Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

Has this been analysed? Odd timing n'est ce pas?

"France and Germany are to forge shared defence, foreign and economic policies in an unprecedented “twinning” arrangement regarded as a prototype for the future of the European Union.

This month Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron will sign a treaty that paves the way for the two nations to present a united diplomatic front to the world and to mount joint peacekeeping missions in conflict zones. Both countries will lobby for Germany to receive a permanent seat on the UN security council, alongside France, the US, China, Russia and Britain, the leading Allied powers on the winning side at the end of the Second World War.

France and Germany also intend to speak with one voice in Brussels, drawing up common positions before pivotal EU summits…"

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/france-and-germany-join-forces-as-a-single-superpower-fjf3bgv60

Once again, I’m no historian, but so similar, Math -
Taxation
The extent of executive power

France and Germany also intend to speak with one voice in Brussels, drawing up common positions before pivotal EU summits…"

Isn't this going to be grist to the Leavers mill? The beginnings of an EU Army? Although if we were to stay in, it would be a three way agreement where the UK was an important part.

Luckily nothing much else is going on on Tuesday
So what can we expect?
Another drone attack? Three migrants capsize in a dinghy? Lion escapes from London Zoo? Minor politician sends naughty texts? I’m sure there are plenty of things that could usefully distract an already bored and fractious public.

Hell hath no fury…

Tory MPs plot to dock Speaker's pay or axe his pension over Brexit intervention
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/09/john-bercow-takes-control-brexit-critics-warn-unprecedented/

@borntobequiet I like the idea of an escaped lion . But only if it is fake and no one gets hurt.

Shall we have a sweepstake ....

How many restaurants / pubs in your area will shut up shop during January due to staff shortages, rising prices and general uncertainty.
My local paper is covering at least one a day.

Where I was working yesterday there is nearly zero unemployment, but prices cannot rise because customers are poor ....

Peregina I do wonder what we will do when Trump pulls the plug on NATO.

The irony is that we still have a bilateral defence arrangement with France too anyway. Thus if France was ever declared war on, we would not avoid that war regardless...

Here is one of my cats for the collection. He appears to also be dealing with some difficult stuff this morning.

@BiglyBadgers - a beauty!

{Isn't this going to be grist to the Leavers mill? The beginnings of an EU Army? Although if we were to stay in, it would be a three way agreement where the UK was an important part}
The 'horror' of an 'EU Army' is a SERIOUS thought failure by those opposing it.
Historians will tell you time and time again that former battles were lost by failure to communicate effectively between allies and 'power struggles' among the command chain.
Cohesion and effective force are greatest when there is a bond between those that like sausages, cheese or whatever the Brits specialise on. Leavers see an EU army as a 'threat' because they see the EU as 'them' and not 'us'. The most significant threat to the EU is currently Russia, and with Trump playing silly buggers can't be relied on to help if push comes to shove.

Being reported today that 1 in 5 children in the UK face food insecurity.

Trussell Trust @ trusselltrust
We fully support @CommonsEAC call for a Minister for Hunger and a measurement of food insecurity. Although #foodbanks are providing vital support to those in crisis, no charity can replace people having enough money for the basics. Our response in full >
www.trusselltrust.org/2019/01/10/trussell-trust-responds-environmental-audit-committees-report/

{Tory MPs plot to dock Speaker's pay or axe his pension over Brexit intervention}
I would have thought there were more pressing things to be doing, like running the country or deciding what the hell is going to happen after 29 March.
No?
OK, play stupid games then.

I can almost feel the EU negotiators and lawyers scratching their heads to find a way to make the UK go away now.
A bit of Euroscepticism is one thing by the UK government acting like a bunch of fuckwit schoolkids, deliberately knocking down everything is not going to sit well if the UK revokes.

The great thing about escaped lions is that, like drones, it only needs enough people to say they have seen one to start a panic and deter people from walking past hedges in case it leaps out and mauls them or eats their dog.

“Being reported today that 1 in 5 children in the UK face food insecurity.”

It’s why we dare not rely on foodbanks and charity as an answer to poverty. They are very reliant on the whim of donors. When donors stop donating, people will starve.

There are already signs of this happening. The co-ordinator of our local foodbank reports that they are down on donations at the moment. She wonders if people are prepping for No Deal instead.
The claim that these people deserve to struggle because they (allegedly) voted Leave, with no evidence whether they did or not, makes a convenient excuse for some.

The trouble with May’s attempt to get Labour MPs onside is that, thanks to her habit of double dealing and renegation, no-one trusts her an inch.

She’s sought to circumvent agreements too often for anyone to believe she’ll honour any promises made this time.

Here's my furry PA....

Loving all the black cats. 💕

We can all feel very lucky with the black cats. My current moggy is a tabby, very pretty. Will post a pic if feeling low.

@1tisILeClerc. Got to respond to this comment. "The 'horror' of an 'EU Army' is a SERIOUS thought failure by those opposing it."

