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Brexit

Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/12/2018 23:10

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

OP posts:
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31
GaspodeWonderCat · 20/12/2018 12:05

Boxer rebellion - starving Chinese peasants vs imperialist Western powers. 1898-1900. See also 55 days in Peking with Charlton Heston. Could there be a case for 55 days in London with starving British peasants vs ???

prunemerealgood · 20/12/2018 12:06

DGRossetti I hadn't contemplated that reasoning and it's horrifying!

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:07

QuietRebel I'm so sorry 💐
Bloody awful Christmas present
I hope you can find another suitable job asap

Motheroffourdragons · 20/12/2018 12:10

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:10

howabout Your Qn:
"German changes to encourage more skilled worker immigration. Are they entering a bidding war with the UK?"
---
All Europe, including the UK have demographic problems, with a population that is aging,
that needs more professionals & skilled workers,
but where there are more unskilled people than suitable jobs for them, particularly because of automation

So skilled immigrants are an obvious solution.
Countries that offer the best pay and conditions will have a better chance of getting the "pick" of immigrants.

However, with billions of eager workers in India & China, millions with degrees,
there should be plenty of immigrants from there for everyone.

Germany
has the advantages of its powerful economy, the engineroom of Europe
which provides a wide choice wellpaid and satisfying career opportunities.

of excellent infrastructure and public services

It also has a strong currency, so pay is attractive

The use of English language is being used increasingly on official forms, business, even train announcements,
so it makes life easier for those who don't initilly speak German

Germany allows close family of non-EEA citizens to accompany them, providing the family as a whole is self-supporting.
i.e. No minimum income / wealth requirement for spouses.

German law is firm on not allowing rights to be removed retrospectively, so noone need worry that a change in govt polics will suddenly turn their lives upside down.

Maybe just as important:
successive government have been welcoming to immigrants. This is just a sustained push to increase numbers, but there has never been govt policy of a "hostile environment"

The UK
has the great advantage of the English language, which is a major consideration when making a new life far away.

That's it's only real advantage though

It is additionally a magnet because of having no ID and for non-contributory benefits,
but that means it tends to attract some immigrants that Germany wouldn't be looking for.

Disadvantages for immigrants:

Currency that has been devaluing relative to Germany since WW2, more sharply recently and may worsen

Ditto the economy

Class prejudice / not one of us / wrong school can be significant in career progression

Worst of all: years of a govt "hostile environment" to foreigners.

My Indian colleague tells me this has become well known in his country and he wouldn't have even considered the UK unless as a last resort.

The UK has the problem that large sections of the population and the govt hate immigration in principle.
This results in them being invited, but made clear to them they they are not actually wanted, whatever their nationality

This differs from the rest of the EU, where FOM for European citizens has never been an issue
and immigrants from India, China, S Korea etc are also generally welcomed
but those from the Middle East / North Africa are often not.

So, at least the UK has equal-opportunity xenophobia !

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 12:10

Presumably the opium wars are also covered ?

Messibhoy · 20/12/2018 12:18

What do the EU do about the Irish border if we leave with no deal?

bellinisurge · 20/12/2018 12:19

Adam Fleming is basically expecting ROI to maintain illegality to protect GFA. This is not a permanent solution and suggesting it as such is irresponsible and foolish. Any illegality is unpredictable and, frankly, I'm sure the Irish authorities are making law enforcement plans that they are not sharing.
How the UK will be able to maintain an illegal solution on its side is a mystery . And very risky.

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 12:24

The UK has the problem that large sections of the population and the govt hate immigration in principle.

Hate is taught.

DGRossetti · 20/12/2018 12:25

How the UK will be able to maintain an illegal solution on its side is a mystery

I imagine the Home Office will be giving lectures ?

bellinisurge · 20/12/2018 12:26

@Quietrebel - I'm really sorry about your news. Shitty timing. I hope you can get sorted soon.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:30

howabout My take on No Deal contingency plan for Ireland
is that there will be some controls at the NI border and some at the sea border to rEU,
but I haven't studied it yet - loooong !

Peter Martin@PJM2010 Replying to @adamfleming

I think you are overstating things by saying no hard border.
The Irish gov appends the EU document that makes it clear border controls will be required.
My reading is that there is no commitment not to introduce a hard border, just to try to avoid one if possible.

Hazardswan · 20/12/2018 12:35

quietrebel Flowers sorry to hear that. Hoping 2019 goes your way.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:40

howabout My reasoning why the RoI won't accept this combination of checks on both borders from GB
(btw, I would use some of the same logic if faced with a similar choice in my own life)

  1. These contingency plans are just an interim solution, a quick fix for a No Deal emergency
    So the RoI certainly doesn't want them fixed longterm in a UK deal.

