WA or No Deal?

[bellinisurge]

Asked this on a few Brexit threads and didn't get an answer so asking it separately.
Bored of listening to bad winners whining about Juncker and evil EU and all that tedious bollocks. It's come down to this binary question and which is it.
As someone who voted Remain, I prefer shit deal over no Deal.
No Deal would be a humanitarian catastrophe.
Which is it for you?

"I am more than happy to leave without a deal. We will not have to pay the EU any more money and can trade on WTO rules. "

Does that mean never bothering to get any trade deals in future?

Without WA, If any trade deals were discussed, the partners would know UK was unreliable, do not trust. Why would Nigeria-India-USA-SKorea-Japan-EU conclude anything else about deals with UK given how we didn't meet EU commitments. EU won't trust us to maintain product standards, while India & Australia both want visa relaxation. Maybe Aus/India will demand minimum number of extra visas before opening their markets to UK. Wouldn't you do that if you were them, dealing with such an untrustworthy partner?

{"I am more than happy to leave without a deal. We will not have to pay the EU any more money and can trade on WTO rules. "}
The UK is only 'big' because it is standing on the shoulders of the EU. Practically all the 'Empire' is gone and the UK is just a small island.
Through being part of the EU it punches above it's weight but over the last 30 years or so, China and India among others have developed, partly bypassing some of the old legacy stuff that the UK had and simply using 'modern' techniques.
There are mobile phones all across Africa, they largely bypasses the copper cables connecting phones to peoples houses and went straight to mobiles.
It may be an odd way of looking at it but WW2 helped Germany in many ways (apart from many millions killed of course) in that the allies destroyed a third of German houses and most of their railway and much of their road network. They had to rebuild much from scratch, but with the many technical developments what was built was much better than before the war. Britain in contrast put sticking plasters on the broken bits and carried on with worn out trains and road networks.

Trading on WTO presumably means paying EU tariffs that we wouldn’t have otherwise paid. I wonder how the cost of that stacks up against the cost of EU membership minus the gains of said membership.

You’re wondering this now? You didn’t figure it out before you voted?

{ I wonder how the cost of that stacks up against the cost of EU membership minus the gains of said membership.}
There is an inherent problem with 'simple' balance sheet claims of 'worth'. The government drastically slashed the BBC world service funding (It used to come from the Home Office budget I think).
Since WW2 the BBC World service was renowned as one of the 'best' and most neutral reporting of world events and trusted. It's remit was different to the domestic radio and TV charter.
By cutting the WS budget and its coverage of world issues it considerably damaged the standing of the UK as a voice of reason. The amount it cost to run was minimal compared to the 'diplomatic' effects that the home and foreign offices attempted to have across the world. In my view another case of chucking baby out with bathwater. Knowing the price of everything but the value of none.

I don't for one minute think that Nigel Farage cares about any of us. I do, however, think he cares about getting us out of the EU.

And of course we are trustworthy. We voted to leave and we are leaving. How does that make us untrustworthy?
We can and will make trade deals. We are a member of the WTO so will trade on those terms.

Maybe things will be more expensive for a while, but, as I keep saying, this is not about money, economics, jobs, trade.
What is important for me is to be free of the EU, the ECJ, and MEPs and the annual cost. I know others think it is worth it, but I don't.

{We can and will make trade deals. We are a member of the WTO so will trade on those terms.}
If you say so.
Out of interest, how much (what percentage) rise in the costs of food and other goods are you envisioning?
1%, 5%, 10%, 15%?
What scale of redundancies do you see when various industries pack up and leave.
500,000, 1 Million, 2 Million?
What new, well paying activities is the UK going to 'create' to make up for the losses?

If we No Deal we are unilaterally tearing up the Good Friday Agreement. Which makes us the kind of country that unilaterally tears up Binding international agreements we don't like. Not exactly showing ourselves as trustworthy in Deal making.

Maybe things will be more expensive for a while, but, as I keep saying, this is not about money, economics, jobs, trade

Big words until you can't pay your rent, mortgage, food, fuel etc etc what price would you pay? what about your job? OR are you well off, have savings so can fend off an 18 month recession?

Few can but i'm sure they'll thank you regardless.

I agree @jasjas1973 "hurt feelings " are not going to feed anyone.

Out of interest, how much (what percentage) rise in the costs of food and other goods are you envisioning?
1%, 5%, 10%, 15%?
What scale of redundancies do you see when various industries pack up and leave.
500,000, 1 Million, 2 Million?

