breakdown of NHS staff here;
researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7783

The £490 million/year figure is a wildly speculative estimate of total costs (not all of them new costs or Brexit related) and almost half of this figure relates to overseas staff we already recruit.

some of those countries suddenly start electing far right MEPs

They already do. However, the EU is a well structured democracy with checks and balances. It is not like the U.K. one effective chamber, winner takes all system.

We stop extremes taking over by working together and building alliances. The EU is about talking and discussion and looking for similarities not differences.

You seem to think every other country wants further integration, do some research on the Danes, the Poles and the Romanians. There are a group of nations who do not want to push ahead. With the failure (?) of the Euro EU Federalism is on hiatus. Now is the time we should be building a coalition of newer entrants to put the brakes on.

It is not 27 vs 1. We are not the victim of a big bully. Brexiteers always cast themselves and the U.K. as victims.

We are not a victim. We are (well were before Brexit) a well respected nation with strong views who headed the 'slow down less integration' wing of the EU. Other countries looked to us for a lead.

The EU will not 'punish' us if we revoke because they are not toddlers.

Not everyone debates on feelings and makes decisions like a bullying child.

and almost half of this figure relates to overseas staff we already recruit
Non-EU staff we already recruit.

Also - as I keep on saying - the last time Europe elected right wing leaders we did not run away from Europe we ran towards Europe with guns!

If Europe does become more right wing the lesson of 1939 is to stay and fight. Running away and hiding is the very last thing we should do. Running away and hiding is exactly what we didn't do in WW2.

Or WW1, best of 3?

Well, you all have a very high opinion of the EU. Sadly I don't share that opinion.

With the failure (?) of the Euro EU Federalism is on hiatus.

Hhmm. So EU federalism was on the cards. Do tell - what will the fall out be if the euro fails and how can that possibly happen when the future of the EU is so rosy, what with all of the safeguards and good decision making processes?

You are all arguing that we must stay because leaving is very complicated and we will be so much worse off if we leave

The NI/ROI makes leaving complicated and today Phillips have announced a factory closure in Suffolk as production moves to Holland 250 jobs go, they warned that brexit would make them reconsider their investments here.
Ford Euro CEO says Brexit will be disastrous for their UK operations... PSA will be next.

A friend of mine works for Airbus in Toulouse, he thinks 3 to 5 years and all uk production will be gone whatever brexit we have, there will be too much political pressure to have UK factories.

Dublin is having a building and recruitment boom....

So yes, we will be worse off.

Clearly the 'hiatus' comment was my opinion. I wouldn't make a decision to remain or leave based on speculation. My decision was rooted in fact, as I explained earlier.

I am however, happy to hypothesize. The initial EU countries were more keen for a closer union the later countries are not as keen. The U.K. represents the less keen group. A failure of the Euro would mean a more significant realignment of groupings but that would benefit the traditionally sceptical U.K.

Federal does not mean closer union, federal when used politically is a way of structuring an organisation or a country. Federalism ensures power is distributed evenly. The US is a federal system and US states have more power than a devolved Scotland. So a federal system would mean more local power and less central power - that's a good thing surely?

Poor decisions are made in the EU - you are always pushing for an extreme view and most supporters of the EU aren't belligerent and extreme. Poor decisions are made but the EU is structured in a way that these decisions are debated and have to be voted on - several times.

But surely that level of control that the EU has obtained over member states potentially holds states hostage now.

How can any of you argue that is a good thing? If Brexit is revoked and we remain it won't necessarily be because we want to remain but because we are too scared to leave. And that's positive is it?

The US is a federal system and US states have more power than a devolved Scotland.

But the US is a single country. How does that compare with the EU, which is made up of individual countries?

The EU is not a separate 'thing' it's not like an invading space alien. It isn't a ravening beast. It is a group of countries who work together in a democratic system.

We are the EU, are we holding ourself hostage?

The EU controls specific areas and very clearly does not control the vast majority of decision making.

Hostage for what?

And you talk about the failure of the Euro as a positive for the UK - maybe in one sense but what will the fall out be for countries in the Euro? I don't believe for one minute that, despite us not being in the Euro, that we wouldn't be expected to bail out affected countries.

Hostage for what?

Being compelled to remain in the EU, even though they want to leave.

Federalism is about how power is shared, it is about structure it doesn't only apply to countries.

A federal system has limited central power and gives as much power as possible to local decision making. So the US is one country. The U.K. is 4 countries. Yet, due to the federal nature of the US, Maine has more power to control itself than Scotland.

A federal EU would mean central power was limited and as much power as possible remains in the hands of the individual states.

The term has been used by Brexit supporters to imply central power and that is simply not true. The term is misunderstood and then misinterpreted by people in the U.K.

But how can the EU afford to hand more power back to individual countries? If it does that it loses control over the decision making process.

How can you have harmony if all member states follow different laws and policies? What role would the EU have?

Historically how has refusing to help other European countries worked?

The EU is not perfect and the Euro is a prime example of that. There are a number of issues that need to be faced and that may have financial implications.

Caveat - this is all speculation:
An EU country suffering extreme poverty, a financial crash and political turmoil is always going to have an impact on the U.K. The question is do we work to help that neighbour overcome the problem or run away and hide.

Hiding and running doesn't work, history demonstrates that very clearly. When a close neighbour suffers financially and politically it always impacts those nearby. If we are in the EU we are in a position to help. If we Brexit we will still get involved one way or another.

The EU does not want control over all areas of government. It simply doesn't. It wants to federalise - distribute appropriate powers where ever possible.

The EU word for this is subsidiarity - it means making sure as much power as possible remains in the hands of individual states. In fact the U.K.s preference for centralised power (in Westminster) is looked down on by some European states.