Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

Interesting Facebook post re Seabourne Freight from 2 months ago. Sorry, too long to c&p.

m.facebook.com/groups/963579693754088?view=permalink&id=1694475693997814

Heads up folk. Check your passport expiry dates. If we go no deal you'll need at least 6 months on your passports to travel to any EU countries.

"Little porkie, there. Sign of the times, lies. Why don't you add Euthanasia and no right to own a pet?"

Why would I lie? I'm near sure the last time I tried to work out the difference between British and Irish social welfare systems, under the Irish system I'd be worse off. Will try to muddle through and work it out again, atm I get child benefit, child tax credits, working tax credits, housing benefit (only a small amount but it makes a difference), able to use nhs services, free eyecare and dental treatment, but know very little about the Irish equivalents. Someone upthread predicted 20-30 years for a border poll, I reckon it'll be sooner than that?

I predicted other countries will leave the EU, as a lot of people thought we wouldn't, thought it would never happen in a million years. But it did. And now we're doing it, it'll be easier for any other country to, for whatever reason. Millions of people are displaced all over the world because of war and famine, but no one wants to help them. Governments are just as corrupt as ever. Dictators come and go, coups happen, monarchies fall. Since Trump was elected I can't help but feel anything is possible, good and bad. These are uncertain times.

I don't think the E.U as it is, is set in stone. It wouldn't be up to the governments anyway, but the people? The people of other countries could decide to leave for similar reasons to those here (including the dubious reasons, they're racist/xenophobic and don't want the EU pushing refugees on them, or want less immigration/free movement etc).

The Brexit vote has increased support for the EU, but probably also increased the pressure for it to change in line with what ordinary people want

So, it's not fixed in stone where there is the will to evolve
Unfortunately, the Uk looks fixed into a glidepath of accelerating decline and medium term disintegration

Brexit has shown the difficulties that any lone countries face in a world that is coalescing into trade blocs

You either join one of the most powerful trading bloc - EU, USA, China - or become a vassal state of one,
like Trump wants the Uk to become.

Badkitten
If we go no deal you'll need at least 6 months on your passports to travel to any EU countries.
TBH that has been the case for Tenerife, Crete, Croatia and others for a long time.
Unenforcable but try telling the gate staff !!!!

Fits in with other EU-wide polls since the ref

Hence no realistic consolation for Brexiters that other countries will join the UK in self.harm:

www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-poll/poll-shows-support-for-eu-at-35-year-high-across-bloc-idUSKCN1IO2SP

Poll shows support for EU at 35-year high across bloc

Support for European Union membership has hit a 35-year high across the bloc, with a strong majority of citizens saying it has been a force for good in their country
....
The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament showed that
67 percent of EU citizens thought that membership had benefited their country,
the highest level since 1983.
Just 23 percent took the opposite view.

Did all the polls not predict no brexit..?

btw, the fixed concentration on the higher benefits you gain from the annual 10 billion subsidy from GB taxpayers 🤔
compared to what you would get from the RoI

just confirms my belief it is high time that NI returned to the rest of Ireland and then maybe could develop to not need just support.

That 10 billion is higher than the net annual EU contributions, which are a hell of a lot better investment for GB than a colonial relic we've somehow turned into a subsidy junkie.

Duchess The polls were basically within the margin of error and iirc 3 predicted leave.

What may also have distorted results is some judicious poll fixing by certain Leave supporters who then made hundreds of millions profit from gambling on Sterling crashing

Britain has become a laughing stock
and populist parties that previous were flirting with threatening Leave have since dumped those idea like a bucket of cold puke

Anyways, when will Brexit be considered final? How much trouble will the pound be in if, if there's no deal? How quickly and how much will trade imports and exports be affected? How much do we trade with EU countries vs non EU countries?

And random but does anybody know offhand where the UK get its oil from? Do we process it/refine it here or buy it crude?

*buy it crude and another country does all that and sends it back?

The difference is that Europeans see themselves as European AND French/German/Italian. They will not of course give up their original 'home'. The UK has always been 'the odd one out'.

Britain will either Revoke and make an embarassing return to the EU
or more likely Brexit with the inevitable decline,

which may be gradual with the WA, or cliff edge from No Deal,
but which in either case will be humilating and obvious to the rest of the EU

So with all possible outcomes, the Uk will serve as a massive warning for others not to go there.

"btw, the fixed concentration on the higher benefits you gain from the annual 10 billion subsidy from GB taxpayers 🤔"

I AM a GB taxpayer, I pay VAT, I was fully taxed on my wages pre dc and will be again once he leave school, will be paying car tax soon etc. And I was replying to being called a liar, I was probably wrong, but I wasn't lying.

If you live in ^GB, then you won't be affected by Irish benefits unless you choose to move there later.

If you average under 35k annually, then you'll probably be a net cost to the country over your lifetime.

This gives an overview of how No Deal Brexit affects many sectors:

Food prices to finance: what a no-deal Brexit could mean for Britain

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/30/food-prices-to-finance-what-a-no-deal-brexit-could-mean-for-britain

If there is no deal, Brexit becomes 'final' on 29 March 2019.
If the WA is passed, the initial suggestion is that the UK will be fully 'out' by the end of 2020.
However, since the UK has been messing around and not negotiation in a grown up manner there are suggestions that some aspects can be finalised in 2021 or whenever is agreed in the political declaration.

That's under 35k salary over your working lifetime

If ^you want predictions, then Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England has produced them:

A no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis

www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

• The UK economy could shrink by 8% in 2019

• ^GDP would take until nearly 2024 to return to current level

• Unemployment would rise to 7.5%^

• ^Inflation would rise to 6.6%

• House prices would fall by 30%^
  commercial property prices collapse by 48%.

• The pound could fall by 25%

Vveteran Leave campaigner R North (comment #200)

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87068#comment-4216339094

"If EU trade collapses and we suffer knock-on effects, < and we don't roll over non-EU deals >
the consequences could be far worse that the BoE indicates

Its basic problem is you cannot model chaos.

And if that is the result of a "no deal" Brexit,
we could end up hoping that Carney's predictions were right."

You could put your details into services.deloitte.ie/tc/ if you want to see how much your net income would be in RoI, Duchess. You'd be up on the child benefit anyway.

Anyways, when will Brexit be considered final?

Now that is a good question, and one Remainers really should now be focussing on. Watch out for all the new laws that are going to be snuck through "Because: Brexit".

Right now, I'd rather have a legally binding date whenever it may be, over a PV.

"If you live in ^GB, then you won't be affected by Irish benefits unless you choose to move there later".

Unless a border poll/Irish referendum happens anytime within the next 30 years, in which case I'll no longer be considered to be in Britain, but Ireland. Which in a lot of ways wouldn't be a bad thing, but would obviously involve a lot of adjustments, and could start a lot of trouble.

Lots of people here are applying for Irish passports, instead of renewing their British ones.

Thank you, will save that link for future reference!

LeClerc The WA allows an extension after Dec 2020

May has insisted the UK must be fully out before June 2022, the latest date of the next GE
but trade deals typically take 5-15 years

Anyway, if the uk has dithered until 2022, that means

either
the NI backstop is invoked and rUK is in the CU+most SM rules
or
the Uk walks away from the WA - and its GFA promises - and becomes an international paraiah
or

• more likely ! - there is another extension ... and another ..

i.e. vassal status until the UK probably either rejoins, or becomes an EEA 3rd pillar with EFTA rules, but on its own so it can't muck up anyone else