Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

I mean the outcome as a whole - either the vote or further postponement.

If the government keep trying to defer the vote the HoC will have to step up their reported efforts to force delay/extension.

From SKY online.
{Meanwhile, dredging has begun at the Port of Ramsgate as preparations continue to get the port ready for the possibility of no deal.
Seaborne Freight, which recently received a much-criticised £13.8m government contract, is paying a Dutch dredging company to do the work.}

There's money to be made off desperate people in chaotic situations.

If it's international law, I don't think macron has a say about people being returned to france

Same as if British citizens after Brexit are refused entry to France - the French authorities can stick them on the next plane back.

It's almost as if Javid is trying to mimic Churchill's response to the siege of Sidney Street in getting overly involved in a "crisis"

The problem is that those politicians wanting delay seem still fixated on the idea of renegotiating the WA, especilly wrt the backstop.

There will be no fuurther negotiation on the WA:

The HoC needs to choose between the 3 available options:
Revoke / this WA without changes / No Deal

The EU won't extend if the intention on the uk side is to negotiate further, or to dither further

If the HoC genuinely has no majority for any option, then that is when a PV could be used to break the logjam

The EU would allow an extension for this,
although they'd be mightily pissed if the request comes in late March, after they've spent yet more money
and yes, it is real extra money and genuinely extra new customs offficers etc being recruited, not moved from elsewhere.

If the 'on the street' Europeans take the same views as Daily Fail and similar rag 'readers' then if the UK does revoke there won't be much of a welcome in future.
The 'angry' parties in Europe that are complaining about immigrants who at this time haven't actually cost Europe a significant amount, could turn their attention on Brits who have lowered the income of the average European (admittedly by a long route). We may think 'childish' but look at the comments on Daily fail 'reports'.

John Rentoul Retweeted David Herdson@DavidHerdson

The clock has virtually run out on forcing a GE before Brexit Day.

16 Jan (?) Meaningful vote (assume May loses)
17 Jan VoNC (assume carried)
1 Feb 2-week government-forming period expires (assume in failure)
15 Mar Election

And that's with no further delays at any stage.

< and what purpose would a GE have, other than wasting all the remaining time ?
It's not that either the govt or opposition have some brillient plan that has been thwarted by not having a (working) majority.

No, I suspect even (the sane bits of) Labour want a GE some months after Brexit rather than before, so the Tories get the full blame for the disaster >

and it is very doubtful that the DUP would join in the NC vote after the WA has been defeated the 1st time.

Why would they want a GE that would probably cost them their key influence in holding the balance of power in the HoC
and at least risk losing 2-3 of their seats.

If the HoC in Feb or March is logjammed, I doubt the EU would extend for a GE and more of the same dithering
They'd expect the UK to choose a PV instead, to actually deliver an outcome

The MPs quoted wrt extension discussion have been Starmer, Cooper, Umunna, Susan Elan Jones, Grieve. None of them, I think, are under any illusion that WA can be renegotiated. But I’d think it quite likely that some of the Tory backbenchers involved will be hoping for leeway on the WA which won’t happen.

Grieve has pointed out that even if the WA goes through they may need an extension to get all the relevant legislation through Parliament for a smooth Brexit.

If it doesn’t, then extension is the only option.

I feel almost sorry for the Daily Mash at the moment
they put up a joke picture
the truth turns out to be stranger

{Grieve has pointed out that even if the WA goes through they may need an extension to get all the relevant legislation through Parliament for a smooth Brexit.}
Well the naughty boys and girls should have done their homework on time and spent 2 years playing on the swings and roundabouts.
The UK alone started the A50 clock, they could at least have the decency to get on with the job.

I meant rather than spending 2 years playing.

Extension would probably be necessary to mpass the enabling legislation even if the WA were signed in January.
That would be a no-brainer for the EU to agree, though, so it's not an issue.

That's quite different to the much larger number of MPs who are vocally demanding extra time to negotiate further.

