Brexit predictions: will it be TM's deal, no deal, second referendum or just stay in?

[Dongdingdong]

There's just two months and 20 days to go until the United Kingdom leaves the EU - but there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before that happens.

I know it's impossible to say for sure, but what do you predict the outcome of this whole fiasco will be?

Will Theresa May get her deal through parliament? Will we crash out with no deal? Will there be a second referendum? Will the government manage to extend Article 50 and the negotiating period somehow? Will the government just call the whole thing off? Or will there be a general election before March 29th and if so, which party do you think would win and what will that mean for Brexit?

I'd love to hear what everybody thinks.

Due to career and perceived class, I’m apparently a ‘natural Tory voter’. I probably would have been next time round (because I think current labour is useless), but the reality is that after being told I’m a citizen of nowhere, and watching the complete balls up the Tories have made of ever Brexit step because they are more interested in their family feud than in competently running the country, there’s no way I can vote for them.

Which leaves the Lib Dem’s - who thought letting Aimee Challenor join them was a good idea, and whose local councillors where I live spend a lot of time fighting projects that will actually improve local life.

So I might abstain from the next GE entirely or just spoil my ballot.

Theresa May will get a version of her deal through.

I am so sick of the politicians. It’s like a combination of reduced sleep and being in the limelight has completely gone to their heads. GET THIS DONE AND MOVE ON TO THE NEXT STAGE.

Theresa May will get a version of her deal through

I hope not .

We need a deal. And then we need to get on with all the other things we are not getting on with.

Housing
Justice - specifically prison reform and DA legislation
Transport
Higher Education funding

To name a few of the items we are not getting to.

Don’t patronise me about how none of this can be discussed because the financial sky is about to fall in. It isn’t and won’t.

The Second Referendum folk drive me crazy for this reason. The result will be the same. But a lot of time, money and goodwill will go up in smoke.

The Second Referendum folk drive me crazy for this reason. The result will be the same.

Do you really think it would be though Persona? Even with the shambolic situation we find ourselves in now?

Or we could revoke and get on with all the things you have mentioned Persona , be a heck of a lot quicker than waiting another 5-10 years for all the deals to be done and finalised. This isn't ending at the end of March. This is just the beginning, the WA is not all the deals we need to do and no deal does not mean not doing any deals. Only revoke means the ability to concentrate fully on the issues you've raised.

Moronically naive

"Housing
Justice - specifically prison reform and DA legislation
Transport
Higher Education funding"

all v true and all requires money, rexit means lower tax take = less money... hunt wants to open 2 new military bases in Asia... thats the priorities post brexit, not any of the above.... you ve put your faith in brexit and the same morons are still in power

The result of any second referendum will be the same. The campaign would be arduous and destructive. It would leave any future negotiating government damaged.

No Brexit is for the birds. The question is delay, no deal or deal. So deal it needs to be.

Really can't tell. I think the gov is dead set against both May's deal and against allowing No deal to happen, so perhaps they will manage to force staying in (I sure hope so). Almost everyone in government knows that either option is a terrible idea and now it's coming to the crunch, hopefully they will force the point.

NB, I'm also not convinced that a second referendum would give a clear win for leaving. The Leave campaign would fight the dirtiest possible war on it, screaming that Remainers are Elite enemies of democracy and are silencing The People and that all Leavers must vote as if their lives depend on it. And I suspect Remain might have difficulty mounting a convincing campaign for waiverers without doing Project Fear, or being patronising or a bit insulting, and against a wave of fake news crap on social media.

{Or we could revoke and get on with all the things you have mentioned Persona , be a heck of a lot quicker than waiting another 5-10 years for all the deals to be done and finalised. This isn't ending at the end of March. This is just the beginning, the WA is not all the deals we need to do and no deal does not mean not doing any deals. Only revoke means the ability to concentrate fully on the issues you've raised.}

Absolutely this!
The WA 'deal' part is 3 subject areas only, citizens rights being one of them. It allows the UK to be in a transition period where things stay effectively the same until specific treaties are negotiated and signed off. It is in the interests of the UK to do this skillfully and quickly.

Labour and Conservative MPs were all elected last year on a mandate of delivering Leave.

That might not count for people on this thread. But it does count.

They weren't. The 2017 GE wasn't really fought on Brexit at all. Which was in itself extremely odd.

Cameron was also elected on a mandate to change the law to give overseas uk citizens the vote, this would have meant a different result in 2016.

Just because people vote for something very damaging, doesn't mean the Gov has to steam ahead, once the facts are then discovered... e.g UC has been postponed/cancelled.. Tories were elected on a mandate to deliver UC !

Here's how I think this will play out -

1. Mays deal loses
2. Plan B tabled
3. Cross Party Plan B amendment before vote saying that if it fails we should extend Article 50 (it's the only amendment that could get a majority)
4. Amendment passes
5. Plan B fails
6. GC reluctantly calls for GE and fails (whilst breathing a sigh of relief)
7. Article 50 extension request fails to get approval from E.U. unless UK have election or referendum and a final statement of intent (it would be a short time frame - maybe 3 months which would give the UK next to no time to agree the question and organise a vote)
8. Parliament votes for referendum above GE
9. Referendum called

10. All Brexiters in the country protest 11. Remainers rejoice that they will get a 2nd shot at it 12. UK Politics f*cked for a generation

.....what I can't work out is what the referendum questions will be. Suspect Remainers in Parliament will insist remain will be an option. Hard core Brexiters will want No Deal on the table. Both are therefore likely questions since they are viable alternatives. Labour will want renegotiation on the table but if the E.U. rule this out as a condition of the Article 50 extension (which is what I think they will do - they don't want to go round and round the negotiation loop and waste another few years with uncertainty) then this option can't be on the table. Pragmatist and May will want the WA on the table but if parliament has already rejected it twice then there's an argument that it shouldn't feature.

