What happened to the Brexit Arms?

[Miljah]

Have I missed it somewhere?

Or has it disappeared? 18 months ago it was a hot bed of cheering, braying and smug crowing. What went wrong?

Now, 'What the Chuff are we Actually Going To Do?' threads get one, token Brexiteer, isolated, arguing their corner? Slapped down every second ensuing post?

This makes me very worried. It almost makes me thing that the post-Brexit fears of Remainers can't be relied upon as a source of mirth anymore.

So, c'mon! Where are you? Once you've parked 'Project Fear'/'Remoaners'/'We won, you lost, get over it?'/'It'll be fine'

Please tell me you've kept some powder dry!

Please give me hope that at least some of you can post a coherent reply assuring us that this won't be the biggest - to quote Angela- 'shitstorm' in our recent history?

Do you sort of wonder why your cheer-squads went silent?

Does that worry you, too?

{What do you not understand.}
I don't understand where all the 'easiest deals ever' 'manufacturing powerhouse' and all the other slogans that were spouted will come from.
Not one leaver has managed to suggest anything that will replace the Million or so jobs that will be lost when the car assembly industry leaves. Nor has any Leave politician put money on the sable to sort out the NHS and the shortage or investment outside London and the SE. They have has 2 years to DO it but only now are we getting vague promises from Mrs May about some phones so you can call a doctor rather than seeing them for proper treatment.
Yes they have pulled 4000 staff to sort out no deal, because they have 'ballsed up' big time. It of course means the jobs those 4000 were doing, will stop or have to wait.

it won't, it will show that we have no integrity.

And what do you think breaking the GFA by choosing no deal would do?

What do you think reneging on out commitments to pay the EU by choosing no deal will do?

As ever, you only see what you want to see.

No, I see that your speaking pipe dreams, still wanting it your way only.
Not the way it is now.

{ it will show that we have no integrity.}
Integrity and respect is what happens when you examine a problem thoroughly and change your mind if it is f%cking stupid.

And so are you mummmy

You think no deal is the only way.

I disagree.

As I’ve said before, time will prove one of us right.

Not that my crystal ball is great, but I reckon...
Parliament is more afraid of No Deal than they are of WA. If they have to choose, they will choose WA. They have the power. They will decide.

My wishes aren't horses.

Bear you know I have always said it was impossible to please everyone. And no deal is the result of this.

Mummy people were led to believe that voting leave would mean that things would be 'better' for them. Once the results of the vote were in, that changed to better in the future, now we have possibly better in the future, possibly not, but still worth it somehow. That's why the country is still divided on this issue, the 48% who thought staying in the EU at that moment was the best course of action for the UK, haven't been shown any actual benefits to leaving. Not one, now its all yes it will be hard and difficult but it will be worth it in the long run. It's a tricky sell

You know who else used to use the phrase 'my word is my bond', mummmy?

Del Boy Trotter.

I'm afraid the idea that that the UK acts with integrity sailed out of the window 2.5 years ago, and nothing that we (as a country) have done since then has changed that perception.

And as for 4000 staff were pulled to help with No Deal - you don't seem to understand that that was far too little, FAR too late. It's not a good thing! It's an absolute fucking shambles that proves, beyond any doubt, that the UK is not currently capable of dealing with the situation it has got itself into.

You're right though, that it was always going to be impossible to please everybody and that's why we are where we are. But ploughing on with that impossible situation isn't 'integrity', it's utter, utter madness.

Bear you know I have always said it was impossible to please everyone. And no deal is the result of this.
mummy Only a very small number of MPs would support no deal. A lot have come out publicly to say this, including some who have said they would resign rather than vote for no deal. Given how very bad no deal would be for the country, I don't know why you are still championing it as a solution. Anyone would think you'd prefer the country to suffer wholesale damage just so you can be proved right.
I asked you above if no deal was what you had in mind when you went into the polling booth, but notice you didn't answer. You're not obliged to, of course, but I would desperately like to understand why some people are espousing 'no deal' and think it's a good way of leaving the EU.

twofingers I am becoming a no-dealer so I will try to answer your question. People who think no deal is a good idea think that it is now the only way to really leave the EU. Once we are out, then we can negotiate a trade deal with the EU like Canada or Japan has. And in the meantime of course we can trade with the EU and any other country without a trade deal. Canada and Japan have only just got proper EU deals but we have been buying their stuff for years.