{That would be a no-brainer for the EU to agree, though, so it's not an issue.}
Yes of course, once the WA is signed the UK can take as long as it needs as the 'meter' is running, as a guess around £10Billion a year (guestimated from the £39Billion exit bill taking it to 2020).
It is of course in the UK's interests to get a move on with negotiations during which EU based companies will develop their plans for either staying in the UK or departing.

That's quite different to the much larger number of MPs who are vocally demanding extra time to negotiate further.

Which is not what I was referring to.

May to press EU leaders for Brexit concessions

They would be willing to help her with the "optics" and give flower verbal reassurances of goodwill
However,she is still asking for legally binding limits to the backstop, i.e. renegotiating terms
and both Labour & Tory MPs are demanding renegotiations.

She either doesn't understand the word "NO" or feels she must show her MPs she has tried her hardest to renegotiate.

Hunt keeps asking why they can't put verbal reassurances into legal text
Well, duh.
Verbal can be strong aspirations and aims, but if the UK dithers in transition negotiations like it has to date, then the EU doesn't want the backstop to run out.
The UK govt wants Licence to dither .... and then to leave without backstop.

https://www.ft.com/content/e3da765c-0eac-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745

She is expected to speak this week to EU leaders including German chancellor Angela Merkel, Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and European Council president Donald Tusk in an attempt to break the Brexit logjam.

Mrs May is seeking legally binding assurances that a so-called backstop plan

• intended to avoid a hard Irish border, based on proposals for a temporary UK-EU customs union - will be time-limited.

Brussels has so far refused to offer such assurances.

Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Wednesday the prime minister wanted to give MPs confidence that Britain could not be “trapped” in a customs union with the EU.

“Theresa May has been very clear:
this isn’t just about words but about text which has legal force,”

A possible extension after the WA is irrelevant to the current problem of MPs needing to choose whether to approve the WA, or trying to Revoke, or dithering until No Deal

MPs need to decide what they want and an extension will not be helpful or forthcoming for this, unless it is for a PV

Great, May can do another European round trip humiliating herself like she did before Christmas. I will enjoy that.

Given that May has form for running down the clock, the EU is hardly going to agree a time limit on the backstop.

A possible extension after the WA is irrelevant to the current problem of MPs needing to choose whether to approve the WA, or trying to Revoke, or dithering until No Deal

No it’s not because MPs have to factor in the consequences of not approving the WA - what happens next, and what happens if government trying to delay the WA further. In the latter case, extension issue becomes key.

It is irrelevant because there is no possibility that the EU wouldn't approve an extension if the WA is approved,
even if requested in March.
It is easy enough to check with Tusk or Juncker if this application - for administrative reasons - needs to be by a certain date, rather than on 29 March.

The EU will do anything reasonable like that, to avoid a No Deal, that does not involve renegotiation

What would be in more doubt is an extension that late for a PV, but it is also easy to check with the EU if there is any practical "closing date" for that.

My concern over the extension talk is that this is yet another form of displacment activity, to avoid choosing from the only available options
and to give the impression they are actually doing something

If the HoC ever decide on the options, then applying for an extension is a simple letter from the PM to the EU Commission.

They can request well in advance that this be expedited, but obtaining agreement with all 27 members may be what brings a "closing date" for an extension that is earlier than 29 March.

it is a reasonable request, imo, that the EU commisssion should organise in advance that they have agreement from all 27 in advance,
because there are only the 2 scenarios to consider for extension:
either the WA has just been approved, or PV draft legislation has been agreed in principle by the HoC.

The HoC problem is selecting an option that warrants an extension, i.e. either WA or PV, by the closing date

and of course Revoke can be by the PM - off her own bat or under HoC instruction - right up until the final hours of 29 March.

It is irrelevant because there is no possibility that the EU wouldn't approve an extension if the WA is approved,

There will be a cut off date beyond which the EU won't go though. It's not going to wait until 28/3 for the UK to blink. An extension has to be agreed, which implies a timetable that will be weeks not days.