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Brexit

Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/01/2019 14:14

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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PCPlumsTruncheon · 09/01/2019 23:38

DCat is an economic migrant - he moved from next door as the conditions were better. He’s very worried about Brexit

Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!
Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!
Buteo · 09/01/2019 23:47

PCPlum is he Schrödinger’s Cat - simultaneously catching all your mice and eating all your cat food?

springtimeyet · 09/01/2019 23:54

The transfer of qualifications is a nightmare in US as well, I have given up a couple of times because I don't need to work. I've picked up all the paperwork again for my own sanity. I work in a very specialized mental health field with low pay and massive skill shortages.
The shutdown stuff is ridiculous, healthcare is mad, food is expensive and often terrible. Unless you have money life is very tough in the US. If we Brexit I see the hard right reproducing this in the UK.

HesterThrale · 09/01/2019 23:56

Late, but I’ve only just caught up with the thread!

A hypothetical musing... earlier it was posted that initial enquiries may be being made about requesting an extension of the A50 period. Would this then extend the time during which the UK could legally Revoke?

DarkArts · 10/01/2019 00:40

Jumping in, thanks red Cake

DoctorTwo · 10/01/2019 01:20

When I hear that certain MPs want a time limited backstop a lyric jumps into my head:-

"You're just another coffin on its way down the emerald aisle,
Where the children's stony glances mourn your death with a terrorist's smile"

I wonder if Grease Smug et al had to send their kids to 'protect our borders' they'd be as blase as they are now.

Mistigri · 10/01/2019 07:11

A hypothetical musing... earlier it was posted that initial enquiries may be being made about requesting an extension of the A50 period. Would this then extend the time during which the UK could legally Revoke?

Can be revoked as long as the A50 period is running I think - as long as we are still in the EU we have the right not to leave.

But the ECJ did appear to set some "good faith" conditions for revocation and also I'm not sure on what grounds the UK could apply for an extension.

Buteo · 10/01/2019 07:32

But the ECJ did appear to set some "good faith" conditions for revocation and also I'm not sure on what grounds the UK could apply for an extension.

I think the Advocate General proposed the “good faith” conditions, but the ECJ ruling did not.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 07:33

Jaguar Landrover shedding 5,000 jobs

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46810473

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 07:34

The only thing that can change HoC speaker - or the rulings they make - is a vote in the HoC. Another vote that is never going to happen.

umpteennamechanges · 10/01/2019 07:40

So already this morning 5,000 layoffs at JLR who have been warning for a long time that Brexit would bite and the worst December in retail for a decade.

It's almost like Project Fear might be real, who'd have thought? Hmm

I'm particularly concerned that we're going into this mess at the worst possible time, with a potential global recession looming on top of our own domestic Brexit fiasco. Could be a really bumpy ride which I'm pretty nervous about Confused

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 07:46

We're straying into the weird world of self-fulfilling prophecies.

Just the news about slow December, JLR is going to trigger decisions that will start to knock-onto others.

Just behind, Debenhams don't look too clever. That would be a lot of retail real-estate to flood the market with.

Mrsr8 · 10/01/2019 08:03

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/01/2019 08:08

YouGov haven't done a voting intention survey since 4 December.

It was 40% Con 38% Lab then. Surely it's changed over the last month.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/01/2019 08:11

Ahhh just seen that this week the Observer said that the voting intention gap had increased over the last month..

The conventional voting intention question produces a six-point Conservative lead (40% to 34%).

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2019 08:12

Would this then extend the time during which the UK could legally Revoke?

Yes.

OP posts:
Hesta54 · 10/01/2019 08:13

DGRossetti Nothing to do with a 50% drop in sales in China?

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2019 08:13

Revoke is possible under an extention not a transition. Hence May is desperately trying to get the WA through.

OP posts:
borntobequiet · 10/01/2019 08:18

Not sure if PMK or if already posted on this thread but some time ago I said that Parliament would go in to spasm and force a Revoke - it was tongue in cheek but I think we’re seeing a bit of a spasm - don’t think it would get to Revoke though. I worry that we are living in the Land of Unintended Consequences (and have been since the formation of the Coalition govt in 2010, probably), and that any political action, however well meant, could result in disaster.
WRT teaching - my DD would be a wonderful teacher. She has excellent qualifications in a STEM subject, is very good with children (is currently in a job that involves quite a lot of behaviour monitoring and management), and has the sort of dramatic flair that is useful for the day long performance that is secondary teaching. She won’t go near it. She saw me too often in tears of exhaustion at the end of a day of coping with low level disruption, unsupportive SLT and ridiculous government imposed initiatives and requirements. And I was a good teacher, getting terrific results, liked by my students and valued by colleagues.

mathanxiety · 10/01/2019 08:20

There must be a legal limit, how long a PM is allowed to rule - as "caretaker" - without the HoC
Anyone know this ??

www.britainexpress.com/History/Charles-I-Conflict-with-Parliament.htm
This is what happened at one point of history.

^The UK PM is becoming more like an elected absolute monarch.
So it is long past time that Parliament was given more powers, to help redress this.^
It is true that the PM (and executive) are considerably closer now to the position of monarch than they have been since the era of universal suffrage.

The constitutional crisis outlined in the first link ended badly for the monarch.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/01/2019 08:56

The UK PM is becoming more like an elected absolute monarch.

Yup. One with diabetes who operates on little sleep. Not a good combo for unilateral, secret non collegiate decision making.

bellinisurge · 10/01/2019 09:01

I take the opposite view about TM. I think she's trying to get through the least worst version of Leave and has, at least for now, managed to get a duplicitous jackal like Gove inside the tent pissing out.
She is trying and failing to run the clock down to force WA through because the alternatives are No Deal or No Brexit. There is clearly no parliamentary majority for No Deal.
Dot. Dot. Dot.

GaspodeWonderCat · 10/01/2019 09:02

www.gov.uk/prepare-eu-exit it is a little - thin - in places.

Prepare for EU exit if you live in the UK ...

bellinisurge · 10/01/2019 09:04

@GaspodeWonderCat - waiting for the government advice "for consumers" which is apparently due on Tuesday. Luckily nothing much else is going on on Tuesday Confused

Cheekysquirrel · 10/01/2019 09:07

Here’s an interesting fact - I’m t1 and if my bloods are too high / low I act impulsively and irrationally. Particularly if they are high. Guess what pushes blood sugars high? Stress.
God knows how stressed TM must be - you’d think very.
I know t1 is a very individual condition and some people manage better than others and some people are more affected by blood sugars swings than others.
But I honestly don’t know how TM is managing to cope with t1 and be PM. I really really don’t.