Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

My guess with BA is that they will move to Spanish jurisdiction under the Spanish alliance group member. So following EasyJet's lead.

So, all these EU subsidiaries of UK airlines will pay their tax to the relevant E27 government, instead of to the UK. Their new EU centres have the new jobs

Pretty much.

It's an ill wind &c.

In 20 years time, it will look like Brexit was an EU plan all along ....

BCF
Although it is understandable as most posting on here are 'UKites' I am frustrated that there is a concept / theme that the EU 'owes' the UK anything and should be running around picking up the toys and trying to get the jam out of the carpet.

spacechimp
MPs can always no-confidence the government which seems improbable unless WA is rejected - think this is still a possibility as loyalty to government will waver as no-deal looms. BigChocFrenzy and RedToothBrush, surprised that the Grieve amendments are so pointless - my limited reading of this indicates the Government is not legally obliged to but is still intending to submit WA to vote on or before 21 Jan and will provide a statement of its intentions if it loses that vote which I believe is amendable by parliament. Agree that amendments are not legally binding but apparently have political significance (presumably breaking these make a no-confidence vote more likely).

For UK haulage firms "Cabotage" inside the EU would be e.g from Cologne to Paris, as I quoted

You're wrong. I work in transport and I'm a CPC holder.

Regulation (EC) No 1072/2009

‘cabotage operations’ means national carriage for hire or reward carried out on a temporary basis in a host Member State, in conformity with this Regulation.

Cologne to Paris is (obviously) international carriage and was already permitted before the cabotage rules were introduced.

After watching PMQ this afternoon I think I'm living in a parallel universe. Its unbelievable! Corbyn muttered stupid people not stupid woman and people having a go when less important things like the country in crisis is happening is a real pantomine!

Stupid people.....They should take that as a compliment. I can't repeat what I think of them

In July 2017, easyJet announced that it has applied for, and was subsequently granted by the Ministry of Transport, an Austrian Air Operator Certificate (AOC) and operating permit, thereby establishing easyJet Europe. The new airline is headquartered in Vienna, and will allow easyJet to continue operating flights across and within European countries after the UK leaves the EU. The first aircraft, an Airbus A320, was re-registered as OE-IVA. [56]
Per wiki:
"EasyJet announced that there will be no job losses in the UK, as the staff to be employed by easyJet Europe are already based in the EU27. easyJet UK staff will continue to be based in Luton. The group will thus comprise three airlines, easyJet UK, easyJet Europe, and easyJet Switzerland, all of which are owned by easyJet plc, which is itself EU owned and controlled, listed on the London Stock Exchange, and based in the UK."

This is how restructuring to comply with EU regulation works - no UK job or tax losses.

But without Brexit there is no need for a UK airline to have a EU MS headquarters for that part of the operation that services european (non-UK) destinations. So it is not EU regs driving the EasyJet restructure it is Brexit.

It is all just so depressing and anxiety inducing now. High stakes.

I really wish that someone, anyone, would come along and outline the benefits of this clusterfk to me and everyone else who is an observer of this shit storm.

I know Christmas is around the corner, and that might keep us ok for a couple of days, but the dreaded January blues will come quite soon too. Compounded by all this uncertainty. And for what? I really need to know the answer to that.

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/just-get-on-with-it-say-turkeys-20181219180704

Not sure about tax losses - would the EU HQ not have to pay tax on EU operations to Austrian gov where presumably that's currently going to UK?
Job losses? Maybe not for airlines (though would expect more of the new jobs to go to EU operations) but would expect some job impacts in other domains in particular UK exporters to EU and manufacturers involved in EU supply chains. Is there a way for car manufacturers to avoid the tariff and non-tariff barriers coming their way in the event of no-deal without moving operations to the EU?

This is how restructuring to comply with EU regulation works - no UK job or tax losses.

DH's company has been restricted in exactly this way.

However the location of data will be a huge problem in the case of data deal. If DH needs to access something in the EU he'd have to fly there to do so.

Atm, he's travelling a lot as it is (he's had four trips to the EU in the last month) but his company are yet to move data so they will comply with the law if no deal happens.

They are now in the process of working out the practicalities of this.

It's starting to feel like our choice to emergency exit, will not be a choice. Its sounding a lot like the EU branch of the company are sweet talking with a view to poaching DH.

The EU market is simply bigger than the UKs so DH is of far more value if he is located in the 'right' location.

For me, whilst I want and very much appreciate the safety net we have (knowing how few people do have that), the idea that the choice might be removed from us is not something I'm entirely happy about. Merely because it feels like our freedom over the matter has been removed.

I do not

A nice summary of the situation

I do not want to feel like we have been forced to leave and that would add to that feeling.

