Brexit predictions: will it be TM's deal, no deal, second referendum or just stay in?

[Dongdingdong]

There's just two months and 20 days to go until the United Kingdom leaves the EU - but there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before that happens.

I know it's impossible to say for sure, but what do you predict the outcome of this whole fiasco will be?

Will Theresa May get her deal through parliament? Will we crash out with no deal? Will there be a second referendum? Will the government manage to extend Article 50 and the negotiating period somehow? Will the government just call the whole thing off? Or will there be a general election before March 29th and if so, which party do you think would win and what will that mean for Brexit?

I'd love to hear what everybody thinks.

WA.

No deal. GE after 29th March.

Forgot to add, no idea who'd win a GE.

According to the Economist parliament is against a no-deal but "cannot easily prevent it" - crazy. Unfortunately I can't read the whole article as I'm not subscribed, but for anyone who is, it's here:

www.economist.com/britain/2019/01/09/can-a-no-deal-brexit-be-stopped

A second referendum is not an option for 29 March. The UK can only present one of 3 things, No deal (default if nothing gets agreed within the UK), WA or Revoke A50.
All the 'froth' between now and 29th is just the UK making it's mind up.

Do you think there's any chance Article 50 could be revoked?

Bellini - I just can't see how WA will get through parliament. And what's the point of MPs forcing TM to come up with an alternative deal in three days if that doesn't happen? There's no way on earth she can do that - especially as the EU would obviously have to agree any new terms she presents.

TM can't come up with an alternative to the WA, it has been 'cast in stone' by the EU since November and they have said repeatedly that it is the WA or 'nothing'. There are 2 'flavours' of nothing, being remain (revoking) in which case 'nothing' happens and we carry on as we are at present, or 'no deal' which is that ALL treaties and laws lapse and the UK becomes a 'third country'. The EU has a brief plan if this is what happens, and this is a bare bones consideration so that SOME planes fly, Ferries can operate, and trucks can transport things. This is for a limited time only, 9 or 12 months and can be stopped whenever the EU alone say so. Basically they will repatriate anything necessary from the UK, be it manufacturing machinery or whatever that strictly belongs to 'them'.

The EU has spent thousands of hours with expensive lawyers from 27 countries hammering out the WA, they are not going to change it just because the UK are still buggering about.

Thanks @1tisILeClerc. So what do you predict will happen?

Personally I have no idea, I leave that part to the tactical thinkers like RTB and BCF. I think the UK should now leave but in the least damaging way, whatever that is. A no deal would be catastrophic, the WA is probably best but possibly done faster rather than slower as prolonged indecision is worse than gradual fading away. For example if companies know they have 12 months to prepare for something, they can work to that. If they are told 'about 3 or 4 years' they will not necessarily focus and do it.

Politicians are playing with largely 'fanciful' stuff. Companies are dealing and planning real things that involve life, jobs and money for which timing and certainty is vital. Big industry in particular has been waiting for politicians to make their mind up for 2 1/2 years, which is a long time to hold your breath.

Delay of the Art 50 deadline

{Delay of the Art 50 deadline}
Unfortunately like a hand grenade with the pin pulled out, it is set to go off on 29 March, There are very few ways to stop it.
The government buggering about and not deciding isn't one of them.

It will be like when Pam woke up and saw Bobby in the shower, and we all realised the last two years were just a dream.

I leave that part to the tactical thinkers like RTB and BCF

Forgive my ignorance but who are RTB and BCF?

Is there any chance Corbyn could call a vote of NC and force a general election before March 29th?

I'd love Article 50 to be revoked, but I think it is more likely that they will try to extend the deadline beyond the 29th of March.

That way it might be possible to find the time to go for either a General Election or another referendum.

Personally, I would just like Brexit to be cancelled, but I guess that is unlikely.

RedToothBrush and BigChocFrenzy, on the Westminsterenders threads.
All this and more are discussed, including cat pictures to calm you down!

Me too @Topsey . But what I think is going to happen is No Deal. Which is terrifying

Is there any chance Corbyn could call a vote of NC and force a general election before March 29th?

Nope he hasn't got the numbers. Tories nor DUP would vote for it. Which is why he repeatedly talks about it but never puts his money where his mouth is.

