Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

Leclerc that’s the study I’m referring to

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/tory-austerity-deaths-study-report-people-die-social-care-government-policy-a8057306.html

indistinct "UK government can't run-down the clock because parliament takes control from 21st Jan if WA not voted on before then."

Most legal and political opinion I've read disagrees with your opinion:

The consensus is that the govt can run down the clock - if not brought down by the HoC
In the UK and on the continent, No deal and WA are thought about equally likely, with Revoke around 10% chance

The HoC seems against No Deal, but too chicken to say so. However, no consensus on Revoke - and over-turning the 2016 ref - yet.

The ECJ decision took away the basis of the Gina Miller win over Hoc right to invoke and may have changed what Uk courts decide the HoC can do.

The Jo Maugham A50 case running in the Scottish courts should determine exactly how / if the HoC can Revoke
and possibly what else, if anything it can do

However, we can expect govt appeals, so we don't know how long until a final decision has been reached

All this govt prepping to scare either us or the EU wouldn't work if LEGAL opinion was clear that they couldn't run down the clock.

One option is for the government to cover losses to holiday companies

Where the fuck is all this money coming from ? When people are forced to sleep rough.

Are you relying on Grieve amendment indistinct? If so think most likely outcome would be instructing Government to go back to renegotiate with the EU - ie more running the clock down. Can't currently see enough support for GE, 2nd Ref or Revoke / Extend.

UK Government has to propose alternative plan if WA not passed by parliament on or before 21 Jan. Think alternative plan is amendable by parliament ... not sure I fully understand what this means but seems that MPs have retained some control over the outcome if WA not passed. Don't think government can run down the clock but I may have misunderstood the Grieve amendments to the WA. Also, there's always a no confidence vote to force a change in direction.

DGR there would be no travel company losses because I would estimate the chances of EU27 blocking UK tourism at precisely nil. The Govt seems to be proposing an insurer of last resort role to oil the wheels.

The Grieve Amendment was completely nurfed by May's decision to delay the vote. Its now, in effect, null and void. It was only ever politically - not legally - binding.

Under EU No Deal Planning, UK airlines and haulage firms lose the right to cabotage in the EU
i.e. to transport people / goods from one part of the EU to the other

This can significantly affect profits or prices for haulage companies, because it can mean that on the journeys to / from the UK they travel empty

e.g. Normally once they deliver goods to say Cologne, if they haven't a return load from there to the UK, then they defary costs by another contract taking goods from Cologne to Paris.
With No Deal, they'd be empty all the way back from Cologne to the UK

Also, only UK goods the EU needs have "frictionless" travel across their borders
All the other UK goods - and services - are treated like those of any other 3rd country.
Possibly even worse, since the Uk may not initially be on the relevant EU databases.
That would include JIT

Can the govt cover losses to all these businesses ?
travel companies, airlines, haulage firms, producers of goods / services the EU doesn't need, ditto JIT ...

As well as running its shipping services and all its contingency plans ?

So did the Grieve Amendment only apply if the vote was held on 11th December, and is now void even if the vote does happen in January? I’d been forlornly hoping otherwise

DGR who the f* knows?
The priorities of this givernment are just mind boggling.

howabout I dint think it’s the eu stopping people going there that would be an issue.
It’s the issue if transport that makes the government think about telling people to cancel their hols. If the number if planes/boats/trains coming in and out are restricted already, you dont want people to use them for hols/futile reasons when that space could be use for food and medicines.

With my 'EU' head on, in a way the EU are being too generous with their 'no deal' proposals. Obviously it is in their interest to not literally slam the door just after midnight EU time as their preparations are not complete and there is too much stuff going on for nothing to be missed.
The 'concessions' they are allowing are UP TO the 9 month or 12 month expiries as applicable and importantly can be withdrawn at any moment at the EU's unilateral choice. Basically, bugger about and your out.
After this afternoons games in HoC maybe some need to take note and behave.
If the games do continue through February perhaps the tolerance to further disruption would get a lot shorter.
Of course the UK will wince at being told but then who bloody well started this?

