Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

Headlines on R4 this morning. All about the refugees and Javids hard line and the US Ambassador campaigning for a hard Brexit.

I’m listening to the US ambassador right now. Apparently we’re all being too negative and not acknowledging Trump as a great visionary and Brexit as a wonderful opportunity

I saw 'Refugees welcome' banners in a small seaside town in Wales year before last, they were quite prominently displayed on a Church in the centre of the town.

As for the man suggesting letting children drown, I wonder how many hours he has spent at sea ? Because I don't know anyone who has spent any time at sea ( either working or as a hobby )who would not go to the aid of anyone in trouble, if they could be of help.

The Radio 4 interviewer didn't challenge the US Ambassador. Apparently if the UK did the right things (not TM's Withdrawal deal) then it could get a "massive trade deal" with the US. Not a single question about what things the UK would need to do (vast reduction in food and environmental standards, for instance). Apparently the US would then use this as a model in dealing with other countries.

mybrainhurtsalot and swedish - some really stuff going on with Seaborne.

Funny that Ben Sharp of Albany Shipping (which shares the director John Edmund Paul Sharp plus others with Seaborne) has suddenly deleted all his tweets from @bensharp1966 after it was highlighted as being extremely pro Leave?

The Hunt piece was saying how the plan is to reduce taxes, which will automatically mean reduced services. Singapore is about the size of greater Manchester if I remember correctly. It is never cold so the poor can literally sleep on the streets and won't die of hypothermia. There are some very strict laws too. I can't remember if it is one of the countries that has capital punishment for drugs offenses but dropping chewing gum on the street can get you a $500 fine.
Last summer the port at Ouistreham (ferry to the UK part) had a single 8 foot wire fence. Now it is a triple 10 foot fence with rolls of razor wire on 2 of the fences. I am not sure if it is a written rule but anyone at sea, seeing someone in distress would go to assist.

frumpety interesting about the Refugees welcome banners on a Welsh church. Perhaps churches feel they can do this, but I don’t think local councils would.

‘Crisis’ though? What about Lampedusa, a tiny island with a population of 6,000:

On the arid Italian island of Lampedusa, known as the “door of Europe”, 400,000 migrants have arrived by way of the Mediterranean sea in just the past two decades.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/film/2018/jun/18/hbo-it-will-be-chaos-migration-lampedusa-italy-refugee-crisis

Letting them drown... WTF? And looking at Katie Hopkins’ twitter (which I do not advise) is making me not like some of the people of this country very much. We probably shouldn’t have a 2nd ref if this type of thinking is common. Just get some proper grown-ups to decide the whole thing. The people can’t be trusted.

Leclerc but the Mails campaign to get people to volunteer in the NHS should plug any funding gaps if services are reduced

frumpety
So you fancy the idea of the now redundant high street butcher putting a few hours in at the local hospital as he has 'experience' and tools?

Twitter linked to this Facebook post from October regarding Seaborne and its business plans:

m.facebook.com/groups/963579693754088?view=permalink&id=1694475693997814

The Seaborne fiasco shows just how good we are at getting ready for No Deal.
I am still of the view that the grown ups amongst MPs on both sides will make sure we don't crash out.
However, my discreet personal prepping continues . These days, the only person I trust to keep my family fed and warm is me (and dh now he has come around to it). Hope for the best; prepare for the worst.

The stuff on that facebook link is incredible.
The 4 'likely' ships are in Italy and would need refitting to comply with cross channel regulations. Surely it would take a week just to sail them up to the UK, never mind where they might need to go for refitting/upgrading.
I wonder what other 'great value' deals the government have been making.

I am not sure that Parliament has any grown ups any more. They should have stopped this nonsense at least a year ago.

Brexiters often use Singapore of an example of how the UK can thrive outside the EU,
BUT

U.K. Can’t Use Singapore as Post-Brexit Model, [Singapore] Premier Lee Says

"Britain has developed a system of state welfare, of government role in the system where the government accounts for 40 to 45 percent of the GDP.

The Singapore government accounts for 16 percent of the GDP, maybe 17 percent.

So to say that you’re going to be like Singapore, are you going to give up two-thirds of your government spending, state pensions and national health?"

@Peregrina , I think Yvette Cooper is a grown up. I think there are enough MPs like her.
I even think TM is a grown up who is letting the children bounce about and get tired before the adults step in and stop things going insane with a crash out.

I've been the link person for many years between our church and the local Refugee Day Centre (just down the road from the main HO immigration centre).

