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Brexit

Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

974 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/01/2019 12:11

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

OP posts:
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Mrsr8 · 07/01/2019 19:56

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BiglyBadgers · 07/01/2019 20:05

I not defending Corbyn. And yes a lot of his supporters that I know are getting very upsetting about Brexit. However that wasn't the point I was making. I was pointing out that as most people in the Labour party support his more left leaning policies (ignoring Brexit) it's hardly a suprise they are voting in MPs that also support this policies and getting rid of one's that don't. This is not some terrible conspiracy.

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 07/01/2019 20:13

It’s not a conspiracy it’s total idolisation, putting him on a pedestal and thinking he can do no wrong, if my debate with my local Labour women’s group is anything to go by. Lasted all day.
I got , quite frankly , very annoyed by the end , with the head honcho primarily who cannot admit any error and really got up my nose. But stopped rather than disgracing myself. However, it is a surprising very vocal but tiny group . Post seen by 10 only loved by one other and several having a go at me.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/01/2019 20:20

Under the British Constitution, MPs of all parties are allowed independence to use their own judgement
They are not there merely to deliver the agreed decision of their party members

That is illustrated by the fact that an MP can even change party, but retain their seat until the next GE

MPs are required to represent all their constituents, not just those of their local party, who are usually about 200 people out of an electorate of 60,000, with views generally far more extreme than the other 60k
That holds whether it is a narrow clique of Labour or of Tory party members.

The chart I posted showed that people feel more strongly about Brexit than about party affiliations.
That is why polls suggest Labour would get hammered if we Brexit with their support.

So, anyone getting rid of Remain MPs is condemning Labour to disaster at the next GE

Corbyn is astonishingly unpopular and behind May
Any group trying to deselect MPs and replace with his supporters is condemning Labour to longterm oblivion.

Ta1kinPeace · 07/01/2019 20:22

Bigly
it's hardly a suprise they are voting in MPs that also support this policies and getting rid of one's that don't
THe problem in the Labour party was the utter stupidity of Ed Millibrain allowing anybody who paid £3 to have a vote on the leader right away

  • no need for folks to actually get involved and attempt to understand the issues
before being allowed to remove tried and effective MPs and replace them with unknown people with no knowledge or experience all rather like the brexit vote in fact [sad}
TatianaLarina · 07/01/2019 20:24

Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham

When Labour stands up to the Government on Brexit the Government tends to fold. Which is why it is right to ask why Labour so rarely stands up to the Government.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

I am told Govt may now accept @YvetteCooperMP's Finance Bill amendment to limit tax raising powers under no deal. Some ministers arguing better to do that than invite another very visible/inevitable defeat. Decision tmrw

TatianaLarina · 07/01/2019 20:31

Faisal Islam @faisalislam

Interestingly shadow Cabinet/frontbench given green light to sign this letter - so you have Govt ministerial aides and shadow Cabinet signing letter seeking to stop No Deal Brexit...could well see 300+ by next week

BigChocFrenzy · 07/01/2019 20:37

No govt likes losing votes - and this one sounds scared, despite this claim:

Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes

Government sources say they are "relaxed" about the impact of losing the Yvette Cooper amendment.

It would mean HMG losing "minor tax powers to make no deal less bad" - low down the list of worries in a no deal scenario

< I suppose No Deal is so bad anyway, that it is difficult to make it worse - rather like eating snot before jumping over the cliff >

Hazardswan · 07/01/2019 20:37

With you leclerc IT'S NOT A DEAL. A leaver I know thought it was... They should really really get a refund on their degree

Whatthefoxgoingon · 07/01/2019 20:39

Brexit: the uncivil war

Tonight 9pm Channel 4

Will Westministenders be tuning in to watch?

bellinisurge · 07/01/2019 20:40

I'm not sure what the strategy is but I think Yvette Cooper's amendment is just part of a concerted attempt to stop No Deal via parliamentary means.

bellinisurge · 07/01/2019 20:41

@Whatthefoxgoingon - I'm recording it. My dh can't bear to watch anything Brexit related.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/01/2019 20:41

Meanwhile, is batshittery catching îf you talk about it ?

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasing-number-of-tory-mps-considering-no-deal-brexit-as-a-viable-plan-bukk_5c2f6bbce4b0407e908ad874

Several senior Tories told HuffPost UK that as the reality of a no-deal Brexit is discussed more widely, more MPs are beginning to think of it as a viable option.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/01/2019 20:44

seaborne freight ?

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Ooh. Helen Goodman tells Commons that DfT's Permanent Secretary asked for a written ministerial instruction from Chris Grayling to carry out no deal spending.
In other words; one that he had advised against and needed to be ordered to do.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/01/2019 20:49

This is why we won't get a better deal - the EU did actually bend their rules and go further than they wanted:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-deal-irish-backstop-border-vote-commons-parliament-a8715871.html?amp&

She should have gone to the podium in Brussels on 25 November, at the end of the special summit and said:
“It is game, set and match to the UK.
I have secured the deal we wanted.
It was a hard-fought negotiation but the EU side has conceded a UK-wide temporary customs union.

That means we avoid a hard border in Ireland and we avoid a customs border in the Irish Sea.
We will have the benefits of special access to the EU single market and an end to free movement of people.”

RedToothBrush · 07/01/2019 20:49

Watching on catchup tomorrow is the plan.

