Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

Red - sorry for getting that wrong

Blame Sky News

Its so weird that you vote your leaders deal down then say you have confidence in her. With teammates like that you certainly don't need enemies.

@Sostenueto completely agree. It's hypocritical to say the least

@ (Donald Tusk)
If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?

That’s a good question. Is it where we are actually heading?

Jeremy Cliffe @ jeremycliffe
Amid the excitement in Westminster it's worth keeping sight of the bigger picture.

1/ Britain's membership of the EU never had much emotional resonance and worked because it lacked domestic political salience (for historical and cultural reasons too extensive to list now).

2/ For decades the really convinced pro- and anti-Europeans - those for whom the EU was about the national character first and transactional pros and cons second - resided closer to the fringes of British politics than to its centre.

3/ But post-Thatcher trauma gave the anti-Europeans a home deep in the Tory party. And New Labour, partly in its quest to escape old ideologies, gave pro-Europeans a foothold in its camp.

4/ There was always an imbalance: pro-Europeans never had the grip on Labour that anti-Europeans had on the Tories.

5/ This fact, the traumas of coalition (a very un-Tory concept) and a big dose of hubris promoted Cameron in 2013 to promise a referendum on EU membership.

6/ Calling the Brexit vote for party internal (but deep-rooted) reasons, Cameron was dishonest about the real trade-offs. He suggested a vote between two political chimeras: an EU whose benefits to Britain depend on unilateral renegotiation and a Brexit bearing certain benefits.

7/ That choice of chimeras has defined events since. Remain and Leave have for years been more symbols than pro-active, long-term, defined policy choices.

8/ In other words, Britain's current mess - which is once more coming to a head tonight in Westminster - is the pile-up of decades of unresolved contradictions and disputes. No wonder it's ugly.

9/ At the heart of the Brexit debacle is a majoritarian political system that trades precision for consensus, but has run out of consensus.

10/10 It will take years, perhaps decades, to fix Brexit and/or the causes of Brexit. Doing so begins with fixing a political system that clearly isn't working and whose flaws have been building up for a long time.

I can't see an SNP/lib dem/Labour alliance. The other parties will only back Corbyn if he agreed to a second ref which he won't do. But TM will still be PM this time next week.

Boris been bonking a lot hence weight loss. Wonder if she shuts her eyes?

Watching sky soft vs hard is back. Do you want a soft brexit? Labour want a soft brexit. I hate it. It's meaningless description. Use actual words to describe what a soft brexit means....but nooo that's to informative and boring.

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Developing:

Theresa May said they want to reach out

BUT

No10 also say their principles include securing an independent trade policy.

🚨I.e. no customs union with the EU, Labour’s main ask before talks even start🚨

(Now principles aren’t red lines but strong early hurdle)

Boris now on Sky News, looking suspiciously slim, as previously noted, with something approaching a normal person's haircut.

Very, very worrying.

Boris still thinks that we can ditch the back stop and still have an implementation period. And he wants to be PM........

Unfortunately I agree with you susan

@DonaldTusk has my vote!

It's like the Emperors New Clothes - no-one is brave and honest enough to say that we've had a look at it but Brexit is a bad idea, it just won't work and we can't do it!

Those who voted against May but vote with her in a confidence motion only do it to keep themselves in power, and not because they have any confidence in her. These so called confidence votes are really anything but

DUP are holding out for a harder Brexit and when they don't get it, their supposed confidence in TM will evaporate.

Suspect that PM's greatest enemies now are her own Tory grandees if she is not toppled tomorrow. And later on when this immediate crisis is over and there is a lull in the storm...they may well pounce.

All that shagging does that for you. Lowers tone of debate

Maybe Boris’s new squeeze (the ex of Mr Harry Cole?) has put him on a diet. Does he have his Sensible Leadership Candidate haircut or does he look like this?

That was re Boris weight loss

Just had an email from Labour asking for a donation to their election campaign.

Is there a 12mo protection period for the government if they gain the confidence of the house?

I think he has a girlfriend @Belindabelle

Did I understand correctly that John Bercow agreed that revoking article 50 and a second referendum would be debated and voted on?

The Uk & Canada had totally different starting positions:

Canada, before negotiating a deal with the EU, still had all its existing trade deals in place, had all its existing international travel agreements, its existing agencies.
The EU, for reasons of geography, is NOt Canada's main trading partner

The UK would be starting from Year Zero, with just one trade deal so far to be signed with Switzerland,
losing the frictionless trade with its nearest trade bloc & main customer, where it sends 55% of its exports
losing the FTAs it shares with the EU for 60-70 non-EU countries
losing the international agreements on flights, shipping, certifications of British airports, staff, goods of every kind

There is no comparison to what Canada did and the UK leaving with No Deal to get a Canada-type FTA

Also, the EU will not even start negotiating until the UK agrees to the 3 main points in the WA:
backstop, expat rights, exit bill !

The UK after No Deal would be in a far weaker negotiating position than during the A50 process, because it will be negotiating
while the economy slides over the cliff,
while many businesses flees
while the wealthy and the mobile mc professionals - who pay so much of the country's income tax - flee too

When has Boris not had a girlfriend?

Delurking to say thank you for these threads!

Also saw this linked last Tuesday on a news site (can't remember which one and took me ages to find again): euexit.campaign.gov.uk

Wondered if the reference to the public site going live Tuesday wasn't this Tuesday but last. If so it's v disappointing re reaching a wider audience - just a 'friendly' landing page, but if you click through the 'individuals' link, it just takes you to a bunch of existing no deal notices.

If that's the case then doesn't seem to have
entered the public consciousness /prompted mass panic...