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Brexit

Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/12/2018 23:10

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 15:50

DG If it was over 3 years ago, did you have Brexit alongside alien invasion ?
If so, which was the more difficult to plan for ?

Brexit is not the typcial "Black Swan problem," because it's taking years and really shouldn't be a surprise now !

However, with widespread UK denial of its effects and with prepping starting too late even in EU countries and needing several years to be effective ....

maybe we can invent the sub-classification "Ugly Black Swan"

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 20/12/2018 15:54

Really sorry to hear your news quiet.Flowers

Hope things sort themselves out soon.

howabout · 20/12/2018 16:01

Bigchoc that is why the BBC pays Adam Fleming the big bucks to sift through all the political bumf on our behalf. He has colour coded binders and everything and being a fellow Glaswegian I trust his judgement, at least where it accords with mine, implicitly. Grin

Section 5 at p24 discusses beefing up port and aviation security in Ireland.

Section 14 at p39 covers the Landbridge via UK which is dependent on UK/EU26 arrangements.

AFAIK there is no mention of additional regulation along the NI border.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 16:05

misti I'm not sure bigger companies are necessarily all aware of Brexit risks.

There were statistics listed somewhere that showed an alarming number of firms of all sizes were waiting for UK govt guidance first before any real prepping.
If Brexit didn't happen, they'd have to explain to shareholders about the wasted money and hence want official cover.

I suspect the prepping of some foreign investors, like Nissan, would include drawing up the legal text of their law suit against the UK govt for damages.

iirc, under an international treaty (which the UK pushed to protect its large investors abroad)
investors can - and have - successfully sued when new govt policies in a foreign country have cost them money
Domestic ones can't.

1tisILeClerc · 20/12/2018 16:10

{iirc, under an international treaty (which the UK pushed to protect its large investors abroad)
investors can - and have - successfully sued when new govt policies in a foreign country have cost them money}
This was one of the 8 items mentioned in the recently linked 3 blokes in a pub (with only Graham!).

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 16:19

www.heraldscotland.com/news/17311344.ecj-ruling-to-revoke-article-50-rubber-stamped-by-the-highest-court-in-scotland/

ECJ ruling to revoke Article 50 rubber-stamped by the highest court in Scotland

SCOTLAND’S highest court has rubberstamped a ruling confirming MPs can halt Brexit following a year-long legal action by a group of Scottish politicians.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) found the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 – which triggered the Brexit process – without the agreement of the other 27 EU member states.

It said this must be decided following a "democratic process", after which the UK could remain a member of the EU on its current terms.

Now the Court of Session in Edinburgh has endorsed this decision, bringing an end to a year-long battle between a group of Scottish politicians and the UK Government.

Scotland's most senior judge Lord Carloway, the Lord President, said: "This court will grant a declarator which mirrors the decision of the Court of Justice of the European Union, which I think brings the proceedings to an end.”

He ruled all expenses and fees must be covered by the UK Government, with the total bill capped at £105,000.

Led by Green MSP Andy Wightman, the group of Scottish politicians included Labour MEPs Catherine Stihler and David Martin, SNP MEP Alyn Smith, SNP MP Joanna Cherry QC, briefly LibDem MP Christine Jardine, and was supported by Jolyon Maugham QC of the Good Law Project.

Mr Smith said the result was “a slam dunk for Scotland’s parliamentarians against a UK Government that has been arrogant and obstructive throughout this entire process”.

He said UK ministers had been given “a comprehensive skelp from the highest court in Scotland”, adding: “This is a considerable vindication – a total vindication of us bringing the case in the first place, a vindication of the way that we brought the case, a vindication of Scotland’s vote to remain, a vindication of Scotland’s position as an independent judiciary within the United Kingdom.”

Mr Wightman said the UK Government has been “thoroughly disrespectful to the cause we have promoted”.

He added: “It’s been a very nihilistic approach by the UK Government, and that was reflected again today.

“We’ll see what the expenses look like, but we’ve won the case and all the expenses have been awarded to the petitioners.”

Mr Greer said the UK Government had been “roundly humiliated and defeated”.

