Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

I spend the majority of my time like this these days ——> 🤦‍♀️

Important to remember that longterm English / UK policy - going back centuries - is

to prevent a united power block forming in Europe

England / Uk has therefore historically tried to stir up trouble

This would continue with a No Deal, as the UK would be desperately weakened
and also if there is a Revoke / Invoke cycle

Otherwise, as happened when the UK founded EFTA, the UK is marginalised and has to be part of the EU

It is noticeable that many Brexiters want not just Brexit, but also for the EU to be destroyed

That's not just blind xenophobia - at least not from the leaders and the intelligent Leavers -

It is because as long as the EU exists as a trading superpower, the UK would only become weaker until forced to Rejoin

So, a successful and lasting Brexit - that does not include a Brino SM+CU - would have wrecking the EU as a 1st or 2nd step

UK Goods exports to EU = £145bn
UK Services exports to EU = £90bn

UK Goods exports to Non EU = £157bn
UK Services exports to Non EU = £155bn

From those 2016 figures, the value of our goods exports to the EU far outweighs the values of our services exports.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/714346/180606_UK_Trade_in_Numbers_full_web_version.pdf

india wasnt that far behind and we dropped below france in q2 @howabout - have you forgotten that at the start of this clusterf*ck we were the fastest growing economy in europe then dropped to virtual stagnation - its that period we wont make up - and we havent left yet.

when (not if - given they have the eu behind them) italy recovers it will be brazil we have on our heels - unless this mess is sorted we'll be outside the top 10 before the end of the next parliament.

Services
Yes the EU has only limited services between member countries

However, the EU has far more of a services market than any other trading bloc or deal in the world:

Exporting services from the UK to say India, China is v v difficult because they always demand the services in their own country
Exporting services to the US is difficult because of the procurement rules of most states which over-write any federal trade deal
etc for other countries

A services market is always limited because of language and location

• much of any country's services is internal anyway like care services, hairdressers, nails, coffee bars, restaurants, shops etc

However, it is very difficult to separate goods from associated services
e.g. selling software / IT systems then has updates, support / helpdesk, training ....

and many manufactured goods have warranties, spare parts, financing ...

• car manufacturers gain much of their profits from services, not cars; some, iirc Ford, actually make more from services.

So, exported goods are often an essential enabler of exported services

Read this last week and thought of all the people happy to base their World view on one quarter's GDP comparisons.

www.arbuthnotlatham.co.uk/news-and-insights/the-uk-is-a-significant-second-tier-world-economy-on-any-measurement/?platform=hootsuite

"The OECD expects the UK will continue losing share up to and including 2030-2040 as world growth outstrips UK growth, though the UK would clearly remain a sizeable and growing world economy. Thereafter, the OECD is increasingly sanguine about prospects. The UK could maintain, if not regain, share as growth equals, if not exceeds, world growth. Germany’s growth rate, meanwhile, is expected to sag, reflecting adverse demographics."

Whether we are in or out of the EU will make very little difference in the long run.

Brexiters in govt, previously Boris, DD, Raab etc, have always been delusional that the EU will blink and abandon the RoI,
also give them all the EU bennefits they like without the 4 pillars

They have been particularly delusional that the RoI will roll over, because they can be isolated

It is possible that
either
the Uk has secretly negotiated with the RoI over something they might accept
or
that the EU has decided to abandon Ireland

BUT, I would actually need to see the changed WA text from the EU before I would believe it

Up to now, the EU have been 100% clear that they will not negotiate to weakken / time limit the backstop in any way
it would do them serious & lasting damage to abandon Ireland

and I don't know what the UK could offer Ireland to agree

• my proposal would be 40 years joint UK / RoI rule of NI so that there is never an abrupt change at reunification, but the Unionist communities get used to the RoI partly ruling, with still a cushion of GB partly ruling too

However, I doubt the Tories or DUP would agree to that

So, I expect the EU will happily give some flowery phrases - for everyone to save fce - but no change in the llegally binding biit of the text

As globalisation continues to enable developing countries to increase the size fo their economies,

it is inevitable that the % of world GDP by "Western countries" becomes ever smaller.

This is even predicted for Germany
and certainly all the reputable economists - not the Minford / UK nationalist / hard right crowd / howabout's "private bankers" -
agree this holds for the UK

The UK has structural problems in its economy & society, so has been falling behind Germany for over a century,
both before and during EU membership

EU membership has papered over the cracks
So I can understand - but disagree with - those who say they want Brexit to make the social & economic problems obvious, in order to tackle them,
but I totally disagree with the idea that Brexit alone could do this

Total^ GDP = GDP per head x No. of heads !^

Germany's demographics issue is that their population is expected to reduce from the current 80 million to 55 million over the next decades
Hence Merkel's - and most other german politicians', to be fair - initial eagerness to grab any young refugess / migrants

The UK's population, however - because of high immigration - is expected to slightly increase
However, that assumes that the current immigration policy remains and that millions of generally younger EU immigrants don't leave while young^

So, the UK's total GDP might indeed get to German total levels if the population estimates - made well before Brexit - actually hold.