Also, how long is the "for a while" that we'll be experiencing hardship, until the universe comes to its senses, realises how awesomely amazing we are, and showers us with well-deserved adulation and wealth?
1 month, 1 year, 10 years, 100 years?

We are a member of the WTO so will trade on those terms.

And the UK would be the only country in the world trading on WTO only.

Well done.

Trading on WTO terms means that other countries MUST charge us the same tariffs that they charge to all countries they don't have trade deals with. UK exports will have to be hammered.

Coppersulphate I actually have enough money in the bank to weather an 18 month recession. Or a 3 year one. Even if I lose my job tomorrow and if food prices go up 20%.

I still don't want it to happen, because so many people will go under completely. 'I'm alright Jack' really doesn't cut it.

I didn't say "I'm all right Jack".
I said this is not about money. I am not stupid and I realise we may/will have a rocky road for a while (and, no, I cannot see into the future and I don't know how long "for a while" is).

It's about how I feel about this country. It is more fundamental than money.
I don't want the UK to be part of the EU. I voted to leave.
I would have accepted the result if Remain had won.

Surely that coppersulphate post was a wind up? My irony meter is on red. No one could possibly shoehorn so many Brexit bingo bulletpoints into a single post with a straight face.

Ah cross post, seems it was entirely serious.

The search for intelligent life on planet Brexit goes on.

Well, Coppersulphate you may not be stupid, but if you are OK with tens of thousands of people at a conservative estimate finding life even harder than they do already, if you are OK with shortages of food and medication, if you are OK with insulin dependent people dying because the insulin they need cannot be brought into the UK in a timely fashion - then there are other words for what you are.

We can and will make trade deals.

Not while we’re stuck in the backstop for many years while the FTA is negotiated. Up to 8 years, maybe more.

The UK-wide backstop is a barebones customs union where UK has no say over anything including trade deals.

May blithely claims the backstop won’t be required as she deludedly believes FTAs can deliver customs-free frictionless trade.

I agree tatiana, I prefer no deal. Clean break.

{Not while we’re stuck in the backstop for many years while the FTA is negotiated. Up to 8 years, maybe more.}
Are you seriously suggesting you are happy to be paying between 10 and 20% more for everything for the 8 years or so while some of the trade deals are negotiated? At a time when a large chunk of manufacturing will have left the UK with maybe 2 million unemployed?
A 'clean break' is not what it sounds, it actually implies that next to NO trade will happen for months.
A 'no deal' situation will be everything bad happening at once. 2008 banking crisis was bad, but it was 'only' the banks, not rewriting laws and a million and one other pieces of everyday life. If you have your own house, mortgage free and a few hundred thousand in the bank and a job that won't fire you then you will be laughing (apart from the loss of quite a bit of the money).

Funny how "can't see into the future" is used defensively when asked for specifics, entirely unironically, with "there will be Great trade deals" and "it will turn out fiiiiiiiiinnnneee"

I did not use the phrase "can't see into the future" defensively. I used it factually. I cannot see into the future anymore than you can.
You are making gloomy predictions about what will happen so I assume you can see the future.

Nor did I mention "Great trade deals".
I am not at all defensive. I am overjoyed that, at long last we will be out of the EU.

So @Coppersulphate WA or No Deal to leave the EU?

Coppersulph already said she wants No Deal.
Shackle swap, then.
Elected MEPs for faceless appointed officials of WTO
ECJ for "unfair" dispute process of WTO
£EU membership swapped for WTO membership fees, no passporting & divergent complicated regulatory regimes (multiple) to abide by.

Is that right? 7.6mln CHF as UK WTO contrib, which is 5.97 mln £. I think.

Wow, there are A LOT of recent articles out there about the WTO needing to be saved, could come crashing down.

CopperSulph, previously wrote #Gove for PM in another thread. Do you no longer want Govey and now Farage is your man? Gove is strongly endorsing WA.

I cannot see into the future anymore than you can.

coppersulhate. Do you never make a plan? Book a holiday? Buy Christmas and birthday presents ahead of time? All those things require you to "look into the future".

Every time you look forward to Brexit you are seeing into the future. You can do this because you can be reasonably certain that Brexit will happen and that it will occur on a fixed future date.

Likewise it's perfectly possible to inform yourself about the regulatory regime that will be in force in either of the two no Brexit scenarios. You might call this looking into the future, but I call it listening to experts.

Interestingly, Mr Gove - are you still a fan? - has belatedly come round to the position that, indeed, some future events can be foreseen with considerably accuracy - like 40% tariffs being slapped on UK meat exports. He's backing the WA as a result...