Sorry your'e out.

The only No Confidence vote that would have any legal effect on the govt is an FTPA-binding one,
i.e. one that causes a GE within 14 days unless another govt is formed.

The DUP would not vote NC , because they risk losing their key position in giving the Tories a working majority
They also risk losing 2-3 marginal seats, including their deputy leader - their Brexit stance has hit their poll ratings

The Tories would not vote NC, because 57 Tory seats have majorities under 4,000 so those - and possibly more ! - are all vulnerable
and Labour could win

Agreed Bigchoc

LeClerc The EU are being adult & pragmatic
I would have been astonished if they had been vengeful at cost to their own members.

Their plans are what has been discussed widely in EU circles & media too:
Keep all they need, for only as long as they need it, no discussion with the UK on this, no consideration of UK needs.

The EU is NOT punishing the UK and never has done
It is just looking after its members
and neither helping nor punishing a soon to be 3rd country

spacechimp Grieve himself said that his amendment has only political effect, but was NOT legally binding

We told the staff in our company on Monday to keep telling people to book holidays as the flights will be fine. ABTA are also saying this. I mentioned a few months ago, behind the scenes this isn't the case and our company are making contingencies for people not being able to travel and redundancies in our company I'm privvy to the meetings. Unfortunately I'm still targeted on sales in Jan and there's no way I'll be able to tell people their flights are safe. Something has to give in the industry in general very soon and warnings have to be given.

So did the Grieve Amendment only apply if the vote was held on 11th December, and is now void even if the vote does happen in January? I’d been forlornly hoping otherwise

No. The delay means the requirement to come back to parliament to answer questions if there was a no deal situation, would come too late for parliament to be able to do much. I believe it would fall in the last week before 29th March.

There simply wouldn't be a legal requirement for the government to hold a parliamentary session - and politically there would be next to no time for anyone to provoke a situation which forced the government's hand to.

If it had been as scheduled, the potential to politically force the government's hand probably would have been there.

So the delay is hugely important and wrecked Grieve III's intent and purpose.

Under EU No Deal Planning, UK airlines and haulage firms lose the right to cabotage in the EU
i.e. to transport people / goods from one part of the EU to the other

This can significantly affect profits or prices for haulage companies, because it can mean that on the journeys to / from the UK they travel empty

No, that's not what cabotage is at all. It's the right of a truck registered in one member state to carry out domestic services within another member state. So (by way of a common example) a Polish-registered lorry delivering to Crewe can then do a delivery from Stoke to Birmingham and then another from Coventry to Dover. A delivery from Dover to Paris isn't classed as cabotage.

In fact UK hauliers make relatively little use of cabotage, simply because the whole haulage market is saturated with E European drivers doing exactly that. On the whole cabotage is viewed negatively by most UK hauliers.

EU contingency plans do not cover Gibraltar, Falklands, Anguilla or any other UK Overseas Territories

They drop out of all EU benefits / cover

Cyprus bases are ok

I can't see yet about the Channel Islands, which - before Brexit - have a different legal relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK has

also nothing about fishing ?

Fishes For UK haulage firms "Cabotage" inside the EU would be e.g from Cologne to Paris, as I quoted

I live and work in Germany
The UK haulage firm owner I know was worried about losing cabotage within the EU because he uses it!

Thanks BCF and Red
Is there anything that anyone in HoC can do now to stop No Deal if the WA doesn’t pass?

Losing cabotage: UK airlines would not be able to offer flights from one EU country to another

I think EasyJet already reorganised so they have a recognised EU HQ
Ryanair is Irish anyway, so won't be affected

BA - I don't know if they have reorganised to handle this yet - WIlly Walsh has up to now been in total denial that Brexit could ever affect flights,

So, all these EU subsidiaries of UK airlines will pay their tax to the relevant E27 government, instead of to the UK
Their new EU centres have the new jobs