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Brexit
Original poster

Brexit predictions: will it be TM's deal, no deal, second referendum or just stay in?

81 replies

Dongdingdong · 09/01/2019 17:54

There's just two months and 20 days to go until the United Kingdom leaves the EU - but there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before that happens.

I know it's impossible to say for sure, but what do you predict the outcome of this whole fiasco will be?

Will Theresa May get her deal through parliament? Will we crash out with no deal? Will there be a second referendum? Will the government manage to extend Article 50 and the negotiating period somehow? Will the government just call the whole thing off? Or will there be a general election before March 29th and if so, which party do you think would win and what will that mean for Brexit?

I'd love to hear what everybody thinks.

OP posts:
Original poster
Dongdingdong · 10/01/2019 09:27

Thanks for the insightful (if rather worrying) post @redtoothbrush!

OP posts:
frumpety · 10/01/2019 10:16

I think one of two things will happen , either revoke or no deal followed by a very quick re-join. But 2 months and 20 days is an awful long time in politics.

frumpety · 10/01/2019 10:30

Just read the thread, posted before reading, interesting that your DH thinks out and re-join Red. I don't see Brexit happening, but I count this scenario as Brexit not happening too !

jasjas1973 · 10/01/2019 13:28

Tories/DUP wont allow a GE
WA wont get through HoC
No Deal can't happen as Gov has already told of us of what a disaster it would be, so would have no defence why they allowed it to happen.

That leaves a Revoke or a PV (extension would need to be allowed) 3rd option is by some miracle EU allows an extension for further negotiation.

PickleSarnie · 10/01/2019 14:28

Since the first Monday at work after the official Brexit date is April 1st. I still have hopes that we'll all wake up to headlines on every newspaper going "April Fool!!!". And it will turn out to be a really expensive and really shit prank.

myotheraccountsa · 10/01/2019 14:45

Interesting. I'd heard the same RTB but not such a smooth / quick transition from ND to rejoin.

Holidayshopping · 10/01/2019 14:48

No Deal can't happen

I thought this was the default though and actually WILL be happening?

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2019 18:18

As it stands we are no dealing.

Unless Theresa May changes her mind.

Every one and every thing else is irrelevant and lacks the power to stop it.

The only person that matters is May and what she does.

NameChanger22 · 10/01/2019 18:19

No deal. Then chaos.

JSmitty · 10/01/2019 18:39

May's deal is dead. She's trying to win over the Brexit left such as Sam McClusky with promises of guarantees for workers' rights, but the Corbynite Midwich Cuckoos who dominate the CLPs are all for Remain so that's not going to fly.

Labour want to get a confidence vote up, but for that they are going to need Tory Remainers to defy their local associations who will figuratively lynch them if they do this.

Basically, go out, buy baked beans, toliet roll, padlocks and cricket bats.

1tisILeClerc · 10/01/2019 18:52

No deal WILL happen if May does not do something positive.
The Japanese president has just said that he and the rest of the world do not want to see a 'no deal'. It is well past bedtime in Westminster and the children need to put their toys away and go to bed.

GirlsBlouse17 · 10/01/2019 19:09

Would the EU be likely to extend article 50 if we were to have a general election now?

1tisILeClerc · 10/01/2019 19:14

{Would the EU be likely to extend article 50 if we were to have a general election now?}
If there were VERY clear signs that the UK had a viable and Pro EU opposition party who would step ut to the plate then possibly.
As Labour are currently fighting like rats in the same sack with no clear plan, very unlikely. The EU want this 'solved' as quickly as possible. They are ready for any outcome so 'blackmail' isn't going to work.

GirlsBlouse17 · 10/01/2019 19:26

If there was a general election, do you think that there could be a big surge towards voting for Lib dems as they seem like the only party who would campaign to revoke article 50 or have a second referendum and our only hope of getting out of this mess ?

PigletWasPoohsFriend · 10/01/2019 19:28

GirlsBlouse17 No because people will vote for more than Brexit in a GE. There maybe a slight increase but nothing significant.

GirlsBlouse17 · 10/01/2019 19:38

But if Brexit is the issue that overshadows all other issues, and if anyone who wants to remain looks at voting Lib dems as the only way of stopping this, I would have thought there could be a big surge in voting for Libdems.

I hope so anyway because if Corbyn is able to trigger a GE, I see the Lib dems as the only way out of this. And I'm not normally a libdem voter by the way!

PigletWasPoohsFriend · 10/01/2019 19:43

I hope so anyway because if Corbyn is able to trigger a GE

He won't though tbh. Certainly not before March.

Girlsblouse17 · 10/01/2019 19:48

There is no way out of it then

AlexaShutUp · 10/01/2019 20:05

No deal is looking increasingly likely. May is incredibly stubborn and, as she keeps saying, Brexit means Brexit. She certainly doesn't seem to care what the rest of parliament thinks. Having said that, she must realise that a no-deal exit would be catastrophic, and that it would therefore be likely to put the Tories out of power for a generation - it might even destroy them for good, as there wouldn't really be anyone else to take the blame. So I think May might try to get an extension on the date, perhaps followed by a second referendum?

I'm intrigued by the possibility of a no-deal exit followed by an emergency re-join. How would that work, I wonder? Would we be permitted to re-join on our existing terms if it happened very quickly?

1tisILeClerc · 10/01/2019 20:10

If a fantasy party appeared that actually addressed the issues that are the root cause of the major issues for many, typically outside London but not specifically and they had a financially workable plan which would also include remain, the EU might well be prepared to delay for a GE. Unfortunately there is no such party. Don't forget that the EU will have been going all over the statements by politicians of all sides over the last few years to try and get a feeling for the real mood of the UK.
I doubt they will find much encouragement that what is being proclaimed as an Eurosceptic UK is really a n EU lover.

Holidayshopping · 10/01/2019 20:57

if Corbyn is able to trigger a GE, I see the Lib dems as the only way out of this. And I'm not normally a libdem voter by the way!

I would vote for anyone supporting Remain.

Sadly, we have a blue muppet as our MP and he seems to get everyone’s votes no matter what the fuck he does.

What a bloody mess.

GirlsBlouse17 · 10/01/2019 21:31

If Theresa May and corbyn allow this mess to continue, then the Conservative Party and Labour party are dead to me and will never get my vote again. It's all crazy

AlexaShutUp · 10/01/2019 21:35

Girlsblouse, I agree.

AlexaShutUp · 10/01/2019 21:36

Not that the Tories would have ever got my vote anyway...

GirlsBlouse17 · 10/01/2019 21:47

Apart from in 97, I have voted Conservatives, but the last year my eyes have opened and my politics have changed