The case was originally heard in the Court of Session and two attempts by the UK Government to appeal against the referral to the European court were rejected.

UK ministers had argued it was a "hypothetical validity challenge”.

In a statement following its ruling on December 10, the ECJ said: "The full court has ruled that, when a member state has notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, as the UK has done, that member state is free to revoke unilaterally that notification.

"That possibility exists for as long as a withdrawal agreement concluded between the EU and that member state has not entered into force or, if no such agreement has been concluded, for as long as the two-year period from the date of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, and any possible extension, has not expired."

It added: "The revocation must be decided following a democratic process in accordance with national constitutional requirements. This unequivocal and unconditional decision must be communicated in writing to the European Council."

The UK Government has stressed it has no plans to revoke Article 50, but anti-Brexit campaigners say the law has now been clarified and remaining in the EU is a clear option.

Lawyers representing the Council of the European Union and from the European Commission had argued at a hearing at the ECJ in November that revocation is possible but would require unanimous agreement from all member states.

Andrew Webster QC, representing the UK Brexit Secretary, highlighted the petitioners had crowdfunded around £200,000 for their legal fees so the court could "take some comfort" in that.

The awards are to be split £60,000 and £45,000 between the two groups who were involved in the process.

Speaking outside the court, Mr Greer said: "Throughout this whole process we have seen the contempt the UK Government has shown us for attempting to lead them into finding some legal clarity here.

"In no other example we have found in modern history has a government anywhere gone to these lengths to limit their options, to limit the options of their own parliament.

"They have yet again been roundly defeated, we have opened up another avenue in the Brexit process.

"It's very much now a political process, not a legal process."

Motheroffourdragons · 20/12/2018 16:22

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Mistigri · 20/12/2018 16:23

I'm not sure bigger companies are necessarily all aware of Brexit risks.

I'm absolutely sure that all big companies are aware (perhaps not sufficiently aware), but the rest of what you say is true. Hard to prepare when you don't know what you are preparing for, and when the worst case scenario is so insane and also preventable (by the government).

I think it is fair to say that UK businesses did not for one moment believe that a Tory government would destroy their business models.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 16:23

howabout I'd already read page 24, but I still don't think it goes anywhere near an RoI / E26 border; just a few extra checks, which is sensible.
I thought I'd missed something else.

For the interim 9 months, that's fine - there is WTO provision for transition arrangements - but longterm doesn't look enough under WTO rules for EU borders that treat 3rd countries equally

re the landbridge, that's UK / EU, not RoI / E26:

I know Priti Patel and others want to use the landbridge as leverage, i.e. the RoI as hostage against the EU ,
but if the UK pressed that button, I expect it would start a full-on trade war, a disaster.
Besides, Ireland can feed 35 million, not just their 5 million, so it wouldn't be them going hungry.

If that's all the evidence he's got of an RoI / EU border, then sorry but I think I see a huge Brexiter axe being ground

Anyway, if the UK continues to flail around in all directions, we will probably find out what happens with No Deal.

My suspicion / fear is that there will be major shocks not just smashing the uk economy, but causing lesser shocks across the continent, maybe even the world.

Taking the world's #5/6 economy offline for an indefinite period is just not something that can adequately modelled or prepped for
Chaos theory 🤔

howabout · 20/12/2018 16:25

Also a "comprehensive skelping" for the Council of the European Union and the European Commission. Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 16:30

That's us told then: 🤔

Andrew Rothh@Andrew*__Roth

Putin criticizes possibility of a second referendum on Brexit, saying the people have spoken.
Adds if referendums repeated again and again: "Is this democracy?"

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 16:31

Also a "comprehensive skelping" for the Council of the European Union and the European Commission.

