Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

I have often said that a small part of me wants the shit to happen, the pain to be felt, as result of a hard/No Deal Brexit, because (in my opinion) that would bring about something sooner that I would personally like: Scottish Independence.

But I always pull back from actively wanting it, as I don't want the harm that would suffered disproportionately by the poorest and most vulnerable - even they did vote for it

I'd rather be patient and accept that Scottish Independence will take longer if we succeed in avoiding Brexit.

But I can relate to Lonelyplanetmum's frustration and her growing belief that we need to go through the hubris, experience nemesis before achieving catharsis.

There is a boil that needs to be lanced which is the British belief (very strong in certain parts of the Establishment but also engrained within English society) of British exceptionalism and "Don't they know who we are?" There are elements who still don't understand that the British Empire is gone,no more, over and the UK can't order other countries around any more

That is not to say that the UK (or its constituent countries) doesn't have good things to offer and that its inhabitants shouldn't be proud.

I'm not policing anyone's thoughts. How would I even do that?

I have expressed concern and frustration at people expressing the view that no deal is in any way worth doing, even if people don't really mean it, because social media is watched and comments used and absorbed so what we say on social media should be considered for how they might be taken.

For the vast majority of active leave supporters, Brexit has come to have a religious fervour that I don't really understand. I'm not sure about how you engage with that, but rational argument and "understanding" don't cut it.

That is only your opinion. When u have tried to have a rational argument are you sure you just wasn't preaching? There's nothing worse than someone speaking down to you. In my young days I remember when anyone spoke down to me I would lapse into full cockney getting rougher and rougher the more they spoke down to me. Its because they tried to judge the book by its cover not bothering to find what lay between the leaves.

I'd rather retain pragmatism rather than unthinking dogma.

Nicola Sturgeonn* @NicolaSturgeon

Historic defeat for the PM and it has been obvious for months that it was coming. Enough time has been wasted. It is time to stop the Article 50 clock and put this issue back to electorate. Scotland voted to remain in the EU and we should not be dragged out against our will.
7:54 pm · 15 Jan 2019 ·

It's not impossible to envisage a future where - thanks to the collapse of what was left of indigenous British business - we see a massive influx of foreign companies and workers needed to keep things going.

Er isn't this exactly what the Thatcher government achieved?

People calling for no-deal are being stupid, unless they don’t care about the future for the north of Ireland and civil war reopening within the UK. I suspect they’re split fairly evenly between the former and latter. Then again I know leavers who don’t want no-deal at all, or not without a special side deal for NI, because of those potential consequences, so I’m not saying all leavers are stupid.

This is an interesting tweet:

Mark @markantro
Behind every remainer is an authoritarian who thinks they know how to live your life better than you do

Procedural Update for the HoC today.

After PMQ there is a 10 min rule bill. After that will be this afternoon's debate which will be about No Confidence in Theresa May. This debate is scheduled to last until 7pm, at which point there will be a vote.

I don't want a no deal. Parliament don't want a no deal. But a no deal may well be on its way. As I said yesterday on the previous thread, I am not frightened because me being frightened won't help my situation. Whatever happens I WILL cope, you WILL cope, all WILL cope. If there was war tomorrow all would cope all would have to to enable you to survive. Am off for a break now.

^ And to clarify on my 10.21 - people who understand the consequences for the GFA and yet want no deal anyway are evil fuckers rather than stupid. That includes members of the cabinet and DUP right through to some in the Sinn Fein leadership, before I’m accused of partisanship. Fuckers, the lot of them. (And I only listen to alternate interpretations of their actions from others who had to jump behind a post box on the way to school to avoid crossfire between a British soldier and IRA gunman.)

I've the Brexit ref taught us anything, it's the power of social media!

A selective "power" at best ...

When the streets of Birmingham aren't awash with litter, when dog owners clean up after their dogs, when petty vandalism is called out and stopped thanks to social media. I might be a bit more upbeat.

I suspect as we learn, we'll discover that contrary to assumptions, social media has actually intensified social disconnection and isolation. World poverty ? Well I did my bit by liking that post. Casual sexism ? Well I must be one of the good guys, I shared a tweet. Racism ? There's a meme for that.

Part of the Zucks recent shenanigans have been put down to a desperate need to hide the fact that Facebook advertising doesn't work.

For all the frothing and tweeting and liking, when you compare and contrast Leavers who took to the streets and Remainers who took to the streets, you get a different picture. I'd be impressed to see 700 Leavers in one place. Let alone the 700,000+ needed to equal the Remain march last year.