The centre receives no public funding (it used to, but this was cut off a couple of years ago) and as usual is staffed by wonderfully selfless volunteers who give so much time and energy to keep the centre open, and runs solely on donations. Whenever I go there, the place is packed. Up to September this year, they saw 665 new people, including 209 children. Many of these people understandably have mental health issues (depression, PTSD) and the centre spends a huge amount of time dealing with the appropriate authorities on their behalf, as well as such seemingly simple things as opening a bank account.

Getting support for such people from the HO is a nightmare. You end up having to prove that someone is destitute before you can get even Sec 4 support. One person's application for asylum was rejected and he ended sleeping in bus stations, on hospital waiting room floors and in shop doorways, going from one charity to another for meals and the odd hand out; all the time, his mental health was deteriorating. Finally, a solicitor helped pro bono to file a second application. The centre had to help with train fares to Liverpool, as you can only make an application in person.

There are so many cases like this, so anyone who thinks refugees come here because we're a soft touch is (intentionally?) deluding themselves.

It was mentioned upstream that Nigeria is bottom of the equal wealth distribution table. Interestingly, in the last report:

"As well as New Arrivals we have a steady stream of families who have been in the UK for a year or more but have become homeless due to a change in immigration status or domestic violence. The vast majority of these (usually a single mother and children) are originally from Nigeria."

The chap who runs the centre is the most dedicated, knowledgeable and selfless person I've ever met. He more than anyone would deserve public recognition, unlike Redwood who gets it for being a selfish idiot .

Just get some proper grown-ups to decide the whole thing. The people can’t be trusted.

Agree.

Delurking to post this link My city swansea.cityofsanctuary.org/
Local businesses often display refugees welcome signs

To be fair, I like(d ???) the UKs low-key approach to flags in public life. My DB has just bought a property in the US, and one of the selling points was the size of the flagpole in the front yard.

Always struck me that the more flags a country needs to parade everywhere, the more insecure the inmates must be.

And I am definitely happy that we don't feel the need to have a picture of Theresa May in every government office.

Apparently if the UK did the right things (not TM's Withdrawal deal) then it could get a "massive trade deal" with the US. Not a single question about what things the UK would need to do (vast reduction in food and environmental standards, for instance). Apparently the US would then use this as a model in dealing with other countries.

The Remain camp has to make it clear that this will smash the NHS. Do people really want that? It's already being privatised by stealth and people aren't happy.

There are so many cases like this, so anyone who thinks refugees come here because we're a soft touch is (intentionally?) deluding themselves.

Yes, I have some friends who work with asylum seekers and it's the same story: applications to stay refused, appeals, eventually after a lot of hassle and expense being allowed to stay. All people too, who could make a valuable contribution to society.

Do people really want that?

If it means less then DAMN YES !

It's already being privatised by stealth and people aren't happy.

A few more news stories of vulnerable children in life threatening situations might solve that. Wetherspoons could run a promotion of free pint for every washed up corpse ?

Or is the Rossetti wit a little too dark. If so, I apologise ... maybe seeing "Frankie Boyles New World Order" last night rubbed off

{There are so many cases like this, so anyone who thinks refugees come here because we're a soft touch is (intentionally?) deluding themselves.}
It would seem that the 'hostile environment' that Mrs May instigated is failing in it's promotional literature as there are still many who are prepared to travel a couple of thousand miles across land and sea to get to the UK. Maybe pictures of what happens to refugees when they get into the UK detention centres should be sent as a leaflet drop.
I was going to say something more extreme but I think that 'title' should stay with DGR.
Meanwhile, hats off and great respect to all on here are doing so much to help others. That hundred Million 'wasted?' on fictional ships could have gone a long way in the hands of Mrsr8 and others like her who no doubt spend wisely making all donations really count.

It would seem that the 'hostile environment' that Mrs May instigated is failing in it's promotional literature as there are still many who are prepared to travel a couple of thousand miles across land and sea to get to the UK.

I think you've misunderstood who the message is aimed at. It's not aimed at people thousands of miles away. It's aimed dead-square at the Great British Public. And if people are phoning up radio stations and being allowed to call for children to drown ... well, I hope there's a civil servant quietly nursing a hard-on New Years Honour in respect of a Job Well Done.

The other way to make the UK seem hostile to immigrants, of course, is to treat our own poor and vulnerable so appallingly, that it's clear what will happen to anyone who dares turn up poor and vulnerable.

And there, too, I'd say, Job Well Done.