However, this could happen without improving UK's structural economic & social problems,
hence without GDP per head

It is also possible that the UK falls behind because these problems worsen when continually not tackled
and especially that Brexit would worsen them

e.g. Carney says that a No Deal Brexit could mean that UK GDP won't regain current levels until 2024
and R North says Carney might be too optimistic, because noone can model chaos

Typical view from inside the EU:

If the EU plan a U-turn, they obviously haven't told the policy wonks closest to them

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre, Brussels)

BBC- Brexit: 'Horrified' firms warn time is running out
(link: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46610792)
bbc.com/news/business-… UK Government is telling firms to activate their no deal contingency plans.
UK has now reached a point where it is actively self-harming yet Brexiteers still claim #Brexit is in the national interest

Of the 52% Leave vote I would think only the hardcore UKIP contingent (about 5% of the electorate) really care about Leaving. However most of the other 47% voted for CHANGE not a decade of political paralysis.

YY I fully agree with that.
Which why I would advocate for a totally different way of looking at brexit.
But to do that we need time which we will never have with No Deal.

EU will give her something but will wait to the last minute

More unicorns ...

The opinions of cabinet ministers with regards to what the EU will and won't do ("Easiest deal in history", "row of the summer" etc) have consistently been wrong.

I would advocate for extending article 50 if I thought we could ever reach a consensus but I don't see how we ca until people start telling the truth and stop playing games (not that I think EU would agree to extend anyway, for reasons given above, and that's fair enough).

howabout
Germany’s growth rate, meanwhile, is expected to sag, reflecting adverse demographics."
That comment stands out for me.

The natality rate in the U.K. is driven by ‘immigrants’ whereas Germany has been struggling in that side for a long time. But this is also why Germany was so keen to actually welcome some of the immigrants from Syria a couple of years ago.
On the other side, the UK seems to be on target to reduce the arrival of immigrants or really limit the length of their stay (5years from what I gather in the White Paper). This isn’t gong to be conductive to a higher natality rate.

So it make me wonder what is behind that analysis....

Especially as there are no other economies that are doing well but aren’t either a really big country by themselves (eg USA but also China and India) or part of a group of countries (the EU).

Xpost BCF i think we say the same thing....

EtVoila I don't want the UK to in effect move backwards, to being less of an advanced economy and more of a declining country,
with ever lower comparative wages, lower rights, but higher population

That's the ERG dream of "Singapore-on-Thames"

That's aiming for the developing country model, but without tackling the UK's fundamental problems we just decline instead

More likely to become "Mombai-on-Thames"

Also, as UC bites, as welfare is slashed, nhs is slashed
childcare and provision for sen becomes ever less available ..

As more poor and even middle class families can't afford to have kids

the UK demographics may worsen

We shouldn't have to remind Brexiters on a parents' site that parents aren't supported nearly enough

Etvoila the article is paraphrasing the OECD.

Whether we are in or out of the EU will make very little difference in the long run.

But meanwhile, my infant grandson has to wait until he is a young adult in either his late teens at best or twenties at worst before he lives in a country with a thriving economy. Thanks a bunch, Leavers. You promised us easy deals and how they needed us more than we needed them - it's up to you to make good on your promises now not in a generation's time.

If any of you are interested in football I recommend the Netflix show Sunderland Till I Die. It is not directly about leavers, but Sunderland Football club in Championship season 2017/18. All bleak and hopeless and very sad with Sunderland suffering a second consecutive relegation. The supporters give a fantastic insight into what is going on with the left behind. Also some of the entitled Southern footballers. Shocking.

Which is precisely why the WA and endless fudge is a terrible idea Peregrina.

Actually should add I have 2 teenagers and an 8 year old who can barely remember anything but ideological austerity and jam tomorrow.

And no one else has @howabout ? You have bought the lie that austerity is the EU's fault. Ok, we all do stupid deluded things. Supporting No Deal is next level deluded.
You think it's shit now?

Which is precisely why the WA and endless fudge is a terrible idea Peregrina.

So crashing out is better?

{I would LOVE a Revoke with promises to rebuild the UK as a fairer society AND to finally become an whole-hearted member of the EU, no more whingeing & hate}

So would I but it is less likely than me winning the lottery AND Miss World contest.
The UK does not have the political conviction to Revoke and make a proper job of it, 40 years of whinging 'prove' it. Like Germany in WW2, the UK needs to be 'broken' properly before it can pull itself to it's senses. Doing this without a massive increase in unnecessary deaths is the tricky bit.