Who will sit across the 22 miles of Channel, quite safely. Even if a mob could be rabbled together to take on the dastardly Europeans, it would have to go past Westminster on the way ....

howabout · 20/12/2018 16:31

No wonder you are confused bigchoc. The Irish have done No Deal Contingency planning while at the same time maintaining their stance that the Backstop (apparently with or without a Deal) is the only solution - so much for the insurance policy which no-one will ever fall back on.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46630779

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 16:32

Incidentally. when was the UK so relaxed about being told what to do by foreign leaders when it came to domestic policy ? I must have missed the memo there.

turnipsaretheonlyveg · 20/12/2018 16:33

Ahh, Putin that world expert on democracy.

howabout · 20/12/2018 16:35

There are direct flights from Edinburgh to Europe DGR or the CoS could outsource the skelping to the ECJ Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 16:38

DG That ruling just seems to confirm the ECJ decision that A50 can be revoked

But like the ECJ, saying by "democratic process" doesn't spell out exactly how

If the HoC ever votes to revoke, is that legally binding ?
or is it as meaningful as Corbyn's original call for an NC vote against May

Maybe it's because I'm a scientist, but even to make a business case for a project , we state clear facts & processes, which actions to be taken and by whom.

I wish these lawyers & judges would actually state what specific actions must be taken to Revoke A50, who can / must take them - and if anyone else can do something to stop them.

EtVoilaBrexit · 20/12/2018 16:42

@PickardJE
Number 10 says officials are holding an emergency cross-Whitehall meeting of senior officials to discuss the Gatwick drones crisis: DFT, police, Home Office, civil contingency secretariat

Are they the same people who will deal with a No Deal Brexit contingency plans?? Grin

Hazardswan · 20/12/2018 16:45

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-conservative-labour-mp-theresa-may-eu-leave-remain-second-referendum-a8693181.html

Cross party amend debating on the 8th jan to try and put the breaks on no deal.

EtVoilaBrexit · 20/12/2018 16:48

Will Brexit result in more 'Skype families'?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46621762

I have to say I’m annoyed or rather quite angry.
I’ve always said, right from the time of the referendum, that this is exactly what would happened.
I’ve been told it would never be like this (incl by my MIL).
And now we seem to discover that treating eu citizens the same than non eu citizens means families WILL be separated. (Because I have no doubt that the mix between the SS and blunders from the HO will mean it will happen).
What did anyone who voted leave thought would happen? That the FOM would still be there somehow? Or is it that they actually have no idea of the way immigrants are actually treated?

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 16:50

What did anyone who voted leave thought would happen?

Careful with using the word "think" in there.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 16:51

howabout

  1. I think the Irish govt doesn't want to reveal their hand yet about what they would do about the border, in the event of No Deal.

Having seen how so many Brexiters immediately leapt on the EU contingency plans to say they've given in and we've got a managed No Deal, they are probably right.
Whatever plans they published could be used to increase the calls for the UK to just Leave.

There is no reasoning with Brexiters who only see themselves as either victims or victors:

When the EU don't move, they're inflexible.
When they act pragmatically, to limit damage to themselves, they've given in to the UK

  1. If anyone ever said the backstop would never be used, then they were not being truthful. Going too far to help May ?

An insurance policy is for an event which hopefully never happens, but may do.
If that emergency is impossible, then an insurance policy is unnecessary.

e.g. I have fire insurance, which I hope never to use, but none for a stampede by unicorns

The backstop is an insurance policy for the NI border, which would be activated at the end of the WA transition period if no deal has been reached.

It would probably also be tacked on to any trade deal, in case the UK ever withdraws from that

TatianaLarina · 20/12/2018 16:52

But like the ECJ, saying by "democratic process" doesn't spell out exactly how

Have to agree it doesn’t seem to have settled the Maugham vs Murray debate of vote vs legislation, which was what I was waiting for.

Murray’s view is based on the Miller ruling and the assumption that art50 was not unilaterally revokable. Which is now proved false.

But I’d like more clarity on the ‘democratic process’.

1tisILeClerc · 20/12/2018 16:54

I must say I am puzzled by the UK's negotiating stance in all this.
If I were wanting favours from someone I wouldn't go about it by being abusive, disrespectful, telling lies and delaying actions/plans beyond the last scheduled minute.
If you are going to 'fight' someone, you don't start by breaking your own legs.

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 16:59

I must say I am puzzled by the UK's negotiating stance in all this. If I were wanting favours from someone

Because the UK doesn't see them as "favours". It's our birthright by dint of ^being English" dontchaknow ?