Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

May's hostile environment won't work as a deterrent to those fleeing from e.g. Syrian / Saudi / IS and mass murder / slavery / rape

Even on this issue, the govt is squabbling with itself - telling one cabinet minister they are advocating an act of war :

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/30/uk-and-france-pledge-drive-to-tackle-people-smuggling-in-channel

At the weekend the defence secretary, Gavin Williamson,^offered to deploy the navy to deal with the small boats trying to cross the Channel.

He told the Sunday Telegraph: “We have not had any requests as yet, but if the Home Office is in need of armed forces support then our navy, air force and army stand ready to assist.”

A government source said:
“I wonder if he realises that if they strayed into French waters it would be an act of war?”

May's hostile environment won't work as a deterrent to those fleeing from e.g. Syrian / Saudi / IS and mass murder / slavery / rape

It's not intended to.

The problem with lying - and administrations that lie - is you need to remember what lies you've told who.

Who remembers the minister being grilled over PIP stating that the number of claimants hadn't been reduced, and needing a nudge to suddenly remember that wasn't the official reason for PIPs introduction ?

Remember the Cameron crackdown on benefits for the under 25s ? It was aimed squarely at UK citizens first. Any EU citizens it affected would have been an added bonus.

Thanks Red. Just marking place. Don't have the energy to think about predictions just now.

re lies - Maybe useful to review the worries that Brexiter MEP Danial Hannan was ridiculing before the 2016 Ref:

what he ridiculed THEN has been govt policy for many months: 😡

• Leaving Single Market
• Changing status of E27 citizens living in the UK

Oh, predictions ...

Maybe at some crunch point soon, the Queen will go political, step in, and make a speech where she points out - for clarity - that every law passed since 1973 has required her signature, and she's not aware of having lost any sovereignty (personally I'd like to see her end it with come and have a go if you think you're hard enough ). She'd then dissolve parliament, and not only cease being Queen, but suggest the time has come for the UK to become a republic - thus ensuring we don't see Charles III

Only fantasy, I know, but I somehow like the idea of Farage, Johnson, Rees-Moog, et al going on TV and telling us how wrong the Queen is about sovereignty ...

Is envisaging the death of the Monarch still treason ?

@DGRossetti , I think the Queen's Speech was about as close as she could get. Instead of "look at pretty children" and "good works", there was a lot of regal Calm The Fuck Down.

{ She'd then dissolve parliament, }
I read a different meaning into this. HNO3

@DGRossetti , I think the Queen's Speech was about as close as she could get. Instead of "look at pretty children" and "good works", there was a lot of regal Calm The Fuck Down.

Sadly for her Madge, this was my takeaway memory. Maybe, like HMV, her time - or the monarchys - has come ? Bearing in mind, a United Ireland would be a republic - so any Northern Ireland on unification is also a vote for republicanism ...

I'm a weak republican. Previously, I might have been sold on keeping the Monarchy as the final backstop in a delicate political framework which prevented the horrors of extremism. But given it's currently woefully failing in that regard (unless it should be normal for people to openly wish drowned children to wash up on British shores on public radio) then what's the point of them ?

Giving her patronising "let's all play nicely speech" whilst (almost ostentatiously) seated in front of a piano that sold at auction could probably put a roof over every homeless person in the UK for a night did fuck all to endear her to me. To be honest, it would have been crass of Trump.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-46720323
Woody Johnson on Brexit and US trade deal.

Trump doesn't like TM's Brexit deal, essentially seeks to influence policy in a foreign sovereign state.

but, but .... where's the fuss from Breixters about interferance from a foreign head of state,
like their outrage when Obama said we'd be back of the queue

It can't be that the US president is only foreign if black

Trump doesn't like TM's Brexit deal, essentially seeks to influence policy in a foreign sovereign state.

And the UK doesn't ?

Woody Johnson {He added it could be "the precursor of future trade deals with other countries }
And I am the queen of Sheba!

A couple of years ago the Economist had as its cover caption
Let them in and let them work
Stopping refugees and asylum seekers from supporting themselves
is insane
especially the ones who are medics when the NHS needs medics
they could work supervised. Who cares. They would be earning, paying tax, integrating and helping the needy British born.

May is such a nasty petty racist xenophobe
she caused the Brexit vote by her actions since 2010 at the Home Office
that needs to be carved in big letters

The US is a dying empire, anyway. It only wants to rope the UK in as (a) we've been there before and (b) misery loves company.

It's China and India we should be beating a door to.

India will never be an economic power house because its land ownership and local tax rules preclude foreign investment in most areas

China has the mother of all demographic time bombs coming its way within 30 years

The USA will recover from Trump

Not sure how the UK will recover from Brexit

India will never be an economic power house because its land ownership and local tax rules preclude foreign investment in most areas

Are they set in stone ? One of the hallmarks of the Brexit debacle (coz it ain't a debate) has been the lazy thinking (on both sides) of people who somehow think things "now" are (a) as they have always been and (b) as they will always be. Like the idiot upthread who lectured us on what countries in the EU in a few years will be doing. The EU of the future is not necessarily the EU of now. In fact, the departure of the UK makes that a given. I suspect the future EU is going to be an even tighter bloc with more power and less need to compromise. Even as I type there are thoughts that the UKs needless and senseless departure is the dawn of a new age of Europe.

I see no inherent reason why India could not make the changes needed to become a world economic powerhouse in a few short years. My DGF (born: Darjeeling) always felt that once Britain had left (there's a pattern developing here ?) India had that potential. It was one of the reasons he'd hate Farage, and called himself "Indian" over "British" - even when the family returned to Britain.

Let's put it simply: Countries most likely to go to the moon in 2019 could include India and China alongside the US. No EU. And you should save your dignity if you are going to suggest the UK should be in there .....

Well, yes, the EU is a continental power and that's how leavers see it but it needn't be and I think it was a self fulfilling prophecy. What a waste of opportunity for the UK. I think there was a great place in the world for a European Britain (sigh)

Predictions. The WA getting through. People realising too late that the WA is not a deal, it's a withdrawal agreement.

UK economy declining further.

More austerity.

Nothing being sorted for the end of transition. UK refusing to align itself with EU standards. More arguments about the backstop. NI becoming a separate entity of some sort.

UK economy declining even further.

And more austerity.

National socialism.

{The WA getting through. People realising too late that the WA is not a deal, it's a withdrawal agreement.}

I think this is precisely what is wrong. On the basis that the WA is passed on or by 29 March the real NEGOTIATING work really starts then.
The good news (for somebody) is that you have the likelihood of great deals being struck by the government who have just lashed out on ferries that don't exist (in a useable form).

The reason Trump doesn't like WA is because it gives the UK a fighting chance of negotiating a slightly less shit deal with the EU . Which means we don't totally tank as an economy. Which means we'll have a fighting chance of negotiating a deal with the US that suits us a bit less badly. He's a disaster capitalist too.

Putin wishing the UK a 'Happy Brexit' is a bit sinister too.
Did the UK get a similar greeting from Uganda?