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Hazardswan · 07/01/2019 20:51

Aye bellini I think they have several amendments planned, this is the first and it's seen as controversial but it's part of a bigger plan. I'm enthused that someone is doing something.

Ta1kinPeace · 07/01/2019 20:53

We are about to watch Channel 4 (esp after Evan Davis plugged it at the end of PM) but shall try not to double screen so will comment tomorrow ....

BigChocFrenzy · 07/01/2019 20:57

Next leader
Tory members go for Brexiter, Labour members for moderate

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

"If Corbyn were to stand down, who would you most like to see replace him as Labour leader?"
@YouGov survey of Labour members via @ProfTimBale

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/jeremy-corbyn-s-successor-may-be-more-establishment-you-expect
.....
And the equivalent poll of Tory members on who they would like to see succeed May, via @michaelsavage

mobile.twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1081681663388717061

Westministenders: Teetering on the edge
Westministenders: Teetering on the edge
jasjas1973 · 07/01/2019 21:00

BCF

I may have misunderstood the EU's stance but if May relaxed her red lines, the WA can be scrapped and a new one negotiated?

DGRossetti · 07/01/2019 21:03

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/07/brit_eu_domain_owners/

theregister.co.uk
Attention all British .eu owners: Buy dotcom domains and prepare to sue, says UK govt
7 Jan 2019 at 20:33
5-6 minutes
Brexit just gets better

panic

British citizens with a .eu domain should buy a dotcom replacement and lawyer up, the UK government has formally advised.

In official guidance put out over the Christmas break, the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) warned that "if you currently hold a .eu registration… you should consider transferring your registration to another top level domain… Examples of other top level domains include .com, .co.uk, .net or .org."

It goes on: "You may wish to seek advice from your local domain name registrar on whether the terms of your contractual agreement provide for any recourse in the event of revocation of a .eu registration. You may also want to seek legal advice."

The issue is, of course, Brexit. With less than three months to go before the UK is supposed to eject itself from the European Union, there is still no agreed deal on the terms of separation. And while domain names are a long way down the list of priorities, the growing likelihood of a no-deal withdrawal means that all .eu domains run by UK citizens or UK companies without a presence in the EU will become defunct.

You read that right. Dot-EU domains cannot be bought or renewed after Brexit by organizations nor people located outside the union, which means UK-based folks will be unable to hold onto their .eu domains.

And even if there is a deal, it remains highly likely that .eu domains owned by UK citizens will be forcibly shuttered after Euro bureaucrats surprised everyone last year by announcing they would go against long-standing industry practice and actively remove .eu domains – and related websites – from the registry if they had been registered by UK citizens.

Despite an outcry over the completely unnecessary hard line – the current registry operator Eurid wasn't even informed of the new policy before it was publicly announced – European officials remain unmoved and recently announced a new governance approach for the .eu registry. It has refused to budge on the deletion of UK-owned .eu domains.
Where now?

Although the DCMS suggests that current .eu domain holders get legal advice, it's hard to see what recourse they would have: Like every registry, .eu is run by a contract that gives the operator significant rights to decide what names sit in its registry. The situation is a little more complicated in that the rules are decided by the European Commission and then the operator – which won a contract to run .eu – is obliged to follow them.

The decision to create a new "multi-stakeholder group to advise the Commission on the implementation of the rules," is one indication that people were not very impressed with the bureaucrats' sudden and unexpected diktat.

It is possible that that new group could advise the Commission to reverse its hasty decision to cut off existing domain name holders. But that is very unlikely with a no-deal Brexit and even if the UK political establishment does manage to function sufficiently to avoid that cliff edge, it would still be a struggle.

The EU's decision is a bad one: It has long been industry practice not to actively remove domain names from the internet and any damage to the .eu registry of Brits owning .eu domains just because the UK is outside the union is so small as to be negligible.

But more fundamentally, UK citizens represent a significant proportion of .eu domain holders – 273,000 domains making up 10 per cent of the registry – and that means that the EU will be actively undercutting its own revenues.

The UK government's decision to recommend dotcom domains ahead of its own .uk domains has also raised eyebrows. Almost as if civil servants don't understand anything about the internet.

It is also going to be much harder for .eu domain holders to find their .com or .uk equivalents: while the .eu registry has a healthy 3.75m names, the .uk registry has nearly 12 million and .com has nearly 140 million.

In short, it's a bad deal for everyone, everyone knows it, there are other better options, yet for some reason politicians and bureaucrats are insisting on continuing to rush headlong off a cliff. ®

bellinisurge · 07/01/2019 21:16

Yvette Cooper explains the amendment
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/07/no-deal-brexit-uk-parliament?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

RedToothBrush · 07/01/2019 21:37

amp.ft.com/content/d05498f6-1299-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e?__twitter_impression=true
Six-day queues into Dover feared under no-deal Brexit scenario
Government-ordered research finds just 80-second customs checks would mean permanent gridlock

A summary of the analysis obtained by the Financial Times claims extra processing time of 80 seconds per truck would lead to “no recovery” — described by an official as widespread permanent gridlock.

The research, carried out by academics at University College London for the Department for Transport, will add to misgivings about the potential disruption of a disorderly exit from the EU. The research was presented to ministers in 2017 but never published.

FABULOUS!

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jasjas1973 · 07/01/2019 21:46

Imperial College London, did similarstudy in conjunction with BBC back in the spring, it was published but like anything negative in regard to Brexit dismissed as project fear.

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