For every Arab Spring, you have 10 "You won't believe what people are saying about THIS dress" campaigns.

(The irony is I've setup websites, twitter feeds, Facebook pages and LinkedIn campaigns. But I remain deeply cynical).

Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell
Strategic weakness of Remainers obvious when one asks to what is it that they wish us to remain

He's just tweeted the point I'm trying to make.

Leavers wanted change, leave was sold on the idea of change. Remain is entrenched in the idea of things staying the same. Unless remain offers a new vision as well as staying inside the EU there is a problem.

Think about it.

When u have tried to have a rational argument

On many occasions. I was one of the people on here pro-ref trying ineffectually to fight the tide of disinformation and I am always respectful of people are prepared to talk facts (see the discussion below about immigration with dangermouse).

@DangermousesSidekick sorry to tag you but impossible to converse other ways. Why is the idea of good versus bad immigration dangerous? Well, the starting point is "who decides, and on what basis"? How long are refugees or child immigrants given to prove they are "good immigrants" and what happens if they are later considered to be "bad immigrants"? When deciding who is good and who is bad, what weighting do we give to language, education, earnings, skin colour, religion, cultural "compatibility"? Do you not think that there is a danger here?

That doesn't mean that I believe that all immigration control is dangerous (although exercised by an over mighty and incompetent authority, it can be).

That should read "pre-ref"

@DGRossetti interesting post (and I mean that sincerely, not sarcastically, but despite all that, leave won the referendum, so...

Remain is entrenched in the idea of things staying the same. Unless remain offers a new vision as well as staying inside the EU there is a problem.

I profoundly disagree with this.

Because most of the things that led people to vote to leave were nothing to do with the EU, remain and change are perfectly compatible (as is remain and no change). They are two entirely separate issues that have been conflated by people with a vested interest.

This remainer wants total parliamentary reform. It is not longer fit for purpose.

You don't start to engage with someone who likes brexit by talking about brexit.

You find the grievance first and talk about how you understand and perhaps share that grievance and then talk about ways to resolve that grievance which can then come back and mention brexit but you've already engaged and are acknowledging the problem and trying to come up with alternative solutions...

When I've done it, I've found it really worthwhile. Its hard work and takes time and effort, which a ref and social media do not facilitate.

There IS a lot of common ground to be found.

I have lurked on these threads since they began and occasionally posted about how to listen and not alienate leaver voters under various name changes and have been responded to sometimes quite rudely. Its actually my job to learn how to listen to population groups through various methods and I know quite a lot about this - but actually couldn't be bothered to engage with people because of the slightly hectoring responses. Its not just leavers who are not listening.

This Remainer wants voting reform, in the form of PR.

Quite possibly parliamentary reform, depending on what form it would take.

This is an interesting tweet: Mark @markantro Behind every remainer is an authoritarian who thinks they know how to live your life better than you do

Which would have some point if the referendum was on whether to join the EU, or not. Only it wasn't.

We return to the fact that prior to the referendum, a vast proportion of the electorate simply had no real sense of being in the EU in much the same way that most people have no clue how the electricity, gas and water in their homes gets there. Then one day someone turns up, blathers on about how you might drown in the water whilst being electrocuted with electricity only you'd never notice because you've been blown up in a gas explosion. So you become convinced - obsessed - that you need to rip out your water, electricity and gas and move to a log burner, well, and candles. True, your house is probably a bit more hole-y than before. But at least you acted.

versus:

Do nothing.

I think your analysis is sound RTB but one could also turn the Carswell point around and ask what it is that the Leavers wish us to become, once we have left. Somehow the idea that free trade will make Britain "great again" sounds not merely dated but positively Victorian. But we do need radical change to overcome the sense of alienation (to use a favourite 1970s term). Sadly, I don't see that kind of change coming within the current political system. I'm no spring chicken, but Corbyn and Cable both seem like political dinosaurs to me.

Well said @goldensky

Yet more, the UK needs to leave because as it stands to be of use to the EU it has not to just 'be there' but be very 'pro' on a range of subjects. Being a bit 'meh' is not good enough, it has to stand up to the plate and be a leader (joint!).
Tragically British technology is up with their colleagues across Europe and is among the best in the world. The funding and encouragement for this has been destroyed and there will be heartbreaking decisions being made by families whose jobs will probably be secure only if they move over to the EU.