  2. They want to push Westminster into a better deal later
    Giving in would mean there would never be one.

The UK would have won its cake and would never need budge on the border, rewarded for changing the status quo by Brexit.
Don't underestimate how pissed the Irish govt is by Westminster behaviour, the whole idea of Brexit and how they all ignored Ireland in choosing Brexit.

At least with No Deal, the Uk will be desperate and maybe will be driven to the negotiating table.
The disadvantages of having no deal with its 27 closest trading partners, trading later on WTO terms, will bite hard.

The Irish govt was supported by the vast majority of the population in this policy of not giving in to British demands- it might even be history:
800 years of being bullied by the UK could mean they would settle for something where they are hurt a bit, but the UK are hurt a lot more.

That could go down better with the public than surrendering to the British bully again.
This arrogant, aggressive govt and Brexit MPs like Priti Pratel have reminded the Irish again of what their ancestors suffered

howabout · 20/12/2018 12:41

Bigchoc in that case it is still a mystery why anyone EU or non-EU emigrates to the UK rather than Germany?

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:43

They may also have changed their opinion on Reunification:

Polls indicate Brexit would speed this up - a considerable increase in support is given in the event of No Deal.

So, it would happen sooner
and the RoI would be more willing than before to accept the financial cost - with EU help - if Partition is proving a costly drain too.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:45

Howabout I gave the main reason: language
That's huge, if you need to be fluent to do your job

Also, many would have extended family connections.

EtVoilaBrexit · 20/12/2018 12:48

I would add that for RoI, waiting until the uk is a No Deal land means they will have all the cards and the U.K. will be (or should be) desperate for any agreement

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:50

re EE immigrants in particular:

If Labour had implemented the same FOM restrictions on the new EE countries back in 2004,
then probably the UK now would have a comparatively small number.

However, a huge number of EE immigrants came to the UK before thy were allowed in almost all other eu countries.
So communities & connections were set up and this all become a magnet once FOM was allowed across the whole EU

EtVoilaBrexit · 20/12/2018 12:50

howabout I would image to the language.

When I speak to friends in France, no one quite believes me when I tell them how the uk treats migrants for example.
The U.K. had an image of been welcoming. And a land where you could set a business and thrive.

I susoectvthat image is going to be shattered (if it’s nit already the case)

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 12:52

Yes, I mentioned that this sank in some time ago in India,
but is only just sinking in for ordinary people in the EU

We've seen E27 immigration has plummeted since Brexit

1tisILeClerc · 20/12/2018 13:02

Surely in the short term there will not actually be a massive trade from NI to Ireland/EU as certifications become invalid, until they get reestablished, thus not much to get across the border for a while.
Existing trade is already established of course for a factory making widgets in NI currently has certification and assuming existing customers know what they usually receive. Yes there is opportunity for rogue operations but any company attempting fakes or whatever would realise that it will bite them eventually. Of course what happens to certificates and documentation is a big question but eventually resolveable.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/12/2018 13:08

Dan O'Brien (one of the tiny RoI minority who did NOT want the backstop to be a sticking point to any deal)
'We may one day look back on this year as one when a huge step was taken towards a united Ireland'

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-s-plans-for-a-no-deal-brexit-the-highlights-1.3737952?

2018 will be a year of real historical significance if it is come to be seen as marking the beginning of a move towards a united Ireland
There are reasons to believe that is indeed the case.

Northern nationalists are horrified by Brexit.
Many who had backed the current constitutional status quo have shifted towards favouring a united Ireland.

Some unionists - although it would be wrong to overstate the numbers - have come to question their position on the union with Britain, mostly because of Brexit,
and don't look south with the same dread and disdain as they once did.
....
If Brexit brought excessive consensus to the Republic, it has done the opposite in Britain.

The turmoil over the matter seems to have no end.
Two and half years on from the referendum on Britain's EU membership, and just 99 days away from the scheduled date of departure,
Brexit has caused divisions in British politics unlike any other issue in living memory.

Icantreachthepretzels · 20/12/2018 13:10

and there were questions about the Boxer Rebellion. Which I admit I am a bit weak on.

My knowledge on the boxer rebellion: It happened in 1900 in China. Spike killed his first vampire slayer during the boxer rebellion.

In fairness, practically everything I know I learned from Buffy - or QI

EtVoilaBrexit · 20/12/2018 13:27

Quietrebel I’m sorry :(