Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

*Surely in the short term there will not actually be a massive trade from NI to Ireland/EU as certifications become invalid, until they get reestablished, thus not much to get across the border for a while.

In the automotive industry, I know some companies have already organised to have their products certified outside the U.K., with a company in the EU.
I suspect the big players have already done that to avoid any potential issue (and if brexit doesn’t happen, it won’t have an effect anyway - bar having taken their customs somewhere else...).

I also know some of them have ‘beefed up’ their stock to be able to carry on building too.

The ines who are going to struggle are the small companies. The ones who haven’t planned yet or don’t know how to approach the issue. Or d9nt have the spare money/space to set up some sort of contingency plan.

I suspect the big players have already done that to avoid any potential issue

Very quietly and with minimal fuss or attention.

Of course. Even within the company, it’s hardly talked about.... from what I can gather.

.

Irish Times: Detailled highlights of ireland's contingency plans

Exhaustive detail in the Times, but somehow mentions nothing about Ireland-E26 checks 🤔

I suppose Irish goods would just need certifying that there was nothing of GB origin,
so it would really only hit anyone with any British content - great incentive there never to buy British !

However, I would still expect a mention.
Could Adam Fleming be pulling our plonker / distorting wildly ?

@Howabout
can you give the page number where it is stated that there will be checks on goods to the E26 ?

139 pages is looong and I may have missed it, skimming through

https://merrionstreet.ie/MerrionStreet/en/News-Room/Releases/NoDeallBrexitContingencyyPlan.pdf

Denis Stauntonn@denisstaunton*

DUP’s Gregory Campbell asks cabinet office minister to ensure that civil servants are working to allow Northern Ireland to diverge from the rest of the UK on Air Passenger Duty and corporate tax (and to align more closely with Ireland).

< The DUP are Remoaners ! Traitors !

More seriously, it does illustrate how the DUP are Irish when it suits them to be - they don't want to share any of the shit they have helped bring down on people in GB >

I don't know if this brilliant piece by Bridget Phillipson (Sunderland South MP) has been posted

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/12/if-we-want-win-next-referendum-we-ll-need-better-campaign-last-one#amp

If we can’t – or won’t – make the case for the right to work and live across the European Union, then we won’t win either. Let us not pretend to our supporters either that ending free movement is desirable, or that even if it were, it is a realistic option we have within the European Union. Both are false. It is knowing the truth that sets us free. And it is telling the truth that makes us socialists rather than populists

“Vote to keep what you have, be afraid of change" is the same sort of miserable idea that flares up in the Labour Party like recurrent sciatica: that the dream we should place in front of the electorate is not of a better future but instead of an imagined past. Within our party this usually comes as calls for Labour to talk more about our history (or particular parts of our history), about family (or particular conceptions of family), about identity (usually white, always male, and usually blue-collar), and about the nation (usually just England)

The dishonesty about what causes strains on public services represents a fundamental loss of courage among too many on the centre-left. By telling people that changes in the quality of public services are caused by more people arriving, rather than by government decisions, we diminish our ability to point to the power of government to achieve change. A society where the most important structural lever to achieve social change is agreed to be the level of immigration, is a society which has given up on the state’s other levers for change.

Well worth reading inits entirety

lonely I will wave my flag double time on your behalf. Good luck with FIL, he’s the Leaver, isn’t he?

This is awful. Why don't the police step in? Are they waiting for another Jo Cox?

twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1075448896791474176

I really do start to despair.

DGR

Very quietly and with minimal fuss or attention.

And presumably bound by NDA.

Yes FiL is! I'm dreading it but I feel surrounded by them.

The no dealer family friends Mum on FB this morning said " you, lonely , live in a different world to the working class". She said that we need to produce all our medicines ourselves to create jobs as we hardly produce anything now except weapons. And that leaving the EU would solve everything flogged off by the Tories for their own gain. That Privatisation was not good for competition and that I can't have used train services lately otherwise I'd know.

She shut up when I reminded her I came from the same working class roots as her and that I was a single parent for 10 years etc.

The whole exchange has left me very disheartened. I think she's very typical. Two years in, all the evidence there is and a lot of leavers still believe leaving the EU will wave a magic wand to redress social inequality. But it will make it worse.

I especially hate the inference that I only care for self interest- because that's really not the case.

It makes me think why do I bother. Might as well go full on Mogg and look out for myself.

Very quietly and with minimal fuss or attention. And presumably bound by NDA.

The legality of which have yet to be tested in court ...

I was thinking more of the impossible-to-ever-prove ways ...