I have done so before but again to try and set out the positon of a "leaver" on this and why it should be opposed, as quickly as I can. and then to ask how this amounts to a "thought failure" please?

• As the UK, our key strategic defence and security alliance is NATO, has been for decades, always should remain so IMO.
• I see no advantage to the UK in being a part of any "alternative" alliance, why would we want to be part of something which could challenge NATO?
• I believe that you are correct when you suggest that what I would interpret as a "desire" for EU armed cooperation is based on the perceived lack of trust in American commitment to NATO
• That last point is, I believe nonsense. I've heard no suggestion that America isn't committed to NATO. What is it committed to, is not having a situation where Europe's defence is funded by American taxpayers. In this, the US position is correct.
• Why would the UK want to commit its forces (or be compelled to commit its forces if it remained an EU member state) to an alliance that isn't NATO?

-An EU army should be absolute anathema to the ethos of an organisation that is self declared to be about peaceful co-operation between nations, why isn't it?

The Government has responded to the petition you signed – “Rescind Art.50 if Vote Leave has broken Electoral Laws regarding 2016 referendum”.

Government responded:

It is regrettable that fines were levied on multiple groups, but it is firm policy the Article 50 notification will not be withdrawn. Britain voted to leave and Government respects that decision.

It is regrettable that fines have been levied on multiple groups involved in the referendum campaign. However, the Government is clear that there can be no attempt to rescind Article 50. The British people voted to leave the EU, and it is the duty of the Government to deliver on their instruction.

The result of the referendum held on 23 June 2016 saw a majority of people vote to leave the European Union. This was the biggest democratic mandate for a course of action ever directed at any UK Government. Following this, Parliament authorised the Prime Minister to trigger Article 50, passing the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act.

In last year’s General Election, over 80% of people then voted for parties committing to respecting the result of the referendum. It was the stated policy of both major parties that the decision of the people would be respected. The Government is clear that it is now its duty to implement the will of the electorate.

This was not a decision made after just a few weeks of campaigning, but one that came after a debate that had taken place both in Parliament and across the country for decades.

The Government is determined to make a success of the British people’s decision to leave the European Union. And that is how we have always approached the negotiations - anticipating success, not failure. It is vital that we try to reach an agreement that builds a strong relationship between Britain and the EU as neighbours, allies and partners. Not just for those who voted to leave, but for every citizen of the United Kingdom. We were given a national mandate and this Government is determined to deliver a deal in the national interest.

As the Prime Minister has said: “This is about more than the decision to leave the EU; it is about whether the public can trust their politicians to put in place the decision they took.” The British people can trust this Government to honour the referendum result and get the best deal possible. To do otherwise would be to undermine the decision of the British people. The premise that the people can trust their politicians to deliver on the promises they make and will deliver them in Parliament is fundamental to our democracy.

It is not acceptable for any organisation to breach electoral procedures and it is regrettable that fines have been levied on multiple groups involved in the referendum campaigns. The Electoral Commission is an independent regulator, accountable to Parliament, not the Government, and the use of its sanctioning powers show that it is doing its job.

However, almost three quarters of the electorate took part in the referendum, resulting in the highest ever number of votes cast for anything in UK electoral history, to leave the European Union. This instruction was then reinforced both in Parliament, and in the subsequent General Election. The British people therefore gave a clear directive to Government to leave the EU, and we are committed to respecting that directive. Our focus now is on making a success of Brexit, and delivering an outcome which will better the lives of British people, whether they voted to leave or to remain.

Department for Exiting the European Union

I think she's trying to get through the least worst version of Leave and has, at least for now, managed to get a duplicitous jackal like Gove inside the tent pissing out.

The least worst version would be soft Brexit CU + SM.

She just wants to get the hardest Brexit she can in view of the demands of the NI border, and keep to her red lines. She also wants to leave the path clear for a harder right Tory to take over from her.

Europe is wise to build up their own forces independent of the US
and the UK too would be wise not to be so reliant on an ally that is clearly becoming less of one.

The interests of the US over the last 30 years have moved increasingly away from Europe and towards other regions,
especially once the communist USSR was replaced by the fascist Russia

Remember how even Mrs Thatcher was ordered by Reagan to accept a compromise peace plan with Argentina over the Falklands

• only the fact that Galtieri wanted 100% victory instead of 80% saved her govt from destruction. That was because even then, her "friend" Reagan prioritised friendships with South American coutries over the UK.

US support for NATO in Europe is increasingly dependent on money, the EU making concessions on trade deals which the voters don't want
and worst of all
demanding British and other European troops to support the US in countries way outside Europe.

The US has been moving ever further to the batshit right over the decades and supporting its oligarchs in trying to export its merciless raw capitalism around the world.

The situation has drastically worsened with Trump and his obvious preference for Putin and other dictators, over the US's traditional friends in Europe, Canada etc.

The last sensible person in his cabinet resigned, saying he could no longer participate in this dangerous preference for former enemies over traditional friends

I agree. All signs are that TM is a very hard Brexiter. Too many remainers give her the benefit of the doubt.
Corbyn is of course the same.