This is becoming increasingly frustrating. Watching May ridicule Corbyn for cheap laughs today, while we descend into chaos, was sickening. I'm not a Corbyn fan, but I share his anger.
The tactics are dirty- delay the 'meaningful vote" so that time runs out, while bluffing- we hope- with no deal preparations. Parliament will be forced into voting for the dodgy deal, despite it being wanted by NOBODY!

Just re that statement about good luck in relocating Whiskey production from Scotland.

In the late 19th and early 20th Century, Ireland was the big producer of Whiskey. Subsequent bootleg to the US during prohibition and a trade war with the rUK after Independence wrecked the name and quality of the product and the outlet. Indeed, in some circumstances counterfeit whiskey was being traded as Irish during prohibition in the US. I think Scottish whisky makers adopted some innovative distilling techniques during that time as well.

So, one might have said 'good luck' with relocating production of Whiskey from Ireland at the end of the C19th. But being in a better position to adopt innovation and an umbrella of better political circumstances gave Scottish Whisky a platform from which to blossom. And access to more protected markets.

As shown from the taking over by Scotland from Ireland; never say never. In fact, I believe the best rated Whiskey in the world is now produced in Japan. So the e or absence in the adopted English phonetic take on Uisge Beatha may be a source of contention no more. It may have an Asian flavour for a while.

Entertaining to look at the comments in the 'Fail'.
Headline about Mr Barnier's doomsday plan.
Those commenting have no bleeding clue, accusing Mr Barnier of punishing the UK.
Can I get 'In the night garden' on Youtube, I feel the need to watch something intellectual.

www.ft.com/content/b97e6516-8a23-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

<span class="italic">Scotch lovers might take issue with this definition. But Irish whiskey’s reputation as the “mellow spirit” was one that helped it become, for a period in the 19th century, the world’s biggest-selling whisky — even bigger than Scotch. By 1900, Ireland’s 80-plus distilleries were producing more than half of all whisky sold in the world. Dublin, in particular, was famous for its whiskey, thanks to companies such as Jameson, Powers and George Roe & Co, which all had vast distilleries there. (It was about this time that the Irish also began spelling their whiskey with an “e” — supposedly as a way of differentiating it from “inferior” Scotch.)</span>

Yet in the decades that followed, Irish whiskey went into dramatic decline. No one can agree quite why. Some blame Prohibition in the US, which has always been an important market for Irish whiskey, others cite the economic impact of the Irish war of independence. Ireland’s stubborn refusal to adopt the Coffey column still — an Irish-born piece of technology that, ironically, helped Scotch distillers make blended whisky on an unprecedented scale — certainly didn’t help.

Coffey column still. That is the innovation I couldn't remember.

The world doesn't stand still.

I do not want to feel like we have been forced to leave and that would add to that feeling.

Not just forced, bullied.

Nothing good can ever come of bullying half your unwilling populace into submission. Historically that's never ended well, ever.

People worry about civil unrests from motley Leavers if they don't get eat they want, they should really consider the fury of the Remainers and soft Brexiters with these mad crypto-Fascists

@1tisILeClerc

There you go then...

www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b&q=in+the+night+gsrdenyoutube

Lots of choices - make sure it's a good'un

Fishes "Cabotage" by general international definition = "the right to operate sea, air, or other transport services within a particular territory"

I - and my haulage acquaintance - use it in the sense of UK firms being able to transport goods within the territory of the EU,
as distinct from other journeys from / to the UK and an EU destination.

I have lurked on Leaver Richard North's blog for over 2 years and posters there who are customs agents and traders habitually use the term "cabotage" - including today - and say that the UK will lose "cabotage" for road and air.

So, I'll keep using the internationally recognised term the same way they do, regardless of your posts.

Under the EU contingency plans, UK firms can only transport goods / people either from the UK to an EU country,
or vice versa

BUT - unless they have EU subsidiaries set up - UK firms will no longer be able to fulfill contracts to carry goods / people from one EU destination to another, whether that be inside one EU country, or from one EU country to another.

Airlines like BA or Easyjet who currently have cabotage within the EU, e.g. if they have Paris to Frankfurt flights,
can organise legally to continue doing this.

My acquaintance has too small a business and too small EU contracts for this to be viable.

Until the referendum, he had contracts to carry goods from the UK to Germany and then the return journey.
BUT sometime after the referendum, German firms started removing British goods from their supply chain

This has been reported in the business sections of German newspapers, so not just his experience

He had no more contracts from Briitish firms, so to keep his contract with the Geman firms viable, his trucks on the return journey to the UK take goods from one EU destination to another, what he and I call "cabotage" according to its general useage.

He will no longer be able to do this after No Deal

I don't know whether Eddie Stobart does the same at all, or if Stobart trucks run to / from UK destinations.
Anyway, Stobart is big enough to have an EU subsidiary, so should be OK:

Felixstowe, the UK’s biggest container port, was reported as being in chaos for months after they had a new software system.
So I'm not optimistic about any IT solutions to the necessary changes in the time available