• not replacing retirees (amazingly easy when you can jiggle the job description to pretty much be unfillable); ditto for leavers.
• deferring big decisions (due diligence is you friend here)
• rescheduling payments to suppliers and terms of customers
• aggressive enforcement of company rules
• move to use external companies rather than in-house resources

Over 2 years, if a company of 3,000+ was unable to undertake any of those measures .... well they're unlikely to be a very successful company for very long.

Does anyone recall the UK government being accused of building a national infrastructure project outside of EU regulation in the 90s ? Loads of "local" road improvements which when joined with a marker pen revealed an East-West trunk road from Felixstowe ? (I think the A34 Newbury bypass was part of it ???). The principle is the same.

Keep only those workers who will have been employed after April 2017, so you can just sack them all after Brexit day

Thanks so much everyone for your kind messages! These things happen...
I went for a long lunch to cheer myself up. Something will come up! Fingers crossed. At least I have a home and food on the table!

Starting to see Brexit in meeting reports at work now eg clients not happy with the likely timescale of deliveries ex UK in the event of a hard brexit and also not happy about paying tariffs (we foot the bill or the business goes to a competitor in the EU).

Bigchoc Scotland already has devolved powers for Air Passenger Duty. As yet it has been unable to make use of them because of cut across with EU state subsidy regulations.

Scotland does not have devolved corporation tax powers but these were due to be handed to Stormont in 2018, if Stormont had been up and running.

None of this is Brexit related.

I read something today about small businesses (I have what's technically a micro business) are falling behind in their preparation because they haven't thought about what to do.

Haven't thought about it? I wish!!

I read something today about small businesses (I have what's technically a micro business) are falling behind in their preparation because they haven't thought about what to do.

A lot of businesses that operate in the c. "90+% efficiency" zone are going to struggle badly with any prepping. Maybe in better times, that would have been a job creator (I created my last job in such an environment ).

I know you live & work in France Misti but I hadn't realised it was at a subsidiary of a UK firm.

Bugger, I hope the business can stay viable longterm with tariffs, non-tariff barriers etc
More work required, which adds nothing to product value.

Your clients sound already aware of time penalties - were you giving them a headsup, or did they read the news and ask ?

Haven't thought about it? I wish!!

Well quite. But we're hardly going to go and spend a year's profit preparing for something which has every chance of never happening are we?

Cheap measures and a bit of preparedness for different scenarios is fine, but I'm not (yet) going to rent somewhere in Ireland just to keep my business free to operate in the EU.

howabout If Ireland can do it, then all that is stopping NI - or Scotland - from aligning with them is UK rules only, surely ?

The DUP tweet was because I was - maybe wrongly - assuming that the DUP was looking for ways to compensate for Brexit effects, so the NI people don't suffer as much overall, not that the tax was one of the effects

It's not a way open to GB, unless we want to swallow our pride and align with Ireland too

{The government is editing its own "no-deal" documents to remove the word "unlikely" in relation to Britain falling out of the EU without a agreement.

Sky News understands that the notices known as "technical papers" were quietly changed over the last 24 hours, as ministers activated full planning for the UK to leave the EU without a deal.}
Taken from SKY headlines.
Interesting!

But we're hardly going to go and spend a year's profit preparing for something which has every chance of never happening are we?

Peculiarly English attitude, I find.

By the same token, a lightening strike taking out an entire office also has every chance of never happening - yet disaster recovery and business continuity are still "things".

I managed to sneak "Alien Invasion" onto the last plan for business continuity I worked on. (Which proved that few people actually read the thing anyway). As I pointed out, whilst we don't know exactly what form an alien invasion might take, it would be a fair bet that the majority of staff would be unable to get to work. And we did have a plan for that.

imo, No Deal looks the most likely scenario now, ahead of the WA and far ahead of Remain.

If the EU is only a small part of your business, it may not be cost-effective to prep

if it's a significant part - well, I posted here when each in turn went bust:

2 micro businesses I used, niche online shops with about 5 employees,
both EMed customers saying it was because of Brexit ... that was just the Sterling drop and losing key E27 employees.

Many businesses run on a quite small % profit and some won't have big cash reserves,
so if they can't raise prices - because of foreign competitors - it's an early Good Night, Vienna.

iirc supermarkets only have about 5% profit on goods, one they've paid all their overheads, rent, utilities, staff etc.
but their rivals are also in the UK, so they can mostly raise prices.
So, a captive market.

I know you live & work in France Misti but I hadn't realised it was at a subsidiary of a UK firm.

UK listed but multinational. My job isn't directly at risk because the part of the business I work in is more global. But obviously knock-on effects and all that.

Clients are also mostly big companies and obviously very aware of Brexit risk.

Not sure how smaller companies prepare though; too costly, requires expertise they don't have. I think some with relocate but most will simply withdraw from doing European business at least in the short term (or if they are too reliant on EU clients they will go under).