Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

{The UK govt wants Licence to dither .... and then to leave without backstop.}
Thus causing maximum disruption and chaos in the EU. It would still sit quite easily with a Putin/Trump 'plan' to disrupt and inconvenience the EU as much as possible.
This is EXACTLY why the UK must not be allowed to delay things further.
Business needed to know from 2 years ago where things are headed, they are still being toyed with, unless they have actually disclosed and are being kept silent by the NDAs. At least BoJo is managing to keep his word.

It is of course in the UK's interests to get a move on with negotiations during which EU based companies will develop their plans for either staying in the UK or departing

Once we leave, EU companies are not going to stay here in anycase, with any forthcoming global slowdown, significant investment in a non EU country isn't going to happen.
Is PSA going to close a plant in France but invest in a UK one? or Airbus in the UK but not in Toulouse? sure current product lines will continue but in years to come, it can't happen.

Misti At these stakes, with No Deal being so serious for several EU countries,
the final date may be indeed 29 March - the EU would accept considerable inconvenience rather than this
and certainly a request to Revoke is valid even in the last few minutes

Hoever, for the collective blood pressure of Westministenders and the worry of so many millions, I certainly hope the politicians finally put their big person pants on and choose an option.

If the WA is signed, I don't expect additional foreign investment, except probably for firms catering largely only to the UK market.
However, firms would stay long enough to get the maximum possible use of existing investment, at least for the transition period.

If No Deal happens, some foreign - and uk - firms may not be able to produce and sell goods at a profit,
in which case they might abandon even current investment / manufacturing plants

• and possibly sue the UK under international treaties which protect certain foreign investers.

BMW (IIRC) is set to open a big plant in China in about 3 years time, waiting for some Chinese legislation to be finalised.
There is the supposition that working under WTO rules China and India will be great places for the UK to do business with. Unless you are a seriously large company with very good lawyers, trading in China is I believe VERY hard as they have a tendency to follow a different set of rules, meaning that it is very possible you may not get paid or that your 'product' will be copied so you lose out completely.
It is possible to trade of course but the 'overheads' can be massive.

The Simon Wiesenthal Center includes "Jeremy Corbyn-led British Labour Party in its 2018 global worst anti-Semitic events 😳

http://www.wiesenthal.com/site/apps/nlnet/content.aspx?c=lsKWLbPJLnF&b=8776547&ct=15022765&notoc=1

It is irrelevant because there is no possibility that the EU wouldn't approve an extension if the WA is approved, even if requested in March.

What you actually said was A possible extension after the WA is irrelevant not ‘after the WA is approved’.

I was responding to the former.

EU rules out renegotiating Brexit deal (again)

This is embarassing us
The EU will work at the last minute if need be, if the UK has finally chosen WA or Revoke
BUT they will not renegotiate the WA

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/01/03/uk/brexit-negotiations-rejected-intl/index.html?twitterr_impression=true

Several British lawmakers continue to argue that the EU will want to avoid a so-called "no deal" outcome, and could be forced into changes if the UK's Parliament refuses to back the deal on the country's scheduled departure from the bloc in March.
< and "Several British lawmakers" are deluded >

But speaking in Brussels on Thursday, the European Commission's deputy chief spokesperson Mina Andreeva rejected that idea.

"For now, no further meetings are foreseen between the Commission's negotiators and the UK negotiators as negotiations have indeed been concluded,"
she said.
"We are not renegotiating what is on the table."

DD has been insisting all along that deals are often agreed at the 59th minute in the EU.
He has ignored all along that such deals are between members
and he wasted most of the A50 period by not bothering to do anything, assuming the EU would blink on 29 March
Idiot

{He has ignored all along that such deals are between members }
Exactly. The Italians have come to some 'deal' (I have not looked at what it is about) but they are members and some 'adjustments' needed making so it has been done.
The UK is leaving so it is up to the UK to do all the running.

Putin and Assad shaking hands, (SKY News) stand by for more immigrants.

Yet another example of cheating and gaming the system, rather than actually doing the hard work of genuine improvement:

Top Academy Chain Accused Of ‘Cheating’ Ofsted Inspections At Multiple Schools

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/harris-academy-chain-accused-of-cheating-ofsted-inspections-at-multiple-schoolsukk5bf410bde4b01909c809871f?guccounter=1&gucereferrerrus=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL1plZHl2SGI0MmIYW1wPTE&guceereferrercs=Pe45gkZYm-ECLLGZMXyVXQ

{The ferry company at the centre of a row over no deal Brexit planning is facing claims it used terms and conditions replicated from a takeaway delivery website.}
Professional or what?
Definitely 'or what'.

How a question is framed can significantly skew results.
The poll below doesn't fit the roughly 54:46 for remain that most polls show

Is No Deal the only "clean break" ?

However, parties commission many more private polls than ever are published
which partly explains the politicians dithering

YouGov
Dec 15 (DK Excl)

"Anything less than a clean break from ‪#EU‬ will be a betrayal of the Referendum vote"

ALL
Agree 48%
Disagree 35%

LEAVERS
Agree 78%
Disagree 11%

REMAINERS
Agree 23%
Disagree 61%

CON VOTERS
Agree 69%
Disagree 22%

LAB VOTERS
Agree 37%
Disagree 45%

Those are some horrible results for people like me who want to avoid No Deal. Good job I'm a prepper then.

Mind you, doesn't also say whether people think it is high time the 2016 referendum vote was "betrayed"
or how much they would accept their own personal standard of living to fall in order not to "betray" it.

DUP reject May's deal again after 2 days of talks

twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1080850824702685185?s=19

Wouldn't surprise me at all if she delays the vote again.

Does she have to have a vote at all ?

She's gonna look REALLY REALLY REALLY BAD if she delays again. Atm she only looks REALLY REALLY BAD. She'll get an extra really

The backstop is only an issue if you are intent on NOT negotiating properly to get a decent compromise outcome which will satisfy most of the people.
By such opposition to the backstop they are demonstrating their unwillingness to negotiate properly.

Having read that statement, it's hard to believe there are people that dim in power. Whilst I'm impressed by the "if you loved me" tack, it rather misses the point.

It's not that the EU doesn't care about Northern Ireland (I suspect it cares more than some UK politicians). It's just that it cares about the RoI more ... by dint of the RoI being a member of the EU before and after Brexit, and NI being a departing member.

Nice try Doddy.

If we take it as given that she cares not how bad she looks, does she have to have a vote ?

What was Mr Paisley seniors favorite negotiating stance?

It has been assumed in some posts above that HMG can revoke Art 50 at will even up to the 11th hour of 29th March. I saw a legal discussion that has questioned whether this could still be an executive power. As Parliament had to vote to enable Art 50 (wresting back control courtesy of Gina Miller), it is arguable that they would also have to endorse a revocation. Does anyone know what the prevailing view is?