No deal

Personally I have no idea, I leave that part to the tactical thinkers like RTB and BCF. I think the UK should now leave but in the least damaging way, whatever that is.

Thats very kind but I admit I'm struggling to see how this will pan out. I'll try and logic it out though.

Its at the point where tactics are becoming less relevant. It's just time that's the real issue. And the ONLY thing that needs to happen for No Deal is to create crisis after crisis by whatever means necessary. The ability to create an opportunity for something else is remarkly limited for one reason alone May has to agree to it.

Keep this in mind with EVERYTHING.

1. I think May is too stubborn to revoke.

2. I think she's determined to leave no matter what.

3. And I think she's prepare to use the procedural playbook as far as she possibly can.

4. She's already proved she does not respect the sovereignity of Parliament. She's proved she doesn't respect the rule of law.

So where does that leave us?

The Swire Amendment seems to be one of two things:
a) a way to break the WA and ditch it in favour of formally persuing no deal without announcing it as official policy by forcing the EU to say 'hey that's not what we agreed' thus making them look the back guy and helping the EU = punishing us narrative
b) seen as a way by May to kill off hostility to the backstop by effectively putting it to a vote about Parliament having a theoretical veto, fully in the knowledge that its unlikely to pass the HoC. (But it could also inadvertently kill off the WA in the process anyway). Thus making the ERG go for her WA later, rather than be at risk of the threat of revoke.

Both options seem to be potentially ways for May to ditch the WA without losing face. Except I don't think she's planning to do that either. I just think she has no idea what to do and her stubbornness makes it impossible to take an alternative tack. And I just don't think her revoking is credible as an idea.

Instead she's just running the clock down whether deliberately or out of incompetence (take you pick I doubt either is incorrect)

Then idea that May can re-present the WA if it fails next week, is open to a point of order...

An attempt to oust Bercow seems inevitable to me for all of these reasons. It creates more crisis and delay even if it doesn't work.

Bercow may will question representing the WA - possibly to try and get something else on the table. But if May doesn't agree to that, then the WA is formly and finally rejected by Parliament and the only other option that is left seems to be No Deal.

This risk may also mean Bercow does allow (somehow, if the Government can find a clause), the representation of the WA as the risk of no other alternative being presented to parliament is too high.

But I still think the chances of it passing even then are limited.

No Deal therefore seems most likely. May seems to be leaning towards it. Whether intentional or not. Politically it's looking less of a disaster to the Tory Party that it might be because the left is fragmented (as in 1930s Germany...) So its more attractive to her than it might otherwise have been.

A50 can't be extended unilaterally and there isn't any reason for the EU to extend. Its not in their interests too. The UK can't be trusted (though what happens in the US over the coming weeks might change international politics too)

However I do think there is the option that May will in effect defy parliament and abuse the power of the executive by declaring an emergency somehow at the last minute in the national interest which allows her to formally agree to the WA. The EU can't question the legimatcy or they question British sovereignity. At this point, it would be too late for anyone to challenge.

Bercow confirmed today that there are ways in which the executive can in effect overrule Parliament. It's highly dictatorial and arguably against our constitution but I think May still might just attempt something like that.

My point is that I just can't really see any option but No Deal or the WA because of May holding all the cards and what her style of play is.

If May has the brass front I think she will possibly attempt something dodgy like the above, knowing that the alternative of no deal is worse anyway because she'll believe she's somehow guided by God and its in the National Interest. But I don't know that she'll be successful and I fear that we'll meaning and ethically correct challenges to her manner will help her to fall but merely result in no deal.

There are so many moving parts to this though that it could be wildly off. But I'm going off May being a creature of habit and having enough brass front and arrogance to take at least a variation of the above.

I would truly love to be incorrect about any of my basic assumptions of May, because that does make other options at least possible...

I think May herself is the biggest limiting factor.

FWIW DH for reasons I can't go into believes that an emergency rejoin after a no deal is still on the cards.

He's always thought it, and I've always thought it fantasy.

But he told me something that has made me think it possible, which I didn't previously.

I do think it's a stretch. And wishful thinking. But...

Yeah.

Sadly and scarily, no deal.

How intriguing RTB!

I think she’ll revoke. Several times in past speeches she’s askedtold MPs to back her deal or risk no Brexit at all.

I change my mind on this almost daily though