Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

From memory.. to implement the WA she needs a vote. If she could do it without the backing of MPs she would have just cracked on with it with God's vicar's daughter guidance. Obvs if she wants no deal she doesn't need any vote.

For sure she needs a vote to get home with the WA, I am querying whether she can unilaterally revoke Art 50 without the approval of Parliament? An extension can only go ahead with the approval of the EU and that is really only likely if we are going to have a PV. They certainly won't renegotiate. May's only real parachute if she panics before a no deal is to revoke and if she needs Parliament, the politics and the arithmetic matter. Corbyn could play silly buggers to cause a Tory meltdown. The national interest would come a long way second by a country mile (I speak as a Labour party member hanging on by my fingertips).

From memory.. to implement the WA she needs a vote.

Well if she's not got any intention of honouring the WA anyway, maybe this is all show, and she never had any intention of putting it to a vote. It wouldn't surprise me, since the HoC has shown how pathetic it is.

I think she has to have a vote for WA but can revoke without one.
In my sad little fantasy she delays the vote again to the point when, rather than crash out, she revokes. And takes the consequences.
Maybe she is a scheming Remainer after all .
In reality I think WA will get through or Parliament will force revoke/people's vote/some scheme to buy time that I can't see right now.

Let's just leave it that I would not be surprised if no vote gets held on the WA at all.

If that were to be the case; assuming it becomes clear in some practicably meaningful time before March 29th; what are the options - if any - to parliament ?

(I'm in a fighting predictions mood, having scored £5 from bet me last month, that China would not outdo the US in a space mission within 6 months )

Just delaying anything is gradually hammering the last nails into the coffin of industry (manufacturing and financial).
Whatever she and the Tories may have 'won' won't be worth having.

DG The WA would have to be ratified by Parliament and the necessary enabling legislation afterwards would have to be passed too.
If she could use Henry VIII and just proclaim "let it be so", I'm sure she would have by now.

Yes, bellini To Revoke can be done by the PM alone, with a brief letter to the EU Commission

• and thus the HoC doesn't know, even if it wished to, how to force how to do so

I think an application to extend can also be issued by the PM alone.

However, the WA counts as an international treaty, so the HoC has to pass that

DG if the WA isn't passed, then

either the PM Revokes - possibly if the HoC is able legally to force her
or there is a PV - with extension from the EU - again maybe the HoC needs / can force this through
or it's automatically No Deal

My concern / doubt about the HoC being able to force the PM to do anything is that noone with any legal knowledge has yet explained exactly how they can do anything that is legally binding upon her.
the HoC don't kno how to enforce their will, even if they decide on a majority will.

With only 12 weeks to go, that's v little time to find a way
and then possibly also go through the legal appeals process if May tries to resist

So the (legally) clearest ending is sadly No Deal
Otherwise, maybe hope May blinks on 29 March and revokes.

BCF

I know that the WA needs to be voted through to become law.

My question is what would the situation be if the WA never got put to a vote, and so A50 simply rolls into March 29th ?

Is it possible for Theresa May to simply do nothing and let the UK crash out ?

I appreciate there might be all sorts of "that would never happen ..." cries from some, but I'm not asking about the likelihood. I'm, asking if it could happen ?

She could roll it over into crash out but she would face mass resignations of the Tory whip and a cross party parliamentary action to stop it.

Regarding medications, I have a prescription for a particular type of antihistamine eyedrop that I’ve not been able to source since June. The pharmacists I have asked have said it’s somehow due to Brexit - but I’m not sure how this is the case already??? They have phoned round other pharmacists while I have waited, but to no avail so far.
I’m lucky that this isn’t in any way an essential medication - just a convenience as it works better for me than other types of drops.

She could roll it over into crash out but she would face mass resignations of the Tory whip and a cross party parliamentary action to stop it.

I am assuming she's quite happy for that to happen. She can't now be removed (thanks to the moronic ERG and their pathetic little "coup") so what's to stop her just putting a vote off until there's no vote to be had ?

It might be her tactic for Revoke. Or maybe I am still dreaming.

The pharmacists I have asked have said it’s somehow due to Brexit - but I’m not sure how this is the case already???

A considerable number of UK based manufacturers have been forced to pay considerably more than they had budgeted for since 2016, as licensing fees are paid in dollars. As multi year budgets are rolling around, they are simply stopping the UK manufacture.

I am sure there have been some posters on here who have been unable to get certain medicines since 2016.

Thanks DGR that makes sense.

“It might be her tactic for Revoke. Or maybe I am still dreaming”

It might be the only way she gets to completely wrongfoot the Labour and LibDem parties and to shut up once and for all the Redwoods/Rees-Moggs in her party whilst simultaneously ruining their chances of ever pulling a stunt like this again.

If she did Revoke there'd be a lot of noise and may well be consequences more than noise. A lot of people (still the majority?) are still trotting out "Leave Means Leave".
It would be a "brave" decision to go against that.
Is it wine o'clock yet?

{Is it wine o'clock yet?}
It's always 'wine o'clock' somewhere on the internet

Just don't drive or use dangerous machinery.

Is it wine o'clock yet

I wish, I always do dry January. This year is already proving tough (and I cheated and drank on New Year’s Day )

It’s dark here, has been since 3.30pm it’s definitely wine o ‘clock !

If TM does rovoke I will also be £10 up after a bet with my Dad , a pessimistic remainer he feels he wins either way!

As Parliament had to vote to enable Art 50 (wresting back control courtesy of Gina Miller), it is arguable that they would also have to endorse a revocation. Does anyone know what the prevailing view is?

No one knows. There is a court case in progress to establish this.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will"
www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-may-brexit-vote-gaming
Theresa May's Team Think She Will Lose The Looming Brexit Vote And Is Gaming What To Do Next

One Downing Street insider said they would put the deal to MPs as many times as it takes to secure a majority. Other senior Tories want her to delay the vote again.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Senior ministers are urging May to set a departure date soon after March 29th to convince rebels a new leader can take over the next stage of Brexit negotiations. A cabinet minister has discussed the idea with Gavin Barwell.

The ERG has held several conference calls this week. They reckon 40 of their MPs will always vote against the deal and the DUP will not back down. Putting on a Northern Irish accent, a senior member of the ERG told BuzzFeed News: “No surrender"

Brexiteers are talking about a "no deal by stealth". Interestingly they increasingly think May prefers no deal to a second referendum or election if she fails to get her deal through...

Big fight coming if/when May gets anything back from Brussels. Labour will force publication of new govt legal advice, which Brexiteers say will "sink" any assurances. ERG plans to compare a letter from the EU to Chamberlain’s agreement with Hitler

May's team confident they will win any confidence vote brought by Labour if they lose/delay the meaningful vote