The government has got plans in place for a no deal. They are pretending they haven't because they prefer the WA. Their plans are no doubt pretty rubbish but they will probably work. Where there's a will there's a way and all that.

The pound will fluctuate! Currency movements are as important to exporters as tariffs. If the pound goes down it's obviously easier to sell our stuff abroad. We already comply with EU regulations so they can't boycott us (not that they would want to).

The EU has strengths and weaknesses. People who want to leave believe that the faults now outweigh the benefits.

That's it in a nutshell. I have an export business and I am an employer and I don't fear a no deal. I've had to cope with loads of changes over the years so I'm used to it. I would rather have a clean brexit and take the opportunities it presents than suffer years of years of dithering about with the WA (which won't pass anyway).

Unfortunately most MPs have no interest in trade. They don't even understand the basics. So they will want Revoke and they are in charge!

{Once we are out, then we can negotiate a trade deal with the EU like Canada or Japan has. }
7-10 years is a long time to wait for that to happen.
{And in the meantime of course we can trade with the EU and any other country without a trade deal}
7-10 years at basic WTO tariffs will wipe the UK out.
{We already comply with EU regulations so they can't boycott us}
A 'No deal' scenario means that ALL the certifications for everything become null and void. It would mean that the UK could effectively not sell to the EU and the other 50-60 countries it has trade deals with.

As an exporter, you will need to provide certificates, proof of origin etc so you way well need to hire someone especially to deal with all this extra 'red tape' (once the UK government has managed to renegotiate standards and necessary certifications). Unless you were trading 'before the EEC' you may not realise how exciting and time consuming this will be.
In contrast, voting for the WA, things stay as they are until new legislation is agreed.
Thus the UK CAN leave, but ONLY the WA route.

The pound will fluctuate! Currency movements are as important to exporters as tariffs. If the pound goes down it's obviously easier to sell our stuff abroad. We already comply with EU regulations so they can't boycott us (not that they would want to)

Are you absolutely sure you are in export?

You make long term business decisions based on currency fluctuations then! which of course affects import raw material costs, esp fuel and can change very quickly, the numerous sterling devaluations over the decades have done little to improve our balance of payments.
Tariffs are a known fixed cost.

However, in the EU we are the world's 9th largest manufactured goods exporter and 3rd if services are included, we export over 50% of goods/services worldwide.... not too shabby seeing we are shackled by the evil EU lol!

Japan etc ... the EU has had facilitation agreements in place for years, same with USA and China, we lose these next March, along with 70 other FTA.

Once we leave, our goods do not comply to EU regs in any legal sense, hence the worry over delays as checks are done

Don't forget, world trade is not static. What is 'normal' now will definitely not be in say 5 years time. The EU car industry is changing rapidly for example and even the Germans are having to think hard about where they are going. they are anticipating a 2.8% growth last year to fall to practically no growth. This does not mean they won't be making cars, but just 'maintaining' output.

I certainly am in export. I export mainly to Southern Europe funnily enough.
If anyone is worried about no deal and wants some unbiased non-alarmist info about trade, fullfact.org is a good place. One thing to remember is that exports to the EU only make up a small proportion of UK GDP. Very valuable of course but not the be all and end all.

World trade is not static. You can say that again. Approximately 90 per cent of global growth in the next 10 to 15 years is expected to be generated outside the EU. That is a government statistic so probably wildly out, but there is obviously something in it. Although I personally think countries like Poland are about to boom. That's why we should maintain excellent relationships with our EU friends. I actually think we will do that more easily if we just get our coats and leave politely rather than always trying to force the EU to change.