So in essence I think we are trapped into Leave on No Deal vs Revoke Article 50.

I am getting a feeling of life rewinding to 2016!!!!
I am also getting a feeling of discontent being rife

BUT I am not getting a feeling for what the outcome of a 2nd Ref would be.

The world is watching and waiting whilst we publicly tear ourselves apart.

OK so here's my prediction.

• Legally, the current situation is that unless something changes and a "deal" of some form is approved by Parliament, then we leave on 29th March with "No deal"

• Politically, I think the current situation is something like this. Until next Tuesday obviously we don't "know" but I would expect TM's Withdrawal Agreement vote to be lost by the Government.

• I remain of the view that the surest way to avoid "no deal" which parliament overwhelmingly seems to wish to avoid, is to vote for "deal" and as we sit here now TM's deal = "deal". I don't believe that will be the outcome next Tuesday, but it might be in a subsequent vote, though I think that's unlikely.

• I don't think enough can change with TMs deal for it to secure a majority without either the Labour opposition, or the ERG conservatives moving significantly, I don't think that will happen in either case.

• My prediction is that, sadly I am rapidly arriving at the view that our Parliamentarians, as a whole, and, with many honourable exceptions (including TM herself) have no intention whatever of delivering "Brexit" and will not vote to do so in any form. I now think that a majority in the House of Commons believe that the 2016 referendum delivered a "wrong" result and that it cannot be allowed to stand in any form.

• Whether "No Brexit" is achieved by unilateral revocation of Article 50, by some form of Second Referendum, at this point I don't know, but my conviction at the moment is that our Parliament believe unshakeably that they are "right"; the voters on 23/06/16 were "wrong" and that it is the judgment of the Parliamentarians that must prevail, by fair means or foul.

I think May will send the WA back to Parliament again and again until they get sick of the sight of it and pass it.

Or there'll be a GE, at which Corbyn's Labour will spectacularly crash and burn.

Please not no deal. Please.

Mandate = actual manifesto commitment.

Revoke, spun as a temporary thing though. "We don't have time to renegotiate and we can't have no-deal". TM will steps down, strong armed by other conservatives who will tell her the party is dead for a generation if she doesn't. Brexiteer chosen to lead Cons party who will support a long term plan to leave, but in the meantime something will happen in the EU (Italian banks or reform, JUncker and Selmayr to step down/retire) to sway public opinion so that we do have a clear majority either way.
Labour irrelevant in the whole process.
You can tell me it's wishful thinking but it's getting me through the days.

If she doesn't revoke, it'll be no deal.
The WM is like when a couple get a dog because husband doesn't want a baby but wife does. No-one's happy. Some things are just too big to compromise on.

I agree Louise, however I am pretty sure that parliament WONT revoke unilaterally. It would be party suicide. If it was overwhelming and openly backed by Labour AND Tories together (which would never happen) then yes, they might do it. It would also be the end of democracy as we know it in this country.

I think one of the most interesting aspects is that May is deep down a Remainer delivering Brexit, and that Corbyn is a Leaver who is being pressed to object to Brexit (oh the irony 😀).

If I was being very very very cynical and also potentially overestimating the government and E.Us strategic ability I could theorise that May has deliberately put us in the No Deal vs Bad Deal vs No Brexit position....simply to revoke Article 50.

Labour’s policy of general election whilst still committing to Brexit (despite the party membership's overwhelmingly wanting Remain) means that they wouldn't gain power even if there was a GE - also few believe the 'we could reopen negotiations, get an even better deal in days, get E.U.to agree to an extension of Article 50' and get all this sorted in a matter of months. JC probably doesn't really want to win a GE anyway since he doesn't want to pick up the mess we are in, and he doesn't have a viable plan......stating that Brexit will happen will ensure that he loses. Remainers on both sides would switch to Lib Dem rather than vote 'for the other side'

Pushing for a 2nd referendum openly will alienate half the country (plus many Tories are Leavers) so May couldn't do this. May would have hoped that Labour would have been forced to proposing a 2nd Ref to prevent a No Deal Exit. However Labour didn't fall into this trap and stuck to the GE rhetoric.

So ......assuming May wants to Remain then the best way to do that is to table a compromise deal that evangelists on both sides of the Tory party wont vote for and Labour won't vote for on principle. Then expect JC to call a GE and to not be able to. Since the only thing parliament has a majority on is that there can't be a No Deal Brexit, there would be no option left other than call a referendum (the Tory party then doesn't get the blame).....I.e a referendum accidentally (as far as the puppets know) becomes a cross party policy. By this stage her deal is dead since it will have been rejected by parliament. The referendum can therefore only be leave with no deal or remain.

There is only one flaw in this evil genius plan - she doesn't 100% know which way the referendum vote will go but it's very likely to be remain this time. What she does know is that if it's a Leave with No Deal,then that's not her (nor the governments) fault and it's the true will of the people and she has been proven right - but no one thinks the population will want a No Deal exit. The information being pumped out now (and being described as Project Fear) is warming us up for a Remain vote. Project Fear is actually the Remain campaign staring early under the guise of contingency planning. Contingency planning spend doesn't come out of Remains capped campaigning budget.....the Leave campaign is way behind so they will be at a distinct disadvantage if a referendum is called quickly. If she gets the Remain outcome she will stand down (it would have been her objective)

The worst thing that could happen to May under this plan is that her WA deal gets passed next week so we genuinely have to leave next week.

Guess if I am a Leaver or Remainer, Tory vs Labour 😀

Moronically naïve is that aimed at my pragmatic and sensible scenario for the country Persona ?

I voted Leave in the referendum.
I don't think I'd bother voting again if Brexit is not delivered in one form or another.