MILLYONTH... Only on MN does saying leave no deal call out the responses you get of it not being possible, or will never happen.
From the day we first were offered a vote, I have wanted no deal.
The years to come with us giving and giving on WA. Are a nightmare that many remain have not thought off. Shafted is a word that comes to mind.... Why do you think it is going to get voted down... Maybe because most MPs feel the same way.

millyonth
The government has got plans in place for a no deal.
These 'plans' have included the appointment of a Minister for Food Supplies. As someone in a bog standard job on bog standard wages, working in an industry that has already been impacted by the referendum outcome, I find this extremely worrying. Also, the government's own impact statements are extremely negative, with a no deal scenario being the most damaging of all.

They are pretending they haven't because they prefer the WA. This doesn't make sense to me. Why would the government 'pretend' they have no plans for no deal when they should be selling Brexit to the masses? Also, it's news to me that they prefer the WA. Some support May's WA, but many have said it's inferior to no deal and many more have said it is a terrible deal and are supporting a people's vote. This lack of consensus, two and half years after the vote, does nothing to assuage the concerns of remainers.
Sorry, but you haven't convinced me at all. Thanks for answering, though!

It's Brexit that's shafting us, WA or No Deal.

{Approximately 90 per cent of global growth in the next 10 to 15 years is expected to be generated outside the EU}
So EU trade will be 10% of the world total. UK is a small fraction of that 10%, possibly 3% if it is lucky. Not impressive odds.
The UK is a bit short of natural resources so it will have to buy in much of it or find a way to reinvigorate the resources we have, something that has escaped UK government since the 1950's onwards. BIG investment needed.

{The years to come with us giving and giving on WA. Are a nightmare that many remain have not thought off. Shafted is a word that comes to mind.}
That is only because you have a negative frame of mind.
'Shafted' being the privileged position we are in now is not how Greece, Spain and Portugal would see it, their thoughts would be more like 'jammy bastards'.

One thing to remember is that exports to the EU only make up a small proportion of UK GDP.

But No Deal doesn’t just mean we leave the EU, we leave all of our current trade agreements - UK exports accounts for 30% of our GDP.

As of April 2016, only 15% of UK total trade was with countries that were not members of the EU and were not covered by any EU trade agreements. 51% of UK trade was with members of the European Union, 4% is with countries in the European Economic Area (EEA), 9% was covered by existing EU Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) and 21% was with countries with whom an EU PTA is currently under negotiation or exists, but not yet implemented.

No Deal will cost the UK around £9 billion in tariffs, plus the cost to business for customs documentation.

But, hey, No Deal will be just fine.

{But No Deal doesn’t just mean we leave the EU, we leave all of our current trade agreements - UK exports accounts for 30% of our GDP.}
The trouble with posting on MN is you think of all the 'other bits' that need including.
It's a bit like the 12 days of Christmas, 5 gold rings, 4 calling birds etc.
So you put up one 'hiccup' then work out how many other things collapse because of it.

" 90 per cent of global growth in the next 10 to 15 years is expected to be generated outside the EU."

The problem with stat like that is the incredibly low base that most of the world is at. China & India will grow a lot. They will negotiate very hard to swap UK visas for access to their markets. What can we sell to China, better quality or cheaper than Chinese already make it? Any ideas? I'm stumped. Apparently they don't like diesel Landrover SUVs right now, very much.

"90 per cent of global growth in the next 10 to 15 years is expected to be generated outside the EU."

Yes, but you are misunderstanding this point.

Most 90 percent of the growth will be in developing countries, which have large populations. Most of this growth will be these populations getting goods and services that we would consider basic now, it doesn't mean that they will start to become big markets for British exports, in fact its the other way round, they will start to compete against lower level British manufacturing and agriculture.

As these countries become more advanced their growth will slow significantly, as they come closer to the levels of developed economies.

{As these countries become more advanced their growth will slow significantly, as they come closer to the levels of developed economies.}
China is worried as their growth has fallen to around 6% IIRC. Germany, the best in the EU has fallen 2.8 to 2,5% and the UK sits at around 0.3%.
Of course these numbers represent differing aspects but useful as a rough indication. The UK also needs to factor in that many companies are poised to leave in March. Sitting at home playing tiddlywinks rather